Recent inflation data and divided FOMC signals underpin the near-even 53.5% implied probability of at least one federal funds rate hike in 2026. Headline CPI eased to 3.4% year-over-year in July from 3.5%, with core at 2.5%, yet remains well above the 2% target amid lingering energy price pressures, while the effective funds rate holds steady near 3.63% within the 3.50–3.75% range. Hawkish dissents at recent meetings and dot-plot dispersion—showing roughly half of participants penciling in a higher year-end rate—offset cooler readings and labor-market softening, keeping market-implied odds balanced. Key near-term catalysts include the August CPI release, upcoming employment reports, and the September FOMC decision, where a single 25-basis-point move above the current upper bound would resolve the contract to Yes.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоДа
54% вероятность
$7,379,606 Объем
$7,379,606 Объем
9 дек. 2026 г.
Да
54% вероятность
$7,379,606 Объем
$7,379,606 Объем
9 дек. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent inflation data and divided FOMC signals underpin the near-even 53.5% implied probability of at least one federal funds rate hike in 2026. Headline CPI eased to 3.4% year-over-year in July from 3.5%, with core at 2.5%, yet remains well above the 2% target amid lingering energy price pressures, while the effective funds rate holds steady near 3.63% within the 3.50–3.75% range. Hawkish dissents at recent meetings and dot-plot dispersion—showing roughly half of participants penciling in a higher year-end rate—offset cooler readings and labor-market softening, keeping market-implied odds balanced. Key near-term catalysts include the August CPI release, upcoming employment reports, and the September FOMC decision, where a single 25-basis-point move above the current upper bound would resolve the contract to Yes.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Открытие рынка: Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ET
Объем
$7,379,606Дата окончания
9 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent inflation data and divided FOMC signals underpin the near-even 53.5% implied probability of at least one federal funds rate hike in 2026. Headline CPI eased to 3.4% year-over-year in July from 3.5%, with core at 2.5%, yet remains well above the 2% target amid lingering energy price pressures, while the effective funds rate holds steady near 3.63% within the 3.50–3.75% range. Hawkish dissents at recent meetings and dot-plot dispersion—showing roughly half of participants penciling in a higher year-end rate—offset cooler readings and labor-market softening, keeping market-implied odds balanced. Key near-term catalysts include the August CPI release, upcoming employment reports, and the September FOMC decision, where a single 25-basis-point move above the current upper bound would resolve the contract to Yes.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Объем
$7,379,606Дата окончания
9 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent inflation data and divided FOMC signals underpin the near-even 53.5% implied probability of at least one federal funds rate hike in 2026. Headline CPI eased to 3.4% year-over-year in July from 3.5%, with core at 2.5%, yet remains well above the 2% target amid lingering energy price pressures, while the effective funds rate holds steady near 3.63% within the 3.50–3.75% range. Hawkish dissents at recent meetings and dot-plot dispersion—showing roughly half of participants penciling in a higher year-end rate—offset cooler readings and labor-market softening, keeping market-implied odds balanced. Key near-term catalysts include the August CPI release, upcoming employment reports, and the September FOMC decision, where a single 25-basis-point move above the current upper bound would resolve the contract to Yes.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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