Recent energy price volatility tied to Middle East developments drove a May 2026 headline CPI spike to 3.2% before easing to 2.8% in June, with core measures (BoC trim and median) declining to around 1.8-1.9%. Subdued Canadian growth, slowing shelter inflation, and a Bank of Canada policy rate held at 2.25% since early 2026 have anchored trader expectations for an annual average near 2.5%. Official projections from the BoC and federal budget point to headline inflation hovering around 2.5% for 2026 before easing toward the 2% target in 2027, while analyst forecasts emphasize limited pass-through from energy costs amid weak demand. The 2.5–2.9% band leads implied probabilities as markets price in this trajectory ahead of the July CPI release and the next Monetary Policy Report.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоГодовая инфляция в Канаде в 2026 году
2,5–2,9% 36.1%
2,0–2,4% 16.4%
3,0–3,4% 15.9%
1,5–1,9% 14.4%
$38,286 Объем
$38,286 Объем
<1,0%
3%
1,0–1,4%
5%
1,5–1,9%
14%
2,0–2,4%
16%
2,5–2,9%
36%
3,0–3,4%
16%
3,5-3,9%
13%
4,0%+
5%
2,5–2,9% 36.1%
2,0–2,4% 16.4%
3,0–3,4% 15.9%
1,5–1,9% 14.4%
$38,286 Объем
$38,286 Объем
<1,0%
3%
1,0–1,4%
5%
1,5–1,9%
14%
2,0–2,4%
16%
2,5–2,9%
36%
3,0–3,4%
16%
3,5-3,9%
13%
4,0%+
5%
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly Statistics Canada report.
The resolution source for this market will be the Statistics Canada Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start), currently scheduled to be released on January 18, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Once available, you can find this report by clicking on the "Major Economic Indicators" heading on the home page of https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start and selecting the “Consumer Price Index” report for the relevant month. The relevant figure can be found in “Table 1” under the "% change" column for the relevant month and year compared to the same month of the previous year.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Statistics Canada CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/cal1-eng.htm?sk=3665
Открытие рынка: Jan 21, 2026, 7:22 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly Statistics Canada report.
The resolution source for this market will be the Statistics Canada Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start), currently scheduled to be released on January 18, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Once available, you can find this report by clicking on the "Major Economic Indicators" heading on the home page of https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start and selecting the “Consumer Price Index” report for the relevant month. The relevant figure can be found in “Table 1” under the "% change" column for the relevant month and year compared to the same month of the previous year.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Statistics Canada CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/cal1-eng.htm?sk=3665
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent energy price volatility tied to Middle East developments drove a May 2026 headline CPI spike to 3.2% before easing to 2.8% in June, with core measures (BoC trim and median) declining to around 1.8-1.9%. Subdued Canadian growth, slowing shelter inflation, and a Bank of Canada policy rate held at 2.25% since early 2026 have anchored trader expectations for an annual average near 2.5%. Official projections from the BoC and federal budget point to headline inflation hovering around 2.5% for 2026 before easing toward the 2% target in 2027, while analyst forecasts emphasize limited pass-through from energy costs amid weak demand. The 2.5–2.9% band leads implied probabilities as markets price in this trajectory ahead of the July CPI release and the next Monetary Policy Report.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено



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