Recent forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory and models indicate overnight lows near 27–28°C for August 14 amid scattered showers and a weakening heat spell, supporting the tight clustering around 27°C (38% implied probability) as the leading outcome. Persistent high humidity and cloud cover from tropical moisture limit radiative cooling, while any stronger rain bands could nudge minima toward 26°C by enhancing evaporative effects. Historical August baselines average 26–27°C lows, but the current pattern of suppressed monsoon flow and urban heat retention keeps probabilities distributed across 26–28°C thresholds. Updated NHC and local guidance on storm tracks or convection intensity expected in the next 24 hours will refine these estimates ahead of resolution.