Persistent above-target inflation, with core PCE readings near 3.3 percent, and a resilient labor market featuring unemployment around 4.2 percent have shifted trader expectations toward modest rate hikes or holds by end-2026. Recent FOMC decisions to leave the funds rate at 3.50–3.75 percent, combined with June dot-plot projections showing a median endpoint near 3.75–4.00 percent, underpin the market’s heaviest pricing on 3.75 percent and 4.00 percent outcomes. Geopolitical pressures on energy prices and tariff-related cost pass-through have reinforced inflation concerns, while earlier expectations of cuts have faded in light of firmer data. Scheduled FOMC meetings and upcoming inflation and employment releases through year-end remain key near-term catalysts that could adjust these probabilities.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено3,75% 41.1%
4,0% 27.0%
4,25% 14.1%
3,5% 9.1%
$6,761,552 Объем
$6,761,552 Объем
9 дек. 2026 г.
≤1,0%
<1%
1,25
1%
1,5%
1%
1,75%
<1%
2,0%
<1%
2,25%
<1%
2,5%
1%
2,75%
1%
3,0%
1%
3,25%
1%
3,5%
9%
3,75%
41%
4,0%
27%
4,25%
14%
≥ 4,5%
5%
3,75% 41.1%
4,0% 27.0%
4,25% 14.1%
3,5% 9.1%
$6,761,552 Объем
$6,761,552 Объем
9 дек. 2026 г.
≤1,0%
$244,382 Объем
<1%
1,25
$142,839 Объем
1%
1,5%
$146,320 Объем
1%
1,75%
$148,111 Объем
<1%
2,0%
$263,437 Объем
<1%
2,25%
$87,683 Объем
<1%
2,5%
$172,955 Объем
1%
2,75%
$61,131 Объем
1%
3,0%
$488,822 Объем
1%
3,25%
$66,074 Объем
1%
3,5%
$202,475 Объем
9%
3,75%
$531,856 Объем
41%
4,0%
$1,369,292 Объем
27%
4,25%
$428,209 Объем
14%
≥ 4,5%
$2,407,967 Объем
5%
The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).Persistent above-target inflation, with core PCE readings near 3.3 percent, and a resilient labor market featuring unemployment around 4.2 percent have shifted trader expectations toward modest rate hikes or holds by end-2026. Recent FOMC decisions to leave the funds rate at 3.50–3.75 percent, combined with June dot-plot projections showing a median endpoint near 3.75–4.00 percent, underpin the market’s heaviest pricing on 3.75 percent and 4.00 percent outcomes. Geopolitical pressures on energy prices and tariff-related cost pass-through have reinforced inflation concerns, while earlier expectations of cuts have faded in light of firmer data. Scheduled FOMC meetings and upcoming inflation and employment releases through year-end remain key near-term catalysts that could adjust these probabilities.
The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
Открытие рынка: Jan 12, 2026, 12:43 PM ET
Объем
$6,761,552Дата окончания
9 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 12, 2026, 12:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).Persistent above-target inflation, with core PCE readings near 3.3 percent, and a resilient labor market featuring unemployment around 4.2 percent have shifted trader expectations toward modest rate hikes or holds by end-2026. Recent FOMC decisions to leave the funds rate at 3.50–3.75 percent, combined with June dot-plot projections showing a median endpoint near 3.75–4.00 percent, underpin the market’s heaviest pricing on 3.75 percent and 4.00 percent outcomes. Geopolitical pressures on energy prices and tariff-related cost pass-through have reinforced inflation concerns, while earlier expectations of cuts have faded in light of firmer data. Scheduled FOMC meetings and upcoming inflation and employment releases through year-end remain key near-term catalysts that could adjust these probabilities.
The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
Объем
$6,761,552Дата окончания
9 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 12, 2026, 12:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Persistent above-target inflation, with core PCE readings near 3.3 percent, and a resilient labor market featuring unemployment around 4.2 percent have shifted trader expectations toward modest rate hikes or holds by end-2026. Recent FOMC decisions to leave the funds rate at 3.50–3.75 percent, combined with June dot-plot projections showing a median endpoint near 3.75–4.00 percent, underpin the market’s heaviest pricing on 3.75 percent and 4.00 percent outcomes. Geopolitical pressures on energy prices and tariff-related cost pass-through have reinforced inflation concerns, while earlier expectations of cuts have faded in light of firmer data. Scheduled FOMC meetings and upcoming inflation and employment releases through year-end remain key near-term catalysts that could adjust these probabilities.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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