The Bank of Japan’s September 18 decision to raise the policy rate 25 basis points to 1.25%—its highest level in 31 years—has anchored trader expectations for a hold at the late-October meeting. Governor Kazuo Ueda’s post-meeting remarks emphasized a new, preemptive phase focused on stabilizing underlying inflation near the 2% target amid broadening price pressures from yen weakness, energy costs, and AI-driven demand, yet he avoided signaling near-term follow-through. Market-implied odds of 83.5% for no change reflect the central bank’s data-dependent stance, historical six-month pacing between adjustments, and political caution from Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi. With the next Outlook Report due in October and incoming CPI and wage data to be assessed, the slim 15.5% probability of a further 25 bp hike hinges on stronger-than-expected inflation momentum before year-end.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоNo change 84%
25 bps increase 16%
50+ bps increase <1%
50+ bps decrease <1%
$129,510 Объем
$129,510 Объем
29 окт. 2026 г.
50+ bps decrease
<1%
25 bps decrease
<1%
No change
84%
25 bps increase
16%
50+ bps increase
1%
No change 84%
25 bps increase 16%
50+ bps increase <1%
50+ bps decrease <1%
$129,510 Объем
$129,510 Объем
29 окт. 2026 г.
50+ bps decrease
$7,041 Объем
<1%
25 bps decrease
$12,159 Объем
<1%
No change
$43,952 Объем
84%
25 bps increase
$45,851 Объем
16%
50+ bps increase
$20,508 Объем
1%
The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for October is scheduled to be released on October 30, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's October 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.The Bank of Japan’s September 18 decision to raise the policy rate 25 basis points to 1.25%—its highest level in 31 years—has anchored trader expectations for a hold at the late-October meeting. Governor Kazuo Ueda’s post-meeting remarks emphasized a new, preemptive phase focused on stabilizing underlying inflation near the 2% target amid broadening price pressures from yen weakness, energy costs, and AI-driven demand, yet he avoided signaling near-term follow-through. Market-implied odds of 83.5% for no change reflect the central bank’s data-dependent stance, historical six-month pacing between adjustments, and political caution from Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi. With the next Outlook Report due in October and incoming CPI and wage data to be assessed, the slim 15.5% probability of a further 25 bp hike hinges on stronger-than-expected inflation momentum before year-end.
The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for October is scheduled to be released on October 30, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's October 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's October 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Открытие рынка: Jul 31, 2026, 7:29 PM ET
Объем
$129,510Дата окончания
30 окт. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jul 31, 2026, 7:29 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for October is scheduled to be released on October 30, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's October 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.The Bank of Japan’s September 18 decision to raise the policy rate 25 basis points to 1.25%—its highest level in 31 years—has anchored trader expectations for a hold at the late-October meeting. Governor Kazuo Ueda’s post-meeting remarks emphasized a new, preemptive phase focused on stabilizing underlying inflation near the 2% target amid broadening price pressures from yen weakness, energy costs, and AI-driven demand, yet he avoided signaling near-term follow-through. Market-implied odds of 83.5% for no change reflect the central bank’s data-dependent stance, historical six-month pacing between adjustments, and political caution from Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi. With the next Outlook Report due in October and incoming CPI and wage data to be assessed, the slim 15.5% probability of a further 25 bp hike hinges on stronger-than-expected inflation momentum before year-end.
The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for October is scheduled to be released on October 30, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's October 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's October 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Объем
$129,510Дата окончания
30 окт. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jul 31, 2026, 7:29 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...The Bank of Japan’s September 18 decision to raise the policy rate 25 basis points to 1.25%—its highest level in 31 years—has anchored trader expectations for a hold at the late-October meeting. Governor Kazuo Ueda’s post-meeting remarks emphasized a new, preemptive phase focused on stabilizing underlying inflation near the 2% target amid broadening price pressures from yen weakness, energy costs, and AI-driven demand, yet he avoided signaling near-term follow-through. Market-implied odds of 83.5% for no change reflect the central bank’s data-dependent stance, historical six-month pacing between adjustments, and political caution from Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi. With the next Outlook Report due in October and incoming CPI and wage data to be assessed, the slim 15.5% probability of a further 25 bp hike hinges on stronger-than-expected inflation momentum before year-end.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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