Persistent rain and extensive cloud cover from a northeasterly flow are the main drivers keeping Tokyo’s September 16 high temperatures clustered around 23–24°C in market pricing. Official forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and multiple models project a daytime maximum near 23°C under overcast skies with widespread precipitation, well below the late-September climatological normal of about 27°C. This setup favors the leading market outcomes of 24°C (37.5% implied probability) and 23°C (19.5%), while limiting upside to 25–26°C. Traders are weighting the consistent cool-air advection and suppressed insolation more heavily than any potential afternoon clearing that could briefly lift readings. Updated model runs and JMA briefings remain the key near-term catalysts.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoTemperatura mais alta em Tóquio no dia 16 de setembro?
Temperatura mais alta em Tóquio no dia 16 de setembro?
24°C 38%
25°C 26%
23°C 20%
26°C 6%
NOVO
$17,604 Vol.
NOVO
$17,604 Vol.
16 set 2026
19°C ou menos
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
2%
22°C
5%
23°C
20%
24°C
38%
25°C
26%
26°C
6%
27°C
2%
28°C
1%
29°C ou mais
1%
24°C 38%
25°C 26%
23°C 20%
26°C 6%
NOVO
$17,604 Vol.
NOVO
$17,604 Vol.
16 set 2026
19°C ou menos
$212 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$485 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$487 Vol.
2%
22°C
$740 Vol.
5%
23°C
$2,308 Vol.
20%
24°C
$3,012 Vol.
38%
25°C
$4,580 Vol.
26%
26°C
$2,659 Vol.
6%
27°C
$659 Vol.
2%
28°C
$967 Vol.
1%
29°C ou mais
$1,493 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent rain and extensive cloud cover from a northeasterly flow are the main drivers keeping Tokyo’s September 16 high temperatures clustered around 23–24°C in market pricing. Official forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and multiple models project a daytime maximum near 23°C under overcast skies with widespread precipitation, well below the late-September climatological normal of about 27°C. This setup favors the leading market outcomes of 24°C (37.5% implied probability) and 23°C (19.5%), while limiting upside to 25–26°C. Traders are weighting the consistent cool-air advection and suppressed insolation more heavily than any potential afternoon clearing that could briefly lift readings. Updated model runs and JMA briefings remain the key near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercado Aberto: Sep 14, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$17,604Data de Término
16 set 2026Mercado Aberto
Sep 14, 2026, 12:56 AM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent rain and extensive cloud cover from a northeasterly flow are the main drivers keeping Tokyo’s September 16 high temperatures clustered around 23–24°C in market pricing. Official forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and multiple models project a daytime maximum near 23°C under overcast skies with widespread precipitation, well below the late-September climatological normal of about 27°C. This setup favors the leading market outcomes of 24°C (37.5% implied probability) and 23°C (19.5%), while limiting upside to 25–26°C. Traders are weighting the consistent cool-air advection and suppressed insolation more heavily than any potential afternoon clearing that could briefly lift readings. Updated model runs and JMA briefings remain the key near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$17,604Data de Término
16 set 2026Mercado Aberto
Sep 14, 2026, 12:56 AM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...Persistent rain and extensive cloud cover from a northeasterly flow are the main drivers keeping Tokyo’s September 16 high temperatures clustered around 23–24°C in market pricing. Official forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and multiple models project a daytime maximum near 23°C under overcast skies with widespread precipitation, well below the late-September climatological normal of about 27°C. This setup favors the leading market outcomes of 24°C (37.5% implied probability) and 23°C (19.5%), while limiting upside to 25–26°C. Traders are weighting the consistent cool-air advection and suppressed insolation more heavily than any potential afternoon clearing that could briefly lift readings. Updated model runs and JMA briefings remain the key near-term catalysts.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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