Recent May CPI data showing a 4.2% year-over-year rise—the highest in three years, fueled by a 23.5% surge in energy prices amid Middle East tensions—has reinforced the Federal Reserve’s decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75% at the June 17 FOMC meeting. This outcome, consistent with the pause that began in January, has driven the 79% market-implied probability of Pause–Pause–Pause across the April-July sequence by underscoring sticky inflation and a hawkish policy tilt. The Fed’s updated dot plot, with a median end-2026 projection of 3.8%, further signals limited room for cuts, while upcoming July 28-29 deliberations and June CPI data will test whether the energy-driven inflation shock eases enough to shift expectations. These factors collectively embed trader consensus for continued restraint over near-term easing.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоPause–Pause–Pause 82%
Other 15.8%
Pause–Pause–Cut 1.1%
$104,861 Объем
$104,861 Объем
29 июл. 2026 г.
Pause–Pause–Pause
82%
Pause–Pause–Cut
1%
Other
16%
Pause–Pause–Pause 82%
Other 15.8%
Pause–Pause–Cut 1.1%
$104,861 Объем
$104,861 Объем
29 июл. 2026 г.
Pause–Pause–Pause
$14,315 Объем
82%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$5,879 Объем
1%
Other
$32,501 Объем
16%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmRecent May CPI data showing a 4.2% year-over-year rise—the highest in three years, fueled by a 23.5% surge in energy prices amid Middle East tensions—has reinforced the Federal Reserve’s decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75% at the June 17 FOMC meeting. This outcome, consistent with the pause that began in January, has driven the 79% market-implied probability of Pause–Pause–Pause across the April-July sequence by underscoring sticky inflation and a hawkish policy tilt. The Fed’s updated dot plot, with a median end-2026 projection of 3.8%, further signals limited room for cuts, while upcoming July 28-29 deliberations and June CPI data will test whether the energy-driven inflation shock eases enough to shift expectations. These factors collectively embed trader consensus for continued restraint over near-term easing.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Открытие рынка: Mar 24, 2026, 7:44 PM ET
Объем
$104,861Дата окончания
29 июл. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 24, 2026, 7:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmRecent May CPI data showing a 4.2% year-over-year rise—the highest in three years, fueled by a 23.5% surge in energy prices amid Middle East tensions—has reinforced the Federal Reserve’s decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75% at the June 17 FOMC meeting. This outcome, consistent with the pause that began in January, has driven the 79% market-implied probability of Pause–Pause–Pause across the April-July sequence by underscoring sticky inflation and a hawkish policy tilt. The Fed’s updated dot plot, with a median end-2026 projection of 3.8%, further signals limited room for cuts, while upcoming July 28-29 deliberations and June CPI data will test whether the energy-driven inflation shock eases enough to shift expectations. These factors collectively embed trader consensus for continued restraint over near-term easing.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Объем
$104,861Дата окончания
29 июл. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 24, 2026, 7:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent May CPI data showing a 4.2% year-over-year rise—the highest in three years, fueled by a 23.5% surge in energy prices amid Middle East tensions—has reinforced the Federal Reserve’s decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75% at the June 17 FOMC meeting. This outcome, consistent with the pause that began in January, has driven the 79% market-implied probability of Pause–Pause–Pause across the April-July sequence by underscoring sticky inflation and a hawkish policy tilt. The Fed’s updated dot plot, with a median end-2026 projection of 3.8%, further signals limited room for cuts, while upcoming July 28-29 deliberations and June CPI data will test whether the energy-driven inflation shock eases enough to shift expectations. These factors collectively embed trader consensus for continued restraint over near-term easing.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Часто задаваемые вопросы