Trump’s appointment of Kevin Warsh as Federal Reserve Chair in May 2026 anchors the 98.8% market-implied probability against any attempt to remove him this year. As the president’s handpicked successor to Jerome Powell, Warsh enjoys a personal relationship and explicit public backing even after the FOMC’s unanimous September 25-basis-point rate hike to the 3.75–4.00% target range, which defied White House calls for lower rates. Trump attributed the decision to a “hostile” board rather than criticizing Warsh directly and reaffirmed confidence in his independence. Legal protections further reinforce this consensus: Fed governors may be removed only “for cause,” a standard upheld by lower courts and signaled by the Supreme Court in related cases. Tail risks remain limited to extreme, repeated policy clashes or unforeseen legal shifts that could test removal precedents.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено1% вероятность
$30,017 Объем
$30,017 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
1% вероятность
$30,017 Объем
$30,017 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly and unequivocally announces that he is removing Kevin Warsh as Chair of the Federal Reserve, or takes formal action toward doing so, such as issuing a directive or formal request, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements which are contingent (e.g. “Warsh must step down or lower rates”), statements of intent (e.g. “I am planning to fire Warsh”) or other informal statements which are not unequivocal will not qualify.
If Kevin Warsh resigns or otherwise formally departs his role as Chair of the Federal Reserve prior to a qualifying action, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
Attempts to remove Warsh from his role as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
The resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trump’s appointment of Kevin Warsh as Federal Reserve Chair in May 2026 anchors the 98.8% market-implied probability against any attempt to remove him this year. As the president’s handpicked successor to Jerome Powell, Warsh enjoys a personal relationship and explicit public backing even after the FOMC’s unanimous September 25-basis-point rate hike to the 3.75–4.00% target range, which defied White House calls for lower rates. Trump attributed the decision to a “hostile” board rather than criticizing Warsh directly and reaffirmed confidence in his independence. Legal protections further reinforce this consensus: Fed governors may be removed only “for cause,” a standard upheld by lower courts and signaled by the Supreme Court in related cases. Tail risks remain limited to extreme, repeated policy clashes or unforeseen legal shifts that could test removal precedents.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly and unequivocally announces that he is removing Kevin Warsh as Chair of the Federal Reserve, or takes formal action toward doing so, such as issuing a directive or formal request, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements which are contingent (e.g. “Warsh must step down or lower rates”), statements of intent (e.g. “I am planning to fire Warsh”) or other informal statements which are not unequivocal will not qualify.
If Kevin Warsh resigns or otherwise formally departs his role as Chair of the Federal Reserve prior to a qualifying action, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
Attempts to remove Warsh from his role as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
The resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Statements which are contingent (e.g. “Warsh must step down or lower rates”), statements of intent (e.g. “I am planning to fire Warsh”) or other informal statements which are not unequivocal will not qualify.
If Kevin Warsh resigns or otherwise formally departs his role as Chair of the Federal Reserve prior to a qualifying action, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
Attempts to remove Warsh from his role as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
The resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Открытие рынка: Jul 24, 2026, 11:56 AM ET
Объем
$30,017Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Jul 24, 2026, 11:56 AM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly and unequivocally announces that he is removing Kevin Warsh as Chair of the Federal Reserve, or takes formal action toward doing so, such as issuing a directive or formal request, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements which are contingent (e.g. “Warsh must step down or lower rates”), statements of intent (e.g. “I am planning to fire Warsh”) or other informal statements which are not unequivocal will not qualify.
If Kevin Warsh resigns or otherwise formally departs his role as Chair of the Federal Reserve prior to a qualifying action, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
Attempts to remove Warsh from his role as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
The resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trump’s appointment of Kevin Warsh as Federal Reserve Chair in May 2026 anchors the 98.8% market-implied probability against any attempt to remove him this year. As the president’s handpicked successor to Jerome Powell, Warsh enjoys a personal relationship and explicit public backing even after the FOMC’s unanimous September 25-basis-point rate hike to the 3.75–4.00% target range, which defied White House calls for lower rates. Trump attributed the decision to a “hostile” board rather than criticizing Warsh directly and reaffirmed confidence in his independence. Legal protections further reinforce this consensus: Fed governors may be removed only “for cause,” a standard upheld by lower courts and signaled by the Supreme Court in related cases. Tail risks remain limited to extreme, repeated policy clashes or unforeseen legal shifts that could test removal precedents.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly and unequivocally announces that he is removing Kevin Warsh as Chair of the Federal Reserve, or takes formal action toward doing so, such as issuing a directive or formal request, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements which are contingent (e.g. “Warsh must step down or lower rates”), statements of intent (e.g. “I am planning to fire Warsh”) or other informal statements which are not unequivocal will not qualify.
If Kevin Warsh resigns or otherwise formally departs his role as Chair of the Federal Reserve prior to a qualifying action, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
Attempts to remove Warsh from his role as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
The resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Statements which are contingent (e.g. “Warsh must step down or lower rates”), statements of intent (e.g. “I am planning to fire Warsh”) or other informal statements which are not unequivocal will not qualify.
If Kevin Warsh resigns or otherwise formally departs his role as Chair of the Federal Reserve prior to a qualifying action, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
Attempts to remove Warsh from his role as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
The resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Объем
$30,017Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Jul 24, 2026, 11:56 AM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...Trump’s appointment of Kevin Warsh as Federal Reserve Chair in May 2026 anchors the 98.8% market-implied probability against any attempt to remove him this year. As the president’s handpicked successor to Jerome Powell, Warsh enjoys a personal relationship and explicit public backing even after the FOMC’s unanimous September 25-basis-point rate hike to the 3.75–4.00% target range, which defied White House calls for lower rates. Trump attributed the decision to a “hostile” board rather than criticizing Warsh directly and reaffirmed confidence in his independence. Legal protections further reinforce this consensus: Fed governors may be removed only “for cause,” a standard upheld by lower courts and signaled by the Supreme Court in related cases. Tail risks remain limited to extreme, repeated policy clashes or unforeseen legal shifts that could test removal precedents.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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