The Bank of Korea’s August 27 decision to deliver consecutive 25 basis point hikes to 3.00%—its first back-to-back tightening in over three years—has anchored trader expectations for a pause at the October 22 meeting, with the 79% market-implied probability of no change reflecting the board’s emphasis on assessing the cumulative effects of recent tightening amid still-elevated inflation near 3.1% in August and a revised-up 3.3% 2026 growth forecast driven by semiconductor exports. Core inflation at 2.6% and accelerating Seoul housing prices plus household debt growth continue to support vigilance, yet minutes from the August meeting and September communications highlight internal divisions and a data-dependent, gradual path, with the dot plot centering on 3.25% by year-end. The recent Federal Reserve hike widening the policy gap adds external pressure, but analysts largely see November or later as the next potential move rather than October.