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Экономика·Fed

Решение ФРС в октябре?

icon for Решение ФРС в октябре?
Экономика·Fed

Решение ФРС в октябре?

окт. 28

дек. 9

янв. 27, 2027

окт. 28

дек. 9

янв. 27, 2027

Повышение на 25 б.п. 53%

Без изменений 47%

Повышение на 50+ б.п. <1%

Снижение на 25 б.п. <1%

Polymarket

$9,132,971 Объем

Повышение на 25 б.п. 53%

Без изменений 47%

Повышение на 50+ б.п. <1%

Снижение на 25 б.п. <1%

Polymarket

$9,132,971 Объем

Снижение на 50+ б.п.

$1,347,561 Объем

<1%

Снижение на 25 б.п.

$1,799,930 Объем

1%

Без изменений

$2,389,280 Объем

47%

Повышение на 25 б.п.

$2,268,667 Объем

53%

Повышение на 50+ б.п.

$1,327,532 Объем

1%

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.The September 16 FOMC decision to raise the federal funds target range 25 basis points to 3.75-4.00 percent, paired with updated projections showing a median year-end rate near 4.1 percent and 16 of 18 participants favoring at least one additional hike, has produced closely matched implied probabilities for another 25 bp increase versus no change at the October 27-28 meeting. Elevated inflation readings, with August CPI at 3.4 percent year-over-year and core PCE near 3.4 percent, alongside a resilient labor market featuring 4.1 percent unemployment and steady payroll gains, underpin the hawkish tilt. Key swing factors include the September employment report due October 2 and CPI release on October 14, which will shape whether incoming data sustain or moderate the case for further tightening before the next policy statement.

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.

This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.

If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)

The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.

The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.

This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Объем
$9,132,971
Дата окончания
28 окт. 2026 г.
Открытие рынка
Jun 17, 2026, 7:21 PM ET

Кто определяет исход

0x69c47De9D...
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.The September 16 FOMC decision to raise the federal funds target range 25 basis points to 3.75-4.00 percent, paired with updated projections showing a median year-end rate near 4.1 percent and 16 of 18 participants favoring at least one additional hike, has produced closely matched implied probabilities for another 25 bp increase versus no change at the October 27-28 meeting. Elevated inflation readings, with August CPI at 3.4 percent year-over-year and core PCE near 3.4 percent, alongside a resilient labor market featuring 4.1 percent unemployment and steady payroll gains, underpin the hawkish tilt. Key swing factors include the September employment report due October 2 and CPI release on October 14, which will shape whether incoming data sustain or moderate the case for further tightening before the next policy statement.

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.

This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.

If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)

The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.

The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.

This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Объем
$9,132,971
Дата окончания
28 окт. 2026 г.
Открытие рынка
Jun 17, 2026, 7:21 PM ET

Кто определяет исход

0x69c47De9D...

Связанные

icon for Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?

68%
icon for Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the January 2027 meeting?

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the January 2027 meeting?

56%
icon for Будет ли верхняя граница целевой ставки по федеральным фондам составлять 4,25% на конец 2026 года?

Будет ли верхняя граница целевой ставки по федеральным фондам составлять 4,25% на конец 2026 года?

53%
Да

Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.

Часто задаваемые вопросы

«Решение ФРС в октябре?» — это рынок прогнозов на Polymarket с 5 возможными исходами, где трейдеры покупают и продают акции на основе своих прогнозов. Текущий лидирующий исход — «Повышение на 25 б.п.» с 53%, за ним следует «Без изменений» с 47%. Цены отражают вероятности сообщества в реальном времени. Например, акция по цене 53¢ означает, что рынок коллективно оценивает вероятность этого исхода в 53%. Эти коэффициенты постоянно меняются. Акции правильного исхода можно обменять на $1 каждую при разрешении рынка.

На сегодняшний день «Решение ФРС в октябре?» сгенерировал общий объём торгов $9.1 million с момента запуска рынка Jun 17, 2026. Такой уровень активности отражает высокую вовлечённость сообщества Polymarket и гарантирует, что текущие коэффициенты формируются широким кругом участников рынка. Ты можешь отслеживать движение цен в реальном времени и торговать любым исходом прямо на этой странице.

Чтобы торговать на «Решение ФРС в октябре?», просмотри 5 доступных исходов на этой странице. Каждый исход показывает текущую цену, представляющую подразумеваемую вероятность рынка. Чтобы занять позицию, выбери исход, который считаешь наиболее вероятным, выбери «Да» для торговли в его пользу или «Нет» для торговли против, введи сумму и нажми «Торговать». Если твой выбранный исход окажется верным, твои акции «Да» принесут $1 каждая. Если нет — $0. Ты также можешь продать акции до разрешения.

Текущий фаворит для «Решение ФРС в октябре?» — «Повышение на 25 б.п.» с 53%, что означает, что рынок оценивает вероятность этого исхода в 53%. Следующий ближайший исход — «Без изменений» с 47%. Эти коэффициенты обновляются в реальном времени по мере покупки и продажи акций. Заходи чаще или добавь страницу в закладки.

Правила разрешения «Решение ФРС в октябре?» точно определяют, что должно произойти, чтобы каждый исход был объявлен победителем, включая официальные источники данных, используемые для определения результата. Ты можешь просмотреть полные критерии разрешения в разделе «Правила» на этой странице над комментариями. Мы рекомендуем внимательно прочитать правила перед торговлей, так как они определяют точные условия, особые случаи и источники.