Current National Weather Service and NOAA ensemble guidance supports New York City overnight lows on August 13 most likely in the low-to-mid 70s, reflecting limited radiative cooling under partly cloudy skies, persistent southwesterly warm-air advection, and elevated dew points typical of late-summer conditions. This positions the 72–75°F range as the market consensus, well above the historical average low near 69°F for the date. Warmer-than-average monthly outlooks and recent model runs showing highs in the mid-to-upper 80s further reduce the chance of significant cooling, though scattered showers could introduce minor variability in final Central Park readings.