Anthropic's Claude Fable 5 and Opus 5 currently lead the LMArena leaderboard with Elo scores around 1510, followed closely by OpenAI's GPT-5.6 variants and xAI's Grok-4.6, reflecting tight frontier competition driven by incremental capability gains in reasoning and multimodal tasks. Trader sentiment for a high Overall Arena Score threshold by December 31 hinges on whether labs can deliver another major model cycle before year-end, as historical jumps have averaged 20-50 points per release amid converging performance across closed models. Key catalysts include upcoming developer conferences, potential GPT-5.5 or Claude 6 announcements, and benchmark updates that could shift human preference votes. The market-implied odds capture real-capital consensus on these timelines while acknowledging risks like delays or saturation in crowd-sourced evaluations.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоДостигнет ли какая-