Banxico’s unanimous August decision to hold the benchmark rate steady at 6.50% reflects the primary driver behind the 92.5% market-implied probability of no change at the November meeting. Inflation eased to 3.26% year-over-year in August, remaining inside the 2-4% target band, while core measures stayed elevated near 3.88%, prompting officials to emphasize a prolonged pause amid persistent services pressures and upside risks from trade policies, geopolitics, and potential peso weakness. Traders’ skin-in-the-game consensus aligns with Banxico’s forward guidance projecting headline inflation convergence only by late 2027. A sharper downside surprise in September CPI or weak Q3 growth could reopen cut expectations, while renewed inflation spikes might introduce hike risks, though both appear limited near term.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоБез изменений 93%
Снижение на 25 б.п. 5.6%
Повышение на 25 б.п. 2.6%
Повышение более чем на 50 б.п. <1%
$14,127 Объем
$14,127 Объем
5 нояб. 2026 г.
Снижение более чем на 50 б.п.
<1%
Снижение на 25 б.п.
6%
Без изменений
93%
Повышение на 25 б.п.
3%
Повышение более чем на 50 б.п.
<1%
Без изменений 93%
Снижение на 25 б.п. 5.6%
Повышение на 25 б.п. 2.6%
Повышение более чем на 50 б.п. <1%
$14,127 Объем
$14,127 Объем
5 нояб. 2026 г.
Снижение более чем на 50 б.п.
$545 Объем
<1%
Снижение на 25 б.п.
$837 Объем
6%
Без изменений
$11,825 Объем
93%
Повышение на 25 б.п.
$575 Объем
3%
Повышение более чем на 50 б.п.
$346 Объем
<1%
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the overnight interbank interest rate resulting from the November 2026 meeting of the Bank of Mexico, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Mexico, including the statement or release from its November 2026 meeting, scheduled for November 5, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Mexico calendar (https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Mexico resulting from its November 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.Banxico’s unanimous August decision to hold the benchmark rate steady at 6.50% reflects the primary driver behind the 92.5% market-implied probability of no change at the November meeting. Inflation eased to 3.26% year-over-year in August, remaining inside the 2-4% target band, while core measures stayed elevated near 3.88%, prompting officials to emphasize a prolonged pause amid persistent services pressures and upside risks from trade policies, geopolitics, and potential peso weakness. Traders’ skin-in-the-game consensus aligns with Banxico’s forward guidance projecting headline inflation convergence only by late 2027. A sharper downside surprise in September CPI or weak Q3 growth could reopen cut expectations, while renewed inflation spikes might introduce hike risks, though both appear limited near term.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the overnight interbank interest rate resulting from the November 2026 meeting of the Bank of Mexico, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Mexico, including the statement or release from its November 2026 meeting, scheduled for November 5, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Mexico calendar (https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Mexico resulting from its November 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Mexico, including the statement or release from its November 2026 meeting, scheduled for November 5, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Mexico calendar (https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Mexico resulting from its November 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
Открытие рынка: Aug 6, 2026, 3:16 PM ET
Объем
$14,127Дата окончания
5 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 6, 2026, 3:16 PM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jspКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the overnight interbank interest rate resulting from the November 2026 meeting of the Bank of Mexico, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Mexico, including the statement or release from its November 2026 meeting, scheduled for November 5, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Mexico calendar (https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Mexico resulting from its November 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.Banxico’s unanimous August decision to hold the benchmark rate steady at 6.50% reflects the primary driver behind the 92.5% market-implied probability of no change at the November meeting. Inflation eased to 3.26% year-over-year in August, remaining inside the 2-4% target band, while core measures stayed elevated near 3.88%, prompting officials to emphasize a prolonged pause amid persistent services pressures and upside risks from trade policies, geopolitics, and potential peso weakness. Traders’ skin-in-the-game consensus aligns with Banxico’s forward guidance projecting headline inflation convergence only by late 2027. A sharper downside surprise in September CPI or weak Q3 growth could reopen cut expectations, while renewed inflation spikes might introduce hike risks, though both appear limited near term.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the overnight interbank interest rate resulting from the November 2026 meeting of the Bank of Mexico, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Mexico, including the statement or release from its November 2026 meeting, scheduled for November 5, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Mexico calendar (https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Mexico resulting from its November 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Mexico, including the statement or release from its November 2026 meeting, scheduled for November 5, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Mexico calendar (https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Mexico resulting from its November 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
Объем
$14,127Дата окончания
5 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 6, 2026, 3:16 PM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jspКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...Banxico’s unanimous August decision to hold the benchmark rate steady at 6.50% reflects the primary driver behind the 92.5% market-implied probability of no change at the November meeting. Inflation eased to 3.26% year-over-year in August, remaining inside the 2-4% target band, while core measures stayed elevated near 3.88%, prompting officials to emphasize a prolonged pause amid persistent services pressures and upside risks from trade policies, geopolitics, and potential peso weakness. Traders’ skin-in-the-game consensus aligns with Banxico’s forward guidance projecting headline inflation convergence only by late 2027. A sharper downside surprise in September CPI or weak Q3 growth could reopen cut expectations, while renewed inflation spikes might introduce hike risks, though both appear limited near term.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
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