Ella Langley’s “Choosin’ Texas” holds overwhelming trader consensus at 94.5% implied probability thanks to its record-shattering dominance on the Billboard Hot 100. The track has already logged 19 non-consecutive weeks at No. 1 through late August 2026, tying for the longest non-holiday reign ever while setting the mark for longest-running No. 1 by a solo female country artist. Sustained metrics—roughly 24 million weekly streams, 50-plus million radio impressions, and steady sales—combined with its crossover appeal from the Dandelion album and Miranda Lambert co-writing credit have kept it ahead of challengers like Stella Lefty’s “Boston” and recent Morgan Wallen or Taylor Swift entries. An upset for the September 12 chart week would require an unusually strong debut from a major new release or a sudden surge in streaming for one of the lower-probability tracks during the final tracking days.