Houthi forces gained control of Yemen’s Red Sea coast, Mokha port, and Perim Island in September 2026, strengthening their ability to monitor and selectively target traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait without a formal closure. This has sustained elevated war-risk premiums and rerouting for many vessels, particularly tankers, keeping overall tonnage roughly 46% below pre-crisis levels as of October 2026. Containership transits have rebounded to 59-68% of 2023 benchmarks, with weekly averages near 190-209 vessels and daily figures around 24-28, well above the IMF PortWatch threshold of a 7-day moving average at or below 10 arrivals that would trigger market resolution. Renewed Houthi-Saudi missile exchanges in November have heightened tensions but produced no confirmed commercial attacks since August. Shipping lines continue cautious Suez restorations while monitoring for escalation, supporting trader consensus that effective closure by year-end carries low implied probability.