A strong heatwave over France has driven trader focus on elevated overnight lows for Paris on August 13, with model consensus from Météo-France and ECMWF pointing to a minimum near 20–22°C. Persistent warm advection and limited nocturnal radiative cooling under clear skies have kept air masses unusually mild, while Paris’s urban heat island effect further suppresses temperature drops compared with surrounding rural areas. Recent runs show little change in the 850 hPa thermal ridge through the 13th, reducing the chance of cooler readings below 20°C or spikes above 22°C. The implied probabilities cluster tightly around 20–21°C because those values align with ensemble guidance and historical analogs for late-summer heat events, with any last-minute model shift in boundary-layer moisture or wind likely to be the next catalyst ahead of resolution.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoTemperatura mais baixa em Paris no dia 13 de agosto?
Temperatura mais baixa em Paris no dia 13 de agosto?
21°C 42%
20°C 31%
19°C 16%
22°C 8%
NOVO
NOVO
13 ago 2026
18°C ou menos
3%
19°C
16%
20°C
31%
21°C
42%
22°C
8%
23°C
6%
24°C
2%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C ou mais
<1%
21°C 42%
20°C 31%
19°C 16%
22°C 8%
NOVO
NOVO
13 ago 2026
18°C ou menos
$168 Vol.
3%
19°C
$245 Vol.
16%
20°C
$87 Vol.
31%
21°C
$623 Vol.
42%
22°C
$209 Vol.
8%
23°C
$73 Vol.
6%
24°C
$395 Vol.
2%
25°C
$376 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$275 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$26 Vol.
<1%
28°C ou mais
$26 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.A strong heatwave over France has driven trader focus on elevated overnight lows for Paris on August 13, with model consensus from Météo-France and ECMWF pointing to a minimum near 20–22°C. Persistent warm advection and limited nocturnal radiative cooling under clear skies have kept air masses unusually mild, while Paris’s urban heat island effect further suppresses temperature drops compared with surrounding rural areas. Recent runs show little change in the 850 hPa thermal ridge through the 13th, reducing the chance of cooler readings below 20°C or spikes above 22°C. The implied probabilities cluster tightly around 20–21°C because those values align with ensemble guidance and historical analogs for late-summer heat events, with any last-minute model shift in boundary-layer moisture or wind likely to be the next catalyst ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercado Aberto: Aug 11, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$2,504Data de Término
13 ago 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 11, 2026, 12:30 AM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPBResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.A strong heatwave over France has driven trader focus on elevated overnight lows for Paris on August 13, with model consensus from Météo-France and ECMWF pointing to a minimum near 20–22°C. Persistent warm advection and limited nocturnal radiative cooling under clear skies have kept air masses unusually mild, while Paris’s urban heat island effect further suppresses temperature drops compared with surrounding rural areas. Recent runs show little change in the 850 hPa thermal ridge through the 13th, reducing the chance of cooler readings below 20°C or spikes above 22°C. The implied probabilities cluster tightly around 20–21°C because those values align with ensemble guidance and historical analogs for late-summer heat events, with any last-minute model shift in boundary-layer moisture or wind likely to be the next catalyst ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$2,504Data de Término
13 ago 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 11, 2026, 12:30 AM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPBResolver
0x69c47De9D...A strong heatwave over France has driven trader focus on elevated overnight lows for Paris on August 13, with model consensus from Météo-France and ECMWF pointing to a minimum near 20–22°C. Persistent warm advection and limited nocturnal radiative cooling under clear skies have kept air masses unusually mild, while Paris’s urban heat island effect further suppresses temperature drops compared with surrounding rural areas. Recent runs show little change in the 850 hPa thermal ridge through the 13th, reducing the chance of cooler readings below 20°C or spikes above 22°C. The implied probabilities cluster tightly around 20–21°C because those values align with ensemble guidance and historical analogs for late-summer heat events, with any last-minute model shift in boundary-layer moisture or wind likely to be the next catalyst ahead of resolution.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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