Trader consensus places nearly equal implied probability on 32°C or 33°C as Manila’s maximum temperature for September 16, reflecting tight model spread in official PAGASA and global guidance during the southwest monsoon. Key differentiators include afternoon convection timing, cloud cover fraction, and localized urban heat effects, which can shift peak readings by 1–2°C depending on whether scattered thunderstorms develop before or after the daily high. Recent sea-surface temperature anomalies in the western Pacific and neutral ENSO conditions support typical late-summer instability, while wind patterns from the South China Sea influence moisture transport and cooling. Updated model runs and PAGASA’s next morning briefing are the next likely catalysts for any odds shift before resolution.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoTemperatura mais alta em Manila no dia 16 de setembro?
Temperatura mais alta em Manila no dia 16 de setembro?
32°C 48%
33°C 24%
31°C 17%
34°C 7%
NOVO
$13,706 Vol.
NOVO
$13,706 Vol.
16 set 2026
26°C ou menos
<1%
27°C
1%
28°C
2%
29°C
2%
30°C
6%
31°C
17%
32°C
48%
33°C
24%
34°C
7%
35°C
<1%
36°C ou mais
<1%
32°C 48%
33°C 24%
31°C 17%
34°C 7%
NOVO
$13,706 Vol.
NOVO
$13,706 Vol.
16 set 2026
26°C ou menos
$377 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$295 Vol.
1%
28°C
$179 Vol.
2%
29°C
$191 Vol.
2%
30°C
$1,556 Vol.
6%
31°C
$2,714 Vol.
17%
32°C
$3,911 Vol.
48%
33°C
$3,848 Vol.
24%
34°C
$370 Vol.
7%
35°C
$33 Vol.
<1%
36°C ou mais
$231 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader consensus places nearly equal implied probability on 32°C or 33°C as Manila’s maximum temperature for September 16, reflecting tight model spread in official PAGASA and global guidance during the southwest monsoon. Key differentiators include afternoon convection timing, cloud cover fraction, and localized urban heat effects, which can shift peak readings by 1–2°C depending on whether scattered thunderstorms develop before or after the daily high. Recent sea-surface temperature anomalies in the western Pacific and neutral ENSO conditions support typical late-summer instability, while wind patterns from the South China Sea influence moisture transport and cooling. Updated model runs and PAGASA’s next morning briefing are the next likely catalysts for any odds shift before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercado Aberto: Sep 14, 2026, 12:58 AM ET
Volume
$13,706Data de Término
16 set 2026Mercado Aberto
Sep 14, 2026, 12:58 AM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpllResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader consensus places nearly equal implied probability on 32°C or 33°C as Manila’s maximum temperature for September 16, reflecting tight model spread in official PAGASA and global guidance during the southwest monsoon. Key differentiators include afternoon convection timing, cloud cover fraction, and localized urban heat effects, which can shift peak readings by 1–2°C depending on whether scattered thunderstorms develop before or after the daily high. Recent sea-surface temperature anomalies in the western Pacific and neutral ENSO conditions support typical late-summer instability, while wind patterns from the South China Sea influence moisture transport and cooling. Updated model runs and PAGASA’s next morning briefing are the next likely catalysts for any odds shift before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$13,706Data de Término
16 set 2026Mercado Aberto
Sep 14, 2026, 12:58 AM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpllResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus places nearly equal implied probability on 32°C or 33°C as Manila’s maximum temperature for September 16, reflecting tight model spread in official PAGASA and global guidance during the southwest monsoon. Key differentiators include afternoon convection timing, cloud cover fraction, and localized urban heat effects, which can shift peak readings by 1–2°C depending on whether scattered thunderstorms develop before or after the daily high. Recent sea-surface temperature anomalies in the western Pacific and neutral ENSO conditions support typical late-summer instability, while wind patterns from the South China Sea influence moisture transport and cooling. Updated model runs and PAGASA’s next morning briefing are the next likely catalysts for any odds shift before resolution.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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