**Persistent high-pressure patterns and a developing European heat dome are positioning Madrid for peak temperatures near 39–40 °C on August 13.** Official long-range guidance from AccuWeather and AEMET places daily highs across central Spain in the upper 30s to low 40s °C through mid-month, driven by southerly advection of hot, dry air from North Africa combined with clear skies and strong solar insolation under the ridge. Ensemble model consensus for the 13th clusters around 38–41 °C, consistent with the market-implied probabilities that heavily favor 39 °C (49.5 %) and 40 °C (39.5 %). Recent model runs show limited spread, with only modest downside risk below 38 °C and low but non-zero upside potential above 41 °C if the ridge strengthens further. Historical August climatology (average high ~32–33 °C) underscores how anomalous the current setup is, while ongoing heatwave conditions across Iberia reinforce trader expectations that the day will resolve near the upper end of the typical summer range rather than extreme outliers. Updated AEMET and ECMWF guidance ahead of the 13th remain the key near-term catalysts.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoTemperatura mais alta em Madrid a 13 de agosto?
Temperatura mais alta em Madrid a 13 de agosto?
39°C 50%
40°C 40%
38°C 7%
41°C 5%
NOVO
NOVO
13 ago 2026
35°C or below
1%
36°C
1%
37°C
3%
38°C
7%
39°C
50%
40°C
40%
41°C
5%
42°C
2%
43°C
1%
44°C
<1%
45°C ou mais
<1%
39°C 50%
40°C 40%
38°C 7%
41°C 5%
NOVO
NOVO
13 ago 2026
35°C or below
$47 Vol.
1%
36°C
$83 Vol.
1%
37°C
$144 Vol.
3%
38°C
$139 Vol.
7%
39°C
$211 Vol.
50%
40°C
$443 Vol.
40%
41°C
$98 Vol.
5%
42°C
$122 Vol.
2%
43°C
$76 Vol.
1%
44°C
$171 Vol.
<1%
45°C ou mais
$44 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Persistent high-pressure patterns and a developing European heat dome are positioning Madrid for peak temperatures near 39–40 °C on August 13.**
Official long-range guidance from AccuWeather and AEMET places daily highs across central Spain in the upper 30s to low 40s °C through mid-month, driven by southerly advection of hot, dry air from North Africa combined with clear skies and strong solar insolation under the ridge. Ensemble model consensus for the 13th clusters around 38–41 °C, consistent with the market-implied probabilities that heavily favor 39 °C (49.5 %) and 40 °C (39.5 %).
Recent model runs show limited spread, with only modest downside risk below 38 °C and low but non-zero upside potential above 41 °C if the ridge strengthens further. Historical August climatology (average high ~32–33 °C) underscores how anomalous the current setup is, while ongoing heatwave conditions across Iberia reinforce trader expectations that the day will resolve near the upper end of the typical summer range rather than extreme outliers. Updated AEMET and ECMWF guidance ahead of the 13th remain the key near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercado Aberto: Aug 11, 2026, 1:03 AM ET
Volume
$1,578Data de Término
13 ago 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 11, 2026, 1:03 AM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Persistent high-pressure patterns and a developing European heat dome are positioning Madrid for peak temperatures near 39–40 °C on August 13.**
Official long-range guidance from AccuWeather and AEMET places daily highs across central Spain in the upper 30s to low 40s °C through mid-month, driven by southerly advection of hot, dry air from North Africa combined with clear skies and strong solar insolation under the ridge. Ensemble model consensus for the 13th clusters around 38–41 °C, consistent with the market-implied probabilities that heavily favor 39 °C (49.5 %) and 40 °C (39.5 %).
Recent model runs show limited spread, with only modest downside risk below 38 °C and low but non-zero upside potential above 41 °C if the ridge strengthens further. Historical August climatology (average high ~32–33 °C) underscores how anomalous the current setup is, while ongoing heatwave conditions across Iberia reinforce trader expectations that the day will resolve near the upper end of the typical summer range rather than extreme outliers. Updated AEMET and ECMWF guidance ahead of the 13th remain the key near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,578Data de Término
13 ago 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 11, 2026, 1:03 AM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Persistent high-pressure patterns and a developing European heat dome are positioning Madrid for peak temperatures near 39–40 °C on August 13.** Official long-range guidance from AccuWeather and AEMET places daily highs across central Spain in the upper 30s to low 40s °C through mid-month, driven by southerly advection of hot, dry air from North Africa combined with clear skies and strong solar insolation under the ridge. Ensemble model consensus for the 13th clusters around 38–41 °C, consistent with the market-implied probabilities that heavily favor 39 °C (49.5 %) and 40 °C (39.5 %). Recent model runs show limited spread, with only modest downside risk below 38 °C and low but non-zero upside potential above 41 °C if the ridge strengthens further. Historical August climatology (average high ~32–33 °C) underscores how anomalous the current setup is, while ongoing heatwave conditions across Iberia reinforce trader expectations that the day will resolve near the upper end of the typical summer range rather than extreme outliers. Updated AEMET and ECMWF guidance ahead of the 13th remain the key near-term catalysts.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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