NOAA’s September 10 outlook assigns a 75% chance that the October–December 2026 three-month Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI) will reach or exceed +2.5 °C, the threshold defining a historic event stronger than any since 1950. Current conditions support this view: weekly Niño-3.4 anomalies have climbed to +2.9 °C, with eastern Pacific values surpassing +3 °C, while subsurface heat content remains exceptionally elevated. Multiple ensemble systems, including GFDL SPEAR and the North American Multi-Model Ensemble, place the peak near or above prior records on both conventional and relative indices. Traders therefore assign the “Yes” side a 73.5% implied probability, reflecting the narrow but real window for forecast revision as the event approaches its likely November–December maximum.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoO El Niño de 2026–27 será o mais forte já registrado?
O El Niño de 2026–27 será o mais forte já registrado?
Sim
74% chance
NOVO
NOVO
31 mar 2027
Sim
74% chance
NOVO
NOVO
31 mar 2027
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño is above 2.40°C, the highest Regional Ocean Niño Index (RONI) value on record. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The peak RONI is the single highest RONI value reported by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) across the overlapping three-month seasons ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, and DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates. The record to beat is +2.40°C, set in DJF 1982-83, the highest RONI value for any three-month season in CPC's record. A peak RONI of exactly 2.40°C ties the record and resolves this market to "No".
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs this market's resolution. This market may resolve immediately upon NOAA's first publication of a RONI value of above 2.40°C for any listed season.
If CPC's RONI dataset becomes temporarily unavailable, this market may be extended for up to 7 days. If CPC's RONI dataset is permanently discontinued, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. If the dataset remains unavailable after 7 days and there is no consensus of credible reporting, this market resolves to "No".
No subsequent revision to a season's value will be considered or will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published. The +2.40°C threshold is fixed for the purposes of this market; any later revision to a historical season's RONI value will not change it.
The resolution source for this market is the official NOAA CPC RONI updates, available here: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/NOAA’s September 10 outlook assigns a 75% chance that the October–December 2026 three-month Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI) will reach or exceed +2.5 °C, the threshold defining a historic event stronger than any since 1950. Current conditions support this view: weekly Niño-3.4 anomalies have climbed to +2.9 °C, with eastern Pacific values surpassing +3 °C, while subsurface heat content remains exceptionally elevated. Multiple ensemble systems, including GFDL SPEAR and the North American Multi-Model Ensemble, place the peak near or above prior records on both conventional and relative indices. Traders therefore assign the “Yes” side a 73.5% implied probability, reflecting the narrow but real window for forecast revision as the event approaches its likely November–December maximum.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño is above 2.40°C, the highest Regional Ocean Niño Index (RONI) value on record. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The peak RONI is the single highest RONI value reported by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) across the overlapping three-month seasons ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, and DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates. The record to beat is +2.40°C, set in DJF 1982-83, the highest RONI value for any three-month season in CPC's record. A peak RONI of exactly 2.40°C ties the record and resolves this market to "No".
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs this market's resolution. This market may resolve immediately upon NOAA's first publication of a RONI value of above 2.40°C for any listed season.
If CPC's RONI dataset becomes temporarily unavailable, this market may be extended for up to 7 days. If CPC's RONI dataset is permanently discontinued, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. If the dataset remains unavailable after 7 days and there is no consensus of credible reporting, this market resolves to "No".
No subsequent revision to a season's value will be considered or will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published. The +2.40°C threshold is fixed for the purposes of this market; any later revision to a historical season's RONI value will not change it.
The resolution source for this market is the official NOAA CPC RONI updates, available here: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/
The peak RONI is the single highest RONI value reported by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) across the overlapping three-month seasons ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, and DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates. The record to beat is +2.40°C, set in DJF 1982-83, the highest RONI value for any three-month season in CPC's record. A peak RONI of exactly 2.40°C ties the record and resolves this market to "No".
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs this market's resolution. This market may resolve immediately upon NOAA's first publication of a RONI value of above 2.40°C for any listed season.
If CPC's RONI dataset becomes temporarily unavailable, this market may be extended for up to 7 days. If CPC's RONI dataset is permanently discontinued, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. If the dataset remains unavailable after 7 days and there is no consensus of credible reporting, this market resolves to "No".
No subsequent revision to a season's value will be considered or will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published. The +2.40°C threshold is fixed for the purposes of this market; any later revision to a historical season's RONI value will not change it.
