**Official forecasts position 32–34°C as the most likely range for Seoul/Incheon’s daily maximum on August 12.** The Korea Meteorological Administration’s short-range outlook projects a high of 34°C under mostly clear to cloudy skies with only a 10% chance of precipitation and light winds, consistent with late-summer patterns of diurnal heating under subtropical high pressure. Ensemble guidance from global models shows limited spread around this value, with no strong cold front or typhoon influence expected in the next 48 hours. Historical August climatology for the region centers near 31–32°C, so current model consensus slightly above average supports the market’s heaviest trading on 32°C (41%) and 33°C (26.5%), while the lower 10% implied probability on 34°C reflects residual uncertainty in exact timing of peak heating and local urban heat-island effects. Updated model runs and KMA briefings on August 11–12 will be the key near-term catalysts.