Polymarket traders price a 72.5% implied probability for zero Fed rate cuts (0 basis points) in 2026, reflecting strong consensus driven by April 2026 CPI surging to 3.8% year-over-year—its highest since May 2023 and up from March's 3.3%—alongside core inflation at 2.8%, well above the Federal Reserve's 2% target. This hot data, released May 12, has solidified expectations of policy patience amid a resilient labor market and steady federal funds rate at 3.5%-3.75%, unchanged since the FOMC's April 29 hold with notable dissents. March projections eyed modest easing to a 3.4% midpoint by year-end, but persistent price pressures have shifted sentiment toward no action. Upcoming June FOMC and May CPI will be pivotal catalysts.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено0 (0 бпс) 72.4%
1 (25 базисных пунктов) 16%
2 (50 б.п.) 7%
3 (75 б.п.) 2.1%
$26,230,628 Объем
$26,230,628 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
0 (0 бпс)
72%
1 (25 базисных пунктов)
16%
2 (50 б.п.)
7%
3 (75 б.п.)
2%
4 (100 базисных пунктов)
1%
5 (125 б.п.)
1%
6 (150 б.п.)
1%
7 (175 б.п.)
<1%
8 (200 базисных пунктов)
<1%
9 (225 б.п.)
<1%
10 (250 базисных пунктов)
<1%
11 (275 б.п.)
<1%
12+ (300+ б.п.)
1%
0 (0 бпс) 72.4%
1 (25 базисных пунктов) 16%
2 (50 б.п.) 7%
3 (75 б.п.) 2.1%
$26,230,628 Объем
$26,230,628 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
0 (0 бпс)
$4,086,987 Объем
72%
1 (25 базисных пунктов)
$1,218,792 Объем
16%
2 (50 б.п.)
$1,170,611 Объем
7%
3 (75 б.п.)
$1,069,647 Объем
2%
4 (100 базисных пунктов)
$1,147,550 Объем
1%
5 (125 б.п.)
$1,381,006 Объем
1%
6 (150 б.п.)
$2,436,767 Объем
1%
7 (175 б.п.)
$1,291,334 Объем
<1%
8 (200 базисных пунктов)
$1,690,697 Объем
<1%
9 (225 б.п.)
$2,410,575 Объем
<1%
10 (250 базисных пунктов)
$3,020,117 Объем
<1%
11 (275 б.п.)
$3,197,625 Объем
<1%
12+ (300+ б.п.)
$2,109,347 Объем
1%
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Polymarket traders price a 72.5% implied probability for zero Fed rate cuts (0 basis points) in 2026, reflecting strong consensus driven by April 2026 CPI surging to 3.8% year-over-year—its highest since May 2023 and up from March's 3.3%—alongside core inflation at 2.8%, well above the Federal Reserve's 2% target. This hot data, released May 12, has solidified expectations of policy patience amid a resilient labor market and steady federal funds rate at 3.5%-3.75%, unchanged since the FOMC's April 29 hold with notable dissents. March projections eyed modest easing to a 3.4% midpoint by year-end, but persistent price pressures have shifted sentiment toward no action. Upcoming June FOMC and May CPI will be pivotal catalysts.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Открытие рынка: Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ET
Объем
$26,230,628Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Polymarket traders price a 72.5% implied probability for zero Fed rate cuts (0 basis points) in 2026, reflecting strong consensus driven by April 2026 CPI surging to 3.8% year-over-year—its highest since May 2023 and up from March's 3.3%—alongside core inflation at 2.8%, well above the Federal Reserve's 2% target. This hot data, released May 12, has solidified expectations of policy patience amid a resilient labor market and steady federal funds rate at 3.5%-3.75%, unchanged since the FOMC's April 29 hold with notable dissents. March projections eyed modest easing to a 3.4% midpoint by year-end, but persistent price pressures have shifted sentiment toward no action. Upcoming June FOMC and May CPI will be pivotal catalysts.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Объем
$26,230,628Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders price a 72.5% implied probability for zero Fed rate cuts (0 basis points) in 2026, reflecting strong consensus driven by April 2026 CPI surging to 3.8% year-over-year—its highest since May 2023 and up from March's 3.3%—alongside core inflation at 2.8%, well above the Federal Reserve's 2% target. This hot data, released May 12, has solidified expectations of policy patience amid a resilient labor market and steady federal funds rate at 3.5%-3.75%, unchanged since the FOMC's April 29 hold with notable dissents. March projections eyed modest easing to a 3.4% midpoint by year-end, but persistent price pressures have shifted sentiment toward no action. Upcoming June FOMC and May CPI will be pivotal catalysts.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Часто задаваемые вопросы