The resolution source for this market is the official NOAA CPC RONI updates, available here: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/
Mercado Aberto: Sep 14, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Volume
$221Data de Término
1 abr 2027Mercado Aberto
Sep 14, 2026, 11:23 AM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/Resolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño is above 2.40°C, the highest Regional Ocean Niño Index (RONI) value on record. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The peak RONI is the single highest RONI value reported by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) across the overlapping three-month seasons ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, and DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates. The record to beat is +2.40°C, set in DJF 1982-83, the highest RONI value for any three-month season in CPC's record. A peak RONI of exactly 2.40°C ties the record and resolves this market to "No".
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs this market's resolution. This market may resolve immediately upon NOAA's first publication of a RONI value of above 2.40°C for any listed season.
If CPC's RONI dataset becomes temporarily unavailable, this market may be extended for up to 7 days. If CPC's RONI dataset is permanently discontinued, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. If the dataset remains unavailable after 7 days and there is no consensus of credible reporting, this market resolves to "No".
No subsequent revision to a season's value will be considered or will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published. The +2.40°C threshold is fixed for the purposes of this market; any later revision to a historical season's RONI value will not change it.
The resolution source for this market is the official NOAA CPC RONI updates, available here: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/NOAA’s September 10 outlook assigns a 75% chance that the October–December 2026 three-month Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI) will reach or exceed +2.5 °C, the threshold defining a historic event stronger than any since 1950. Current conditions support this view: weekly Niño-3.4 anomalies have climbed to +2.9 °C, with eastern Pacific values surpassing +3 °C, while subsurface heat content remains exceptionally elevated. Multiple ensemble systems, including GFDL SPEAR and the North American Multi-Model Ensemble, place the peak near or above prior records on both conventional and relative indices. Traders therefore assign the “Yes” side a 73.5% implied probability, reflecting the narrow but real window for forecast revision as the event approaches its likely November–December maximum.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño is above 2.40°C, the highest Regional Ocean Niño Index (RONI) value on record. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The peak RONI is the single highest RONI value reported by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) across the overlapping three-month seasons ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, and DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates. The record to beat is +2.40°C, set in DJF 1982-83, the highest RONI value for any three-month season in CPC's record. A peak RONI of exactly 2.40°C ties the record and resolves this market to "No".
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs this market's resolution. This market may resolve immediately upon NOAA's first publication of a RONI value of above 2.40°C for any listed season.
If CPC's RONI dataset becomes temporarily unavailable, this market may be extended for up to 7 days. If CPC's RONI dataset is permanently discontinued, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. If the dataset remains unavailable after 7 days and there is no consensus of credible reporting, this market resolves to "No".
No subsequent revision to a season's value will be considered or will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published. The +2.40°C threshold is fixed for the purposes of this market; any later revision to a historical season's RONI value will not change it.
The resolution source for this market is the official NOAA CPC RONI updates, available here: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/
The peak RONI is the single highest RONI value reported by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) across the overlapping three-month seasons ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, and DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates. The record to beat is +2.40°C, set in DJF 1982-83, the highest RONI value for any three-month season in CPC's record. A peak RONI of exactly 2.40°C ties the record and resolves this market to "No".
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs this market's resolution. This market may resolve immediately upon NOAA's first publication of a RONI value of above 2.40°C for any listed season.
If CPC's RONI dataset becomes temporarily unavailable, this market may be extended for up to 7 days. If CPC's RONI dataset is permanently discontinued, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. If the dataset remains unavailable after 7 days and there is no consensus of credible reporting, this market resolves to "No".
No subsequent revision to a season's value will be considered or will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published. The +2.40°C threshold is fixed for the purposes of this market; any later revision to a historical season's RONI value will not change it.
The resolution source for this market is the official NOAA CPC RONI updates, available here: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/
Volume
$221Data de Término
1 abr 2027Mercado Aberto
Sep 14, 2026, 11:23 AM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/Resolver
0x65070BE91...NOAA’s September 10 outlook assigns a 75% chance that the October–December 2026 three-month Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI) will reach or exceed +2.5 °C, the threshold defining a historic event stronger than any since 1950. Current conditions support this view: weekly Niño-3.4 anomalies have climbed to +2.9 °C, with eastern Pacific values surpassing +3 °C, while subsurface heat content remains exceptionally elevated. Multiple ensemble systems, including GFDL SPEAR and the North American Multi-Model Ensemble, place the peak near or above prior records on both conventional and relative indices. Traders therefore assign the “Yes” side a 73.5% implied probability, reflecting the narrow but real window for forecast revision as the event approaches its likely November–December maximum.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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