Recent releases from Anthropic, including Claude Opus 5 and Fable 5 variants posting Elo scores around 1510–1511 on the Arena leaderboard, alongside OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 series at 1509, have anchored trader expectations for incremental gains through year-end. Progress since early 2026 has shifted toward iterative refinements, “thinking” modes, and increased voting volume rather than large capability jumps, keeping thresholds like 1520 or 1530 contested but plausible within the remaining months. Competitive pressure among Anthropic, OpenAI, Google, and xAI, plus potential new model drops or fine-tunes ahead of major conferences, drives the market-implied odds. Traders monitor announcement cadence closely, as even modest single-digit Elo lifts from established leaders could resolve higher-score outcomes.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоДостигнет ли какая-либо модель ИИ ___ Общего балла арены к 31 декабря?
Достигнет ли какая-либо модель ИИ ___ Общего балла арены к 31 декабря?
$142,549 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
↑ 1520
65%
↑ 1530
27%
↑ 1540
17%
↑ 1550
12%
↑ 1600
10%
↑ 1650
8%
↑ 1700
3%
$142,549 Объем
↑ 1520
$7,379 Объем
65%
↑ 1530
$7,605 Объем
27%
↑ 1540
$1,337 Объем
17%
↑ 1550
$48,924 Объем
12%
↑ 1600
$23,009 Объем
10%
↑ 1650
$8,600 Объем
8%
↑ 1700
$9,036 Объем
3%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Results from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market.
The resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".Recent releases from Anthropic, including Claude Opus 5 and Fable 5 variants posting Elo scores around 1510–1511 on the Arena leaderboard, alongside OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 series at 1509, have anchored trader expectations for incremental gains through year-end. Progress since early 2026 has shifted toward iterative refinements, “thinking” modes, and increased voting volume rather than large capability jumps, keeping thresholds like 1520 or 1530 contested but plausible within the remaining months. Competitive pressure among Anthropic, OpenAI, Google, and xAI, plus potential new model drops or fine-tunes ahead of major conferences, drives the market-implied odds. Traders monitor announcement cadence closely, as even modest single-digit Elo lifts from established leaders could resolve higher-score outcomes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Results from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market.
The resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
Results from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market.
The resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
Открытие рынка: Jul 23, 2026, 5:38 PM ET
Объем
$142,549Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jul 23, 2026, 5:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Results from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market.
The resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".Recent releases from Anthropic, including Claude Opus 5 and Fable 5 variants posting Elo scores around 1510–1511 on the Arena leaderboard, alongside OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 series at 1509, have anchored trader expectations for incremental gains through year-end. Progress since early 2026 has shifted toward iterative refinements, “thinking” modes, and increased voting volume rather than large capability jumps, keeping thresholds like 1520 or 1530 contested but plausible within the remaining months. Competitive pressure among Anthropic, OpenAI, Google, and xAI, plus potential new model drops or fine-tunes ahead of major conferences, drives the market-implied odds. Traders monitor announcement cadence closely, as even modest single-digit Elo lifts from established leaders could resolve higher-score outcomes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Results from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market.
The resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
Results from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market.
The resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
Объем
$142,549Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jul 23, 2026, 5:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent releases from Anthropic, including Claude Opus 5 and Fable 5 variants posting Elo scores around 1510–1511 on the Arena leaderboard, alongside OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 series at 1509, have anchored trader expectations for incremental gains through year-end. Progress since early 2026 has shifted toward iterative refinements, “thinking” modes, and increased voting volume rather than large capability jumps, keeping thresholds like 1520 or 1530 contested but plausible within the remaining months. Competitive pressure among Anthropic, OpenAI, Google, and xAI, plus potential new model drops or fine-tunes ahead of major conferences, drives the market-implied odds. Traders monitor announcement cadence closely, as even modest single-digit Elo lifts from established leaders could resolve higher-score outcomes.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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