The 10-year Treasury yield stands near 4.69 percent as of mid-August 2026, reflecting trader focus on sticky core inflation, elevated fiscal deficits driving heavy Treasury supply, and resilient economic growth that has tempered expectations for aggressive Federal Reserve easing. Recent oil price spikes tied to geopolitical tensions have added upward pressure on breakeven inflation measures, while softer July nonfarm payrolls data moderated near-term rate-hike probabilities. Market-implied paths now balance the risk of yields testing 2026 highs above 4.7 percent against longer-term forecasts pointing toward gradual moderation. Key upcoming catalysts include August CPI and PCE releases plus the September FOMC meeting, which will shape near-term rate expectations and the path toward 2027.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоНасколько высокой будет доходность 10-летних казначейских облигаций до 2027 года?
Насколько высокой будет доходность 10-летних казначейских облигаций до 2027 года?
$282,644 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
4,8%
67%
5,0%
28%
5,2%
17%
5,5%
11%
5,7%
8%
6,0%
6%
$282,644 Объем
4,8%
$59,042 Объем
67%
5,0%
$80,623 Объем
28%
5,2%
$25,105 Объем
17%
5,5%
$4,605 Объем
11%
5,7%
$4,015 Объем
8%
6,0%
$2,968 Объем
6%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between December 9, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).The 10-year Treasury yield stands near 4.69 percent as of mid-August 2026, reflecting trader focus on sticky core inflation, elevated fiscal deficits driving heavy Treasury supply, and resilient economic growth that has tempered expectations for aggressive Federal Reserve easing. Recent oil price spikes tied to geopolitical tensions have added upward pressure on breakeven inflation measures, while softer July nonfarm payrolls data moderated near-term rate-hike probabilities. Market-implied paths now balance the risk of yields testing 2026 highs above 4.7 percent against longer-term forecasts pointing toward gradual moderation. Key upcoming catalysts include August CPI and PCE releases plus the September FOMC meeting, which will shape near-term rate expectations and the path toward 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
Открытие рынка: Nov 12, 2025, 5:48 PM ET
Объем
$282,644Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Nov 12, 2025, 5:48 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between December 9, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).The 10-year Treasury yield stands near 4.69 percent as of mid-August 2026, reflecting trader focus on sticky core inflation, elevated fiscal deficits driving heavy Treasury supply, and resilient economic growth that has tempered expectations for aggressive Federal Reserve easing. Recent oil price spikes tied to geopolitical tensions have added upward pressure on breakeven inflation measures, while softer July nonfarm payrolls data moderated near-term rate-hike probabilities. Market-implied paths now balance the risk of yields testing 2026 highs above 4.7 percent against longer-term forecasts pointing toward gradual moderation. Key upcoming catalysts include August CPI and PCE releases plus the September FOMC meeting, which will shape near-term rate expectations and the path toward 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
Объем
$282,644Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Nov 12, 2025, 5:48 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The 10-year Treasury yield stands near 4.69 percent as of mid-August 2026, reflecting trader focus on sticky core inflation, elevated fiscal deficits driving heavy Treasury supply, and resilient economic growth that has tempered expectations for aggressive Federal Reserve easing. Recent oil price spikes tied to geopolitical tensions have added upward pressure on breakeven inflation measures, while softer July nonfarm payrolls data moderated near-term rate-hike probabilities. Market-implied paths now balance the risk of yields testing 2026 highs above 4.7 percent against longer-term forecasts pointing toward gradual moderation. Key upcoming catalysts include August CPI and PCE releases plus the September FOMC meeting, which will shape near-term rate expectations and the path toward 2027.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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