Persistent inflationary pressures above the Fed's 2% target, fueled by energy supply shocks from Middle East tensions, have pushed futures markets to price in a roughly even chance of at least one 25-basis-point hike by year-end 2026, with the federal funds rate currently steady at 3.50-3.75%. Recent July FOMC minutes revealed three dissents favoring an immediate increase, while the June dot plot showed divided projections for the 2026 median rate, reflecting uncertainty over whether solid job growth and productivity gains can offset sticky price levels. Key near-term catalysts include the August CPI release, September FOMC meeting, and any escalation in geopolitical risks that could shift trader consensus on the policy path.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоДа
55% вероятность
$7,314,434 Объем
$7,314,434 Объем
9 дек. 2026 г.
Да
55% вероятность
$7,314,434 Объем
$7,314,434 Объем
9 дек. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Persistent inflationary pressures above the Fed's 2% target, fueled by energy supply shocks from Middle East tensions, have pushed futures markets to price in a roughly even chance of at least one 25-basis-point hike by year-end 2026, with the federal funds rate currently steady at 3.50-3.75%. Recent July FOMC minutes revealed three dissents favoring an immediate increase, while the June dot plot showed divided projections for the 2026 median rate, reflecting uncertainty over whether solid job growth and productivity gains can offset sticky price levels. Key near-term catalysts include the August CPI release, September FOMC meeting, and any escalation in geopolitical risks that could shift trader consensus on the policy path.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Открытие рынка: Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ET
Объем
$7,314,434Дата окончания
9 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Persistent inflationary pressures above the Fed's 2% target, fueled by energy supply shocks from Middle East tensions, have pushed futures markets to price in a roughly even chance of at least one 25-basis-point hike by year-end 2026, with the federal funds rate currently steady at 3.50-3.75%. Recent July FOMC minutes revealed three dissents favoring an immediate increase, while the June dot plot showed divided projections for the 2026 median rate, reflecting uncertainty over whether solid job growth and productivity gains can offset sticky price levels. Key near-term catalysts include the August CPI release, September FOMC meeting, and any escalation in geopolitical risks that could shift trader consensus on the policy path.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Объем
$7,314,439Дата окончания
9 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Persistent inflationary pressures above the Fed's 2% target, fueled by energy supply shocks from Middle East tensions, have pushed futures markets to price in a roughly even chance of at least one 25-basis-point hike by year-end 2026, with the federal funds rate currently steady at 3.50-3.75%. Recent July FOMC minutes revealed three dissents favoring an immediate increase, while the June dot plot showed divided projections for the 2026 median rate, reflecting uncertainty over whether solid job growth and productivity gains can offset sticky price levels. Key near-term catalysts include the August CPI release, September FOMC meeting, and any escalation in geopolitical risks that could shift trader consensus on the policy path.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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