Rising energy prices from the Middle East conflict have elevated inflation risks, driving the 81.5% market-implied probability of a 25 basis point Bank Rate hike at the November 5 meeting. The Bank of England held rates at 3.75% in September with a 6-3 vote but adopted a more hawkish tone, forecasting CPI near 3.75% in Q4 2026 and above 4% in early 2027 after August's 3.1% print. Multiple MPC members have signaled openness to tightening, aligning with revised analyst forecasts for hikes in November and February. Traders view this as an insurance move against second-round effects on wages and prices, though softer data or de-escalation could still alter the path ahead of the decision.