Recent softer-than-expected July 2026 CPI data, with the headline rising just 0.1% month-over-month and 3.4% year-over-year alongside core measures near 2.5%, has eased near-term inflation concerns and tempered expectations for aggressive Fed tightening. The 10-year Treasury yield currently hovers around 4.65%, reflecting a market-implied policy path with the federal funds rate held steady near 3.5-3.75% amid persistent but contained price pressures from energy and shelter. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continue to support upside risks to yields through oil prices, while upcoming catalysts including September FOMC deliberations, August employment reports, and subsequent PCE releases will shape trader views on how far yields could decline before 2027. Fiscal supply dynamics and global growth differentials add further layers of uncertainty to the rate trajectory.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено$224,922 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
3,9%
11%
3,8%
5%
3,7%
3%
3,6%
6%
3,5%
4%
3,0%
2%
2,0%
4%
1,0%
2%
$224,922 Объем
3,9%
$44,197 Объем
11%
3,8%
$41,312 Объем
5%
3,7%
$27,261 Объем
3%
3,6%
$5,537 Объем
6%
3,5%
$32,904 Объем
4%
3,0%
$901 Объем
2%
2,0%
$482 Объем
4%
1,0%
$40,570 Объем
2%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).Recent softer-than-expected July 2026 CPI data, with the headline rising just 0.1% month-over-month and 3.4% year-over-year alongside core measures near 2.5%, has eased near-term inflation concerns and tempered expectations for aggressive Fed tightening. The 10-year Treasury yield currently hovers around 4.65%, reflecting a market-implied policy path with the federal funds rate held steady near 3.5-3.75% amid persistent but contained price pressures from energy and shelter. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continue to support upside risks to yields through oil prices, while upcoming catalysts including September FOMC deliberations, August employment reports, and subsequent PCE releases will shape trader views on how far yields could decline before 2027. Fiscal supply dynamics and global growth differentials add further layers of uncertainty to the rate trajectory.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
Открытие рынка: Nov 12, 2025, 6:01 PM ET
Объем
$224,922Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Nov 12, 2025, 6:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).Recent softer-than-expected July 2026 CPI data, with the headline rising just 0.1% month-over-month and 3.4% year-over-year alongside core measures near 2.5%, has eased near-term inflation concerns and tempered expectations for aggressive Fed tightening. The 10-year Treasury yield currently hovers around 4.65%, reflecting a market-implied policy path with the federal funds rate held steady near 3.5-3.75% amid persistent but contained price pressures from energy and shelter. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continue to support upside risks to yields through oil prices, while upcoming catalysts including September FOMC deliberations, August employment reports, and subsequent PCE releases will shape trader views on how far yields could decline before 2027. Fiscal supply dynamics and global growth differentials add further layers of uncertainty to the rate trajectory.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
Объем
$224,922Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Nov 12, 2025, 6:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent softer-than-expected July 2026 CPI data, with the headline rising just 0.1% month-over-month and 3.4% year-over-year alongside core measures near 2.5%, has eased near-term inflation concerns and tempered expectations for aggressive Fed tightening. The 10-year Treasury yield currently hovers around 4.65%, reflecting a market-implied policy path with the federal funds rate held steady near 3.5-3.75% amid persistent but contained price pressures from energy and shelter. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continue to support upside risks to yields through oil prices, while upcoming catalysts including September FOMC deliberations, August employment reports, and subsequent PCE releases will shape trader views on how far yields could decline before 2027. Fiscal supply dynamics and global growth differentials add further layers of uncertainty to the rate trajectory.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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