Persistent inflation near 3.5% year-over-year, a solid labor market with unemployment at 4.2%, and three dissents favoring a July hike have elevated the probability of policy tightening or mixed paths in the "Other" category at 62.5%. The Fed held the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75% on July 29 amid energy price pressures from Middle East developments, with markets now assigning roughly 57% odds of a September increase. This dynamic favors the Pause-Pause-Pause outcome at 29.5% only if incoming CPI prints moderate without further shocks, while low probabilities for any rate cuts reflect the central bank's focus on price stability over near-term easing. Key catalysts ahead include the September 15-16 and October 27-28 FOMC meetings plus August inflation data.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоOther 63%
Pause–Pause–Pause 30%
Pause–Pause–Cut 3.3%
Pause–Cut–Pause 2.0%
$657,789 Объем
$657,789 Объем
28 окт. 2026 г.
Pause–Pause–Pause
30%
Pause–Pause–Cut
3%
Pause–Cut–Pause
2%
Pause–Cut–Cut
1%
Other
63%
Other 63%
Pause–Pause–Pause 30%
Pause–Pause–Cut 3.3%
Pause–Cut–Pause 2.0%
$657,789 Объем
$657,789 Объем
28 окт. 2026 г.
Pause–Pause–Pause
$220,903 Объем
30%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$50,978 Объем
3%
Pause–Cut–Pause
$31,752 Объем
2%
Pause–Cut–Cut
$23,264 Объем
1%
Other
$287,403 Объем
63%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmPersistent inflation near 3.5% year-over-year, a solid labor market with unemployment at 4.2%, and three dissents favoring a July hike have elevated the probability of policy tightening or mixed paths in the "Other" category at 62.5%. The Fed held the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75% on July 29 amid energy price pressures from Middle East developments, with markets now assigning roughly 57% odds of a September increase. This dynamic favors the Pause-Pause-Pause outcome at 29.5% only if incoming CPI prints moderate without further shocks, while low probabilities for any rate cuts reflect the central bank's focus on price stability over near-term easing. Key catalysts ahead include the September 15-16 and October 27-28 FOMC meetings plus August inflation data.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Открытие рынка: Jun 17, 2026, 7:17 PM ET
Объем
$657,789Дата окончания
28 окт. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jun 17, 2026, 7:17 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmPersistent inflation near 3.5% year-over-year, a solid labor market with unemployment at 4.2%, and three dissents favoring a July hike have elevated the probability of policy tightening or mixed paths in the "Other" category at 62.5%. The Fed held the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75% on July 29 amid energy price pressures from Middle East developments, with markets now assigning roughly 57% odds of a September increase. This dynamic favors the Pause-Pause-Pause outcome at 29.5% only if incoming CPI prints moderate without further shocks, while low probabilities for any rate cuts reflect the central bank's focus on price stability over near-term easing. Key catalysts ahead include the September 15-16 and October 27-28 FOMC meetings plus August inflation data.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Объем
$657,789Дата окончания
28 окт. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jun 17, 2026, 7:17 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Persistent inflation near 3.5% year-over-year, a solid labor market with unemployment at 4.2%, and three dissents favoring a July hike have elevated the probability of policy tightening or mixed paths in the "Other" category at 62.5%. The Fed held the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75% on July 29 amid energy price pressures from Middle East developments, with markets now assigning roughly 57% odds of a September increase. This dynamic favors the Pause-Pause-Pause outcome at 29.5% only if incoming CPI prints moderate without further shocks, while low probabilities for any rate cuts reflect the central bank's focus on price stability over near-term easing. Key catalysts ahead include the September 15-16 and October 27-28 FOMC meetings plus August inflation data.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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