Polymarket traders price a 93% implied probability on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) maintaining the fed funds target range at 3.50%-3.75% through its April, June, and July 2026 meetings, reflecting the April 28-29 decision to pause amid an 8-4 split vote signaling internal caution on easing. This consensus solidified after April CPI surged 3.8% year-over-year—its highest since May 2023—and nonfarm payrolls added 115,000 jobs, underscoring a stable labor market despite moderating from March's 185,000 gain. Geopolitical tensions, including the Iran conflict, have amplified inflation risks, prompting Fed Chair Powell to emphasize data dependence in his April 29 press conference. Upcoming May CPI (June 10) and June jobs data could challenge this positioning if they reveal significant softening, potentially reviving cut odds for the June 16-17 meeting.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоPause–Pause–Pause 93%
Pause–Pause–Cut 6.1%
Other 4.3%
Pause–Cut–Pause 1.3%
$48,688 Объем
$48,688 Объем
29 июл. 2026 г.
Pause–Pause–Pause
93%
Pause–Pause–Cut
6%
Pause–Cut–Pause
1%
Pause–Cut–Cut
1%
Other
4%
Pause–Pause–Pause 93%
Pause–Pause–Cut 6.1%
Other 4.3%
Pause–Cut–Pause 1.3%
$48,688 Объем
$48,688 Объем
29 июл. 2026 г.
Pause–Pause–Pause
$2,306 Объем
93%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$1,636 Объем
6%
Pause–Cut–Pause
$1,561 Объем
1%
Pause–Cut–Cut
$1,605 Объем
1%
Other
$1,595 Объем
4%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmPolymarket traders price a 93% implied probability on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) maintaining the fed funds target range at 3.50%-3.75% through its April, June, and July 2026 meetings, reflecting the April 28-29 decision to pause amid an 8-4 split vote signaling internal caution on easing. This consensus solidified after April CPI surged 3.8% year-over-year—its highest since May 2023—and nonfarm payrolls added 115,000 jobs, underscoring a stable labor market despite moderating from March's 185,000 gain. Geopolitical tensions, including the Iran conflict, have amplified inflation risks, prompting Fed Chair Powell to emphasize data dependence in his April 29 press conference. Upcoming May CPI (June 10) and June jobs data could challenge this positioning if they reveal significant softening, potentially reviving cut odds for the June 16-17 meeting.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Открытие рынка: Mar 24, 2026, 7:44 PM ET
Объем
$48,688Дата окончания
29 июл. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 24, 2026, 7:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmPolymarket traders price a 93% implied probability on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) maintaining the fed funds target range at 3.50%-3.75% through its April, June, and July 2026 meetings, reflecting the April 28-29 decision to pause amid an 8-4 split vote signaling internal caution on easing. This consensus solidified after April CPI surged 3.8% year-over-year—its highest since May 2023—and nonfarm payrolls added 115,000 jobs, underscoring a stable labor market despite moderating from March's 185,000 gain. Geopolitical tensions, including the Iran conflict, have amplified inflation risks, prompting Fed Chair Powell to emphasize data dependence in his April 29 press conference. Upcoming May CPI (June 10) and June jobs data could challenge this positioning if they reveal significant softening, potentially reviving cut odds for the June 16-17 meeting.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Объем
$48,688Дата окончания
29 июл. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 24, 2026, 7:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Polymarket traders price a 93% implied probability on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) maintaining the fed funds target range at 3.50%-3.75% through its April, June, and July 2026 meetings, reflecting the April 28-29 decision to pause amid an 8-4 split vote signaling internal caution on easing. This consensus solidified after April CPI surged 3.8% year-over-year—its highest since May 2023—and nonfarm payrolls added 115,000 jobs, underscoring a stable labor market despite moderating from March's 185,000 gain. Geopolitical tensions, including the Iran conflict, have amplified inflation risks, prompting Fed Chair Powell to emphasize data dependence in his April 29 press conference. Upcoming May CPI (June 10) and June jobs data could challenge this positioning if they reveal significant softening, potentially reviving cut odds for the June 16-17 meeting.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Часто задаваемые вопросы