Resurgent inflation above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, driven by energy price pressures and supply shocks, has shifted market-implied odds for a 2026 federal funds rate hike to 54.5% on Polymarket. The FOMC held the target range steady at 3.50%-3.75% through July amid divided votes, with three members dissenting in favor of a 25-basis-point increase, while recent dot-plot projections showed a median endpoint near 3.75%-4.00%. Solid GDP growth and resilient labor markets contrast with softer payrolls, creating balanced trader sentiment backed by real capital. Upcoming July CPI data and the September FOMC meeting represent key swing factors that could alter the path for monetary policy expectations.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоДа
55% вероятность
$7,326,018 Объем
$7,326,018 Объем
9 дек. 2026 г.
Да
55% вероятность
$7,326,018 Объем
$7,326,018 Объем
9 дек. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Resurgent inflation above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, driven by energy price pressures and supply shocks, has shifted market-implied odds for a 2026 federal funds rate hike to 54.5% on Polymarket. The FOMC held the target range steady at 3.50%-3.75% through July amid divided votes, with three members dissenting in favor of a 25-basis-point increase, while recent dot-plot projections showed a median endpoint near 3.75%-4.00%. Solid GDP growth and resilient labor markets contrast with softer payrolls, creating balanced trader sentiment backed by real capital. Upcoming July CPI data and the September FOMC meeting represent key swing factors that could alter the path for monetary policy expectations.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Открытие рынка: Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ET
Объем
$7,326,018Дата окончания
9 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Resurgent inflation above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, driven by energy price pressures and supply shocks, has shifted market-implied odds for a 2026 federal funds rate hike to 54.5% on Polymarket. The FOMC held the target range steady at 3.50%-3.75% through July amid divided votes, with three members dissenting in favor of a 25-basis-point increase, while recent dot-plot projections showed a median endpoint near 3.75%-4.00%. Solid GDP growth and resilient labor markets contrast with softer payrolls, creating balanced trader sentiment backed by real capital. Upcoming July CPI data and the September FOMC meeting represent key swing factors that could alter the path for monetary policy expectations.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Объем
$7,326,718Дата окончания
9 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Resurgent inflation above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, driven by energy price pressures and supply shocks, has shifted market-implied odds for a 2026 federal funds rate hike to 54.5% on Polymarket. The FOMC held the target range steady at 3.50%-3.75% through July amid divided votes, with three members dissenting in favor of a 25-basis-point increase, while recent dot-plot projections showed a median endpoint near 3.75%-4.00%. Solid GDP growth and resilient labor markets contrast with softer payrolls, creating balanced trader sentiment backed by real capital. Upcoming July CPI data and the September FOMC meeting represent key swing factors that could alter the path for monetary policy expectations.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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