This market will resolve according to the next individual formally confirmed as Chair of the Federal Reserve.
Formal confirmation as Chair of the Federal Reserve requires the Senate to confirm a nominee as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count. Senate confirmation of a listed individual as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
If no Senate confirmation for the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve has occurred by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the U.S. Senate; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Senate confirmation of Kevin Warsh as Federal Reserve Board Governor by a 51-45 party-line vote on May 12 has solidified trader consensus at near-certainty for his chairmanship, succeeding Jerome Powell whose term ends May 15. Trump's nominee, a former Fed Governor from 2006-2011, advanced through the Senate Banking Committee in late April after a contentious hearing and cleared cloture on May 11, reflecting Republican majority control and historical patterns where advanced nominees secure full Senate approval. Warsh's hawkish monetary policy views and prior experience outweigh Democratic opposition on independence concerns. Realistic challenges remain slim but could include a late senator defection, ethics probe, or unforeseen scandal derailing the final floor vote expected imminently.
This market will resolve according to the next individual formally confirmed as Chair of the Federal Reserve.
Formal confirmation as Chair of the Federal Reserve requires the Senate to confirm a nominee as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count. Senate confirmation of a listed individual as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
If no Senate confirmation for the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve has occurred by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the U.S. Senate; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the next individual formally confirmed as Chair of the Federal Reserve.
Formal confirmation as Chair of the Federal Reserve requires the Senate to confirm a nominee as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count. Senate confirmation of a listed individual as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
If no Senate confirmation for the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve has occurred by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the U.S. Senate; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Senate confirmation of Kevin Warsh as Federal Reserve Board Governor by a 51-45 party-line vote on May 12 has solidified trader consensus at near-certainty for his chairmanship, succeeding Jerome Powell whose term ends May 15. Trump's nominee, a former Fed Governor from 2006-2011, advanced through the Senate Banking Committee in late April after a contentious hearing and cleared cloture on May 11, reflecting Republican majority control and historical patterns where advanced nominees secure full Senate approval. Warsh's hawkish monetary policy views and prior experience outweigh Democratic opposition on independence concerns. Realistic challenges remain slim but could include a late senator defection, ethics probe, or unforeseen scandal derailing the final floor vote expected imminently.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
May 2 2026
Market
Kevin Warsh rises to 100%1%
With committee approval and no further obstacles, traders
Apr 26 2026
Senate Banking Committee votes 13-11 along party lines to advance Kevin Warsh nomination
Kevin Warsh rises to 99%1%
The committee approved Warsh's nomination, with all Republicans supporting and Democrats opposing, setting the stage for a full Senate vote and pushing market
Apr 24 2026
DOJ closes criminal investigation into Jerome Powell, removing key obstacle for Warsh confirmation
Kevin Warsh rises to 98%4%
The Department of Justice ended its probe into Powell, which had been blocking Senator Thom Tillis's support for Warsh, clearing a major hurdle and sharply increasing Warsh's confirmation probability.
Apr 22 2026
Senator Thom Tillis announces support for Warsh confirmation after DOJ ends Powell investigation
Kevin Warsh rises to 98%4%
Tillis's shift to support Warsh following the investigation closure was pivotal, removing a major confirmation blockade and driving Warsh's market
Apr 21 2026
Senator Elizabeth Warren criticizes Warsh nomination as a "sock puppet" for Trump, opposing confirmation
Kevin Warsh dips to 94%1%
Warren's vocal opposition contributed to Democratic resistance in the committee vote, slightly tempering Warsh's market gains during the hearing period.
Apr 21 2026
Kevin Warsh faces intense questioning at Senate confirmation hearing, emphasizes Fed independence
Kevin Warsh dips to 94%1%
During his hearing, Warsh stressed his independence from President Trump and openness to rate cuts, but faced tough questions and political skepticism, causing a slight market dip.
