Recent August CPI data showing 3.4% year-over-year inflation and a 0.4% monthly rise, alongside a resilient labor market with 162,000 August jobs added and 4.1% unemployment, have reinforced trader expectations for tighter policy. Hawkish signals from Chair Kevin Warsh, including at Jackson Hole, and the current 3.50%-3.75% fed funds target have positioned a 25 basis point hike as the leading December outcome at 55.5% implied probability. Stronger-than-expected growth and energy price pressures have shifted consensus away from cuts or holds, though September data releases and the mid-September FOMC meeting remain key swing factors ahead of the December decision.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено25 bps increase 56%
Без изменений 40%
50+ bps increase 4.2%
25 bps decrease 3.5%
$687,490 Объем
$687,490 Объем
9 дек. 2026 г.
50+ bps decrease
1%
25 bps decrease
4%
Без изменений
40%
25 bps increase
56%
50+ bps increase
4%
25 bps increase 56%
Без изменений 40%
50+ bps increase 4.2%
25 bps decrease 3.5%
$687,490 Объем
$687,490 Объем
9 дек. 2026 г.
50+ bps decrease
$102,808 Объем
1%
25 bps decrease
$155,970 Объем
4%
Без изменений
$136,748 Объем
40%
25 bps increase
$187,162 Объем
56%
50+ bps increase
$104,802 Объем
4%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent August CPI data showing 3.4% year-over-year inflation and a 0.4% monthly rise, alongside a resilient labor market with 162,000 August jobs added and 4.1% unemployment, have reinforced trader expectations for tighter policy. Hawkish signals from Chair Kevin Warsh, including at Jackson Hole, and the current 3.50%-3.75% fed funds target have positioned a 25 basis point hike as the leading December outcome at 55.5% implied probability. Stronger-than-expected growth and energy price pressures have shifted consensus away from cuts or holds, though September data releases and the mid-September FOMC meeting remain key swing factors ahead of the December decision.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Открытие рынка: Jul 29, 2026, 8:38 PM ET
Объем
$687,490Дата окончания
9 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jul 29, 2026, 8:38 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent August CPI data showing 3.4% year-over-year inflation and a 0.4% monthly rise, alongside a resilient labor market with 162,000 August jobs added and 4.1% unemployment, have reinforced trader expectations for tighter policy. Hawkish signals from Chair Kevin Warsh, including at Jackson Hole, and the current 3.50%-3.75% fed funds target have positioned a 25 basis point hike as the leading December outcome at 55.5% implied probability. Stronger-than-expected growth and energy price pressures have shifted consensus away from cuts or holds, though September data releases and the mid-September FOMC meeting remain key swing factors ahead of the December decision.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Объем
$687,490Дата окончания
9 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jul 29, 2026, 8:38 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...Recent August CPI data showing 3.4% year-over-year inflation and a 0.4% monthly rise, alongside a resilient labor market with 162,000 August jobs added and 4.1% unemployment, have reinforced trader expectations for tighter policy. Hawkish signals from Chair Kevin Warsh, including at Jackson Hole, and the current 3.50%-3.75% fed funds target have positioned a 25 basis point hike as the leading December outcome at 55.5% implied probability. Stronger-than-expected growth and energy price pressures have shifted consensus away from cuts or holds, though September data releases and the mid-September FOMC meeting remain key swing factors ahead of the December decision.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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