Apple’s near-term market cap trajectory hinges on execution of the newly launched iPhone 18 series and foldable Duo hardware under CEO John Ternus, whose September 2026 transition coincides with strong fiscal Q3 results showing double-digit revenue growth and elevated iPhone demand. Traders weigh Apple’s capital-light Apple Intelligence strategy—emphasizing on-device processing and privacy features—against rivals’ heavier large language model investments, while monitoring services expansion, upgrade cycle momentum, and potential margin pressure from rising memory costs. With the company hovering near $4.9 trillion, the tight clustering of implied probabilities around $4.5–5.5 trillion reflects uncertainty over whether premium device pricing and AI monetization can sustain gains through year-end amid competitive and macroeconomic variables.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено$5,00–$5,50 трлн 28%
$4,50–$5,00 трлн 26%
4,00–4,50 трлн $ 18%
$5,50–$6,00 трлн 15%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
31 дек. 2026 г.
< $3,50 трлн
6%
$3,50–$4,00 трлн
7%
4,00–4,50 трлн $
18%
$4,50–$5,00 трлн
26%
$5,00–$5,50 трлн
28%
$5,50–$6,00 трлн
15%
$6,00 трлн+
8%
$5,00–$5,50 трлн 28%
$4,50–$5,00 трлн 26%
4,00–4,50 трлн $ 18%
$5,50–$6,00 трлн 15%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
31 дек. 2026 г.
< $3,50 трлн
$522 Объем
6%
$3,50–$4,00 трлн
$228 Объем
7%
4,00–4,50 трлн $
$644 Объем
18%
$4,50–$5,00 трлн
$497 Объем
26%
$5,00–$5,50 трлн
$618 Объем
28%
$5,50–$6,00 трлн
$192 Объем
15%
$6,00 трлн+
$109 Объем
8%
This market will resolve according to Apple's public market capitalization at the close of regular trading on the final trading day of 2026.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of 2026, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, the public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.Apple’s near-term market cap trajectory hinges on execution of the newly launched iPhone 18 series and foldable Duo hardware under CEO John Ternus, whose September 2026 transition coincides with strong fiscal Q3 results showing double-digit revenue growth and elevated iPhone demand. Traders weigh Apple’s capital-light Apple Intelligence strategy—emphasizing on-device processing and privacy features—against rivals’ heavier large language model investments, while monitoring services expansion, upgrade cycle momentum, and potential margin pressure from rising memory costs. With the company hovering near $4.9 trillion, the tight clustering of implied probabilities around $4.5–5.5 trillion reflects uncertainty over whether premium device pricing and AI monetization can sustain gains through year-end amid competitive and macroeconomic variables.
This market will resolve according to Apple's public market capitalization at the close of regular trading on the final trading day of 2026.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of 2026, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, the public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of 2026, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, the public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.
Открытие рынка: Aug 5, 2026, 8:01 AM ET
Объем
$2,809Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 5, 2026, 8:01 AM ETКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to Apple's public market capitalization at the close of regular trading on the final trading day of 2026.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of 2026, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, the public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.Apple’s near-term market cap trajectory hinges on execution of the newly launched iPhone 18 series and foldable Duo hardware under CEO John Ternus, whose September 2026 transition coincides with strong fiscal Q3 results showing double-digit revenue growth and elevated iPhone demand. Traders weigh Apple’s capital-light Apple Intelligence strategy—emphasizing on-device processing and privacy features—against rivals’ heavier large language model investments, while monitoring services expansion, upgrade cycle momentum, and potential margin pressure from rising memory costs. With the company hovering near $4.9 trillion, the tight clustering of implied probabilities around $4.5–5.5 trillion reflects uncertainty over whether premium device pricing and AI monetization can sustain gains through year-end amid competitive and macroeconomic variables.
This market will resolve according to Apple's public market capitalization at the close of regular trading on the final trading day of 2026.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of 2026, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, the public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of 2026, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, the public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.
Объем
$2,809Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 5, 2026, 8:01 AM ETКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...Apple’s near-term market cap trajectory hinges on execution of the newly launched iPhone 18 series and foldable Duo hardware under CEO John Ternus, whose September 2026 transition coincides with strong fiscal Q3 results showing double-digit revenue growth and elevated iPhone demand. Traders weigh Apple’s capital-light Apple Intelligence strategy—emphasizing on-device processing and privacy features—against rivals’ heavier large language model investments, while monitoring services expansion, upgrade cycle momentum, and potential margin pressure from rising memory costs. With the company hovering near $4.9 trillion, the tight clustering of implied probabilities around $4.5–5.5 trillion reflects uncertainty over whether premium device pricing and AI monetization can sustain gains through year-end amid competitive and macroeconomic variables.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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