Mar 31 2026
Senate Banking Committee schedules Kevin Warsh confirmation hearing for mid-April
Kevin Warsh rises to 95%1%
The Senate Banking Committee announced the confirmation hearing for Warsh in the week of April 13, signaling progress in the nomination process amid rising inflation and geopolitical tensions.
Mar 14 2026
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent urges Senate to proceed with Warsh hearings despite ongoing Powell investigation
Scott Bessent dips to 0%2%
Bessent's call to continue hearings amid the Powell probe failed to sway blocking senators, leading to a decline in Warsh rivals' market shares, including Bessent himself.
Bowman saw a small uptick in market interest as a potential alternative, but this quickly faded as Warsh's nomination advanced and other candidates lost traction.
Mar 4 2026
White House officially submits Kevin Warsh nomination for Federal Reserve Chair and Board of Governors
Kevin Warsh jumps to 94%5%
President Trump formally submitted Kevin Warsh's nomination to the Senate for both Fed Chair and Board of Governors positions, marking the official start of the confirmation process and boosting market confidence in Warsh's chances.
This market will resolve according to the next individual formally confirmed as Chair of the Federal Reserve.
Formal confirmation as Chair of the Federal Reserve requires the Senate to confirm a nominee as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count. Senate confirmation of a listed individual as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
If no Senate confirmation for the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve has occurred by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the U.S. Senate; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Senate confirmation of Kevin Warsh as Federal Reserve Board Governor by a 51-45 party-line vote on May 12 has solidified trader consensus at near-certainty for his chairmanship, succeeding Jerome Powell whose term ends May 15. Trump's nominee, a former Fed Governor from 2006-2011, advanced through the Senate Banking Committee in late April after a contentious hearing and cleared cloture on May 11, reflecting Republican majority control and historical patterns where advanced nominees secure full Senate approval. Warsh's hawkish monetary policy views and prior experience outweigh Democratic opposition on independence concerns. Realistic challenges remain slim but could include a late senator defection, ethics probe, or unforeseen scandal derailing the final floor vote expected imminently.
This market will resolve according to the next individual formally confirmed as Chair of the Federal Reserve.
Formal confirmation as Chair of the Federal Reserve requires the Senate to confirm a nominee as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count. Senate confirmation of a listed individual as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
If no Senate confirmation for the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve has occurred by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the U.S. Senate; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the next individual formally confirmed as Chair of the Federal Reserve.
Formal confirmation as Chair of the Federal Reserve requires the Senate to confirm a nominee as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count. Senate confirmation of a listed individual as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
If no Senate confirmation for the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve has occurred by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the U.S. Senate; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Senate confirmation of Kevin Warsh as Federal Reserve Board Governor by a 51-45 party-line vote on May 12 has solidified trader consensus at near-certainty for his chairmanship, succeeding Jerome Powell whose term ends May 15. Trump's nominee, a former Fed Governor from 2006-2011, advanced through the Senate Banking Committee in late April after a contentious hearing and cleared cloture on May 11, reflecting Republican majority control and historical patterns where advanced nominees secure full Senate approval. Warsh's hawkish monetary policy views and prior experience outweigh Democratic opposition on independence concerns. Realistic challenges remain slim but could include a late senator defection, ethics probe, or unforeseen scandal derailing the final floor vote expected imminently.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
May 2 2026
Market
Kevin Warsh rises to 100%1%
With committee approval and no further obstacles, traders
Apr 26 2026
Senate Banking Committee votes 13-11 along party lines to advance Kevin Warsh nomination
Kevin Warsh rises to 99%1%
The committee approved Warsh's nomination, with all Republicans supporting and Democrats opposing, setting the stage for a full Senate vote and pushing market
Apr 24 2026
DOJ closes criminal investigation into Jerome Powell, removing key obstacle for Warsh confirmation
Kevin Warsh rises to 98%4%
The Department of Justice ended its probe into Powell, which had been blocking Senator Thom Tillis's support for Warsh, clearing a major hurdle and sharply increasing Warsh's confirmation probability.
