**Persistent inflation and a resilient economy are anchoring trader expectations for the Federal Reserve’s January 2027 policy decision.** August 2026 CPI data showed headline inflation at 3.4% year-over-year and core at 2.4%, with energy prices contributing to recent upside surprises amid ongoing geopolitical pressures. This backdrop, combined with solid labor-market readings and limited evidence of cooling price pressures, has led markets to price a 57% chance of no change at the January meeting alongside a 23% probability of a 25-basis-point hike. Analyst forecasts from firms including Goldman Sachs and Citi have shifted first-cut expectations into mid-2027, reflecting the Fed’s data-dependent stance and higher-for-longer path. Upcoming September CPI and the September 16-17 FOMC meeting, which includes updated projections, will provide fresh inputs likely to influence near-term implied odds.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоNo change 57%
Повышение на 25 базисных пунктов 23%
25 bps decrease 14%
50+ bps decrease 4.5%
$71,044 Объем
$71,044 Объем
27 янв. 2027 г.
50+ bps decrease
5%
25 bps decrease
14%
No change
57%
Повышение на 25 базисных пунктов
23%
Повышение на 50+ б.п.
2%
No change 57%
Повышение на 25 базисных пунктов 23%
25 bps decrease 14%
50+ bps decrease 4.5%
$71,044 Объем
$71,044 Объем
27 янв. 2027 г.
50+ bps decrease
$13,983 Объем
5%
25 bps decrease
$14,873 Объем
14%
No change
$21,182 Объем
57%
Повышение на 25 базисных пунктов
$17,021 Объем
23%
Повышение на 50+ б.п.
$3,985 Объем
2%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.**Persistent inflation and a resilient economy are anchoring trader expectations for the Federal Reserve’s January 2027 policy decision.** August 2026 CPI data showed headline inflation at 3.4% year-over-year and core at 2.4%, with energy prices contributing to recent upside surprises amid ongoing geopolitical pressures. This backdrop, combined with solid labor-market readings and limited evidence of cooling price pressures, has led markets to price a 57% chance of no change at the January meeting alongside a 23% probability of a 25-basis-point hike. Analyst forecasts from firms including Goldman Sachs and Citi have shifted first-cut expectations into mid-2027, reflecting the Fed’s data-dependent stance and higher-for-longer path. Upcoming September CPI and the September 16-17 FOMC meeting, which includes updated projections, will provide fresh inputs likely to influence near-term implied odds.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Открытие рынка: Jul 29, 2026, 8:39 PM ET
Объем
$71,044Дата окончания
27 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Jul 29, 2026, 8:39 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.**Persistent inflation and a resilient economy are anchoring trader expectations for the Federal Reserve’s January 2027 policy decision.** August 2026 CPI data showed headline inflation at 3.4% year-over-year and core at 2.4%, with energy prices contributing to recent upside surprises amid ongoing geopolitical pressures. This backdrop, combined with solid labor-market readings and limited evidence of cooling price pressures, has led markets to price a 57% chance of no change at the January meeting alongside a 23% probability of a 25-basis-point hike. Analyst forecasts from firms including Goldman Sachs and Citi have shifted first-cut expectations into mid-2027, reflecting the Fed’s data-dependent stance and higher-for-longer path. Upcoming September CPI and the September 16-17 FOMC meeting, which includes updated projections, will provide fresh inputs likely to influence near-term implied odds.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Объем
$71,044Дата окончания
27 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Jul 29, 2026, 8:39 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...**Persistent inflation and a resilient economy are anchoring trader expectations for the Federal Reserve’s January 2027 policy decision.** August 2026 CPI data showed headline inflation at 3.4% year-over-year and core at 2.4%, with energy prices contributing to recent upside surprises amid ongoing geopolitical pressures. This backdrop, combined with solid labor-market readings and limited evidence of cooling price pressures, has led markets to price a 57% chance of no change at the January meeting alongside a 23% probability of a 25-basis-point hike. Analyst forecasts from firms including Goldman Sachs and Citi have shifted first-cut expectations into mid-2027, reflecting the Fed’s data-dependent stance and higher-for-longer path. Upcoming September CPI and the September 16-17 FOMC meeting, which includes updated projections, will provide fresh inputs likely to influence near-term implied odds.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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