Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 69% implied probability against a Fed rate hike in 2026, reflecting the FOMC's steady 3.50%-3.75% federal funds target range through April's meeting amid balanced risks. The March 2026 dot plot projected mostly unchanged or modestly lower rates through year-end, aligning with Chair Powell's April 29 press conference affirming current policy as appropriate despite persistent inflation. April CPI accelerated to 3.8% year-over-year—up from 3.3%—driven by energy shocks from the Iran conflict, nudging hike odds to around 31% per CME FedWatch Tool and briefly lifting Yes shares. Upcoming June 16-17 FOMC and May CPI release loom as pivotal catalysts for potential sentiment shifts.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоДа
$1,078,980 Объем
$1,078,980 Объем
9 дек. 2026 г.
Да
$1,078,980 Объем
$1,078,980 Объем
9 дек. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 69% implied probability against a Fed rate hike in 2026, reflecting the FOMC's steady 3.50%-3.75% federal funds target range through April's meeting amid balanced risks. The March 2026 dot plot projected mostly unchanged or modestly lower rates through year-end, aligning with Chair Powell's April 29 press conference affirming current policy as appropriate despite persistent inflation. April CPI accelerated to 3.8% year-over-year—up from 3.3%—driven by energy shocks from the Iran conflict, nudging hike odds to around 31% per CME FedWatch Tool and briefly lifting Yes shares. Upcoming June 16-17 FOMC and May CPI release loom as pivotal catalysts for potential sentiment shifts.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Открытие рынка: Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ET
Объем
$1,078,980Дата окончания
9 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 69% implied probability against a Fed rate hike in 2026, reflecting the FOMC's steady 3.50%-3.75% federal funds target range through April's meeting amid balanced risks. The March 2026 dot plot projected mostly unchanged or modestly lower rates through year-end, aligning with Chair Powell's April 29 press conference affirming current policy as appropriate despite persistent inflation. April CPI accelerated to 3.8% year-over-year—up from 3.3%—driven by energy shocks from the Iran conflict, nudging hike odds to around 31% per CME FedWatch Tool and briefly lifting Yes shares. Upcoming June 16-17 FOMC and May CPI release loom as pivotal catalysts for potential sentiment shifts.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Объем
$1,078,980Дата окончания
9 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 69% implied probability against a Fed rate hike in 2026, reflecting the FOMC's steady 3.50%-3.75% federal funds target range through April's meeting amid balanced risks. The March 2026 dot plot projected mostly unchanged or modestly lower rates through year-end, aligning with Chair Powell's April 29 press conference affirming current policy as appropriate despite persistent inflation. April CPI accelerated to 3.8% year-over-year—up from 3.3%—driven by energy shocks from the Iran conflict, nudging hike odds to around 31% per CME FedWatch Tool and briefly lifting Yes shares. Upcoming June 16-17 FOMC and May CPI release loom as pivotal catalysts for potential sentiment shifts.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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