Apr 22 2026
Senator Thom Tillis announces support for Warsh confirmation after DOJ ends Powell investigation
Kevin Warsh rises to 98%4%
Tillis's shift to support Warsh following the investigation closure was pivotal, removing a major confirmation blockade and driving Warsh's market
Apr 21 2026
Senator Elizabeth Warren criticizes Warsh nomination as a "sock puppet" for Trump, opposing confirmation
Kevin Warsh dips to 94%1%
Warren's vocal opposition contributed to Democratic resistance in the committee vote, slightly tempering Warsh's market gains during the hearing period.
Apr 21 2026
Kevin Warsh faces intense questioning at Senate confirmation hearing, emphasizes Fed independence
Kevin Warsh dips to 94%1%
During his hearing, Warsh stressed his independence from President Trump and openness to rate cuts, but faced tough questions and political skepticism, causing a slight market dip.
Mar 31 2026
Senate Banking Committee schedules Kevin Warsh confirmation hearing for mid-April
Kevin Warsh rises to 95%1%
The Senate Banking Committee announced the confirmation hearing for Warsh in the week of April 13, signaling progress in the nomination process amid rising inflation and geopolitical tensions.
Mar 14 2026
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent urges Senate to proceed with Warsh hearings despite ongoing Powell investigation
Scott Bessent dips to 0%2%
Bessent's call to continue hearings amid the Powell probe failed to sway blocking senators, leading to a decline in Warsh rivals' market shares, including Bessent himself.
Bowman saw a small uptick in market interest as a potential alternative, but this quickly faded as Warsh's nomination advanced and other candidates lost traction.
Mar 4 2026
White House officially submits Kevin Warsh nomination for Federal Reserve Chair and Board of Governors
Kevin Warsh jumps to 94%5%
President Trump formally submitted Kevin Warsh's nomination to the Senate for both Fed Chair and Board of Governors positions, marking the official start of the confirmation process and boosting market confidence in Warsh's chances.
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Часто задаваемые вопросы
«Кто будет утвержден в качестве председателя ФРС?» — это рынок прогнозов на Polymarket с 9 возможными исходами, где трейдеры покупают и продают акции на основе своих прогнозов. Текущий лидирующий исход — «Кевин Уорш» с 100%, за ним следует «Джуди Шелтон» с 0%. Цены отражают вероятности сообщества в реальном времени. Например, акция по цене 100¢ означает, что рынок коллективно оценивает вероятность этого исхода в 100%. Эти коэффициенты постоянно меняются. Акции правильного исхода можно обменять на $1 каждую при разрешении рынка.
На сегодняшний день «Кто будет утвержден в качестве председателя ФРС?» сгенерировал общий объём торгов $64.4 million с момента запуска рынка Mar 4, 2026. Такой уровень активности отражает высокую вовлечённость сообщества Polymarket и гарантирует, что текущие коэффициенты формируются широким кругом участников рынка. Ты можешь отслеживать движение цен в реальном времени и торговать любым исходом прямо на этой странице.
Чтобы торговать на «Кто будет утвержден в качестве председателя ФРС?», просмотри 9 доступных исходов на этой странице. Каждый исход показывает текущую цену, представляющую подразумеваемую вероятность рынка. Чтобы занять позицию, выбери исход, который считаешь наиболее вероятным, выбери «Да» для торговли в его пользу или «Нет» для торговли против, введи сумму и нажми «Торговать». Если твой выбранный исход окажется верным, твои акции «Да» принесут $1 каждая. Если нет — $0. Ты также можешь продать акции до разрешения.
Текущий фаворит для «Кто будет утвержден в качестве председателя ФРС?» — «Кевин Уорш» с 100%, что означает, что рынок оценивает вероятность этого исхода в 100%. Следующий ближайший исход — «Джуди Шелтон» с 0%. Эти коэффициенты обновляются в реальном времени по мере покупки и продажи акций. Заходи чаще или добавь страницу в закладки.
