The September 16 FOMC decision to raise the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to the 3.75–4.00% range, combined with updated Summary of Economic Projections showing 16 of 18 officials expecting at least one additional hike by year-end, anchors the 83.5% market-implied probability for another rate increase in 2026. Persistent inflation, with August core PCE readings remaining elevated near 3.4% and resilient domestic spending supporting solid growth, prompted the hawkish shift from the prior June outlook. Traders are now pricing roughly an 80–90% chance of a December move, with Goldman Sachs and others forecasting potential action as soon as October. Key near-term catalysts include the next FOMC meeting and incoming CPI and employment data that could reinforce or ease pressure on the policy path.