Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5 and Opus 4-series variants currently anchor the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard near 1506–1510 Elo as of mid-June 2026, giving traders near-certain conviction that the 1500 Overall Arena threshold will be cleared by year-end. Steady gains from continued fine-tuning, expanded voting volume, and iterative releases across Anthropic, OpenAI, and Google have produced only modest score increases since early 2026, keeping the 1550 band at roughly 20–25% implied probability. Key catalysts ahead include anticipated second-half frontier drops and any reasoning or multi-turn improvements that could accelerate Elo movement. Resolution depends strictly on the public text leaderboard at December 31.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено$101,073 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
↑ 1550
27%
↑ 1600
13%
↑ 1650
10%
↑ 1700
9%
$101,073 Объем
↑ 1550
$34,091 Объем
27%
↑ 1600
$20,526 Объем
13%
↑ 1650
$7,603 Объем
10%
↑ 1700
$5,097 Объем
9%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Results from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market.
The resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5 and Opus 4-series variants currently anchor the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard near 1506–1510 Elo as of mid-June 2026, giving traders near-certain conviction that the 1500 Overall Arena threshold will be cleared by year-end. Steady gains from continued fine-tuning, expanded voting volume, and iterative releases across Anthropic, OpenAI, and Google have produced only modest score increases since early 2026, keeping the 1550 band at roughly 20–25% implied probability. Key catalysts ahead include anticipated second-half frontier drops and any reasoning or multi-turn improvements that could accelerate Elo movement. Resolution depends strictly on the public text leaderboard at December 31.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Results from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market.
The resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
Results from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market.
The resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
Открытие рынка: Jan 2, 2026, 1:29 PM ET
Объем
$101,073Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 2, 2026, 1:29 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Results from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market.
The resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5 and Opus 4-series variants currently anchor the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard near 1506–1510 Elo as of mid-June 2026, giving traders near-certain conviction that the 1500 Overall Arena threshold will be cleared by year-end. Steady gains from continued fine-tuning, expanded voting volume, and iterative releases across Anthropic, OpenAI, and Google have produced only modest score increases since early 2026, keeping the 1550 band at roughly 20–25% implied probability. Key catalysts ahead include anticipated second-half frontier drops and any reasoning or multi-turn improvements that could accelerate Elo movement. Resolution depends strictly on the public text leaderboard at December 31.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Results from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market.
The resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
Results from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market.
The resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
Объем
$101,073Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 2, 2026, 1:29 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5 and Opus 4-series variants currently anchor the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard near 1506–1510 Elo as of mid-June 2026, giving traders near-certain conviction that the 1500 Overall Arena threshold will be cleared by year-end. Steady gains from continued fine-tuning, expanded voting volume, and iterative releases across Anthropic, OpenAI, and Google have produced only modest score increases since early 2026, keeping the 1550 band at roughly 20–25% implied probability. Key catalysts ahead include anticipated second-half frontier drops and any reasoning or multi-turn improvements that could accelerate Elo movement. Resolution depends strictly on the public text leaderboard at December 31.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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