Правила разрешения «Кто будет утвержден в качестве председателя ФРС?» точно определяют, что должно произойти, чтобы каждый исход был объявлен победителем, включая официальные источники данных, используемые для определения результата. Ты можешь просмотреть полные критерии разрешения в разделе «Правила» на этой странице над комментариями. Мы рекомендуем внимательно прочитать правила перед торговлей, так как они определяют точные условия, особые случаи и источники.
Да. Тебе не нужно торговать, чтобы оставаться в курсе. Эта страница служит трекером в реальном времени для «Кто будет утвержден в качестве председателя ФРС?». Вероятности исходов обновляются в реальном времени по мере поступления новых сделок. Ты можешь добавить эту страницу в закладки и читать раздел комментариев, чтобы узнать мнение других трейдеров. Ты также можешь использовать фильтры временного диапазона на графике, чтобы увидеть, как менялись коэффициенты со временем.
Коэффициенты Polymarket устанавливаются реальными трейдерами, вкладывающими реальные деньги в свои убеждения, что обычно приводит к точным прогнозам. С объёмом торгов $64.4 million по “Кто будет утвержден в качестве председателя ФРС?” эти цены агрегируют коллективные знания и убеждённость тысяч участников — часто превосходя опросы, экспертные прогнозы и традиционные исследования. Рынки прогнозов, такие как Polymarket, имеют сильный послужной список точности, особенно когда события приближаются к дате разрешения. Например, месячный показатель точности Polymarket составляет 94%. Для получения последних статистических данных о точности прогнозов Polymarket посети страницу точности на Polymarket.
Чтобы совершить первую сделку на «Кто будет утвержден в качестве председателя ФРС?», зарегистрируй бесплатный аккаунт на Polymarket и пополни его с помощью криптовалюты, кредитной или дебетовой карты или банковского перевода. После пополнения аккаунта вернись на эту страницу, выбери исход, на который хочешь торговать, введи сумму и нажми «Торговать». Если ты новичок на рынках прогнозов, нажми на ссылку «Как это работает» вверху любой страницы Polymarket для пошагового руководства.
На Polymarket цена каждого исхода представляет подразумеваемую вероятность рынка. Цена 100¢ для «Кевин Уорш» на рынке «Кто будет утвержден в качестве председателя ФРС?» означает, что трейдеры коллективно оценивают вероятность того, что «Кевин Уорш» будет правильным результатом, примерно в 100%. Если ты купишь акции «Да» по 100¢ и исход окажется правильным, ты получишь $1,00 за акцию — прибыль 0¢ за акцию. Если нет — эти акции будут стоить $0.
Рынок «Кто будет утвержден в качестве председателя ФРС?» запланирован к разрешению примерно Oct 31, 2026. Это означает, что торговля остаётся открытой, а коэффициенты продолжат меняться до этой даты. Точные сроки разрешения зависят от момента появления официального результата, как описано в разделе «Правила».
Рынок «Кто будет утвержден в качестве председателя ФРС?» имеет активное сообщество из 112 комментариев, где трейдеры делятся своим анализом, обсуждают исходы и последние события. Прокрути вниз до раздела комментариев, чтобы прочитать, что думают другие участники. Ты также можешь фильтровать по «Топ-держателям» или проверить вкладку «Активность» для ленты сделок в реальном времени.
Polymarket — крупнейший в мире рынок прогнозов, где ты можешь оставаться в курсе событий и зарабатывать на своих знаниях о реальных событиях. Трейдеры покупают и продают акции на исходы по темам от политики и выборов до криптовалют, финансов, спорта, технологий и культуры, включая рынки вроде «Кто будет утвержден в качестве председателя ФРС?». Цены отражают вероятности в реальном времени, подкреплённые финансовыми убеждениями, зачастую обеспечивая более быстрые и точные сигналы, чем опросы, эксперты или традиционные исследования.
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Часто задаваемые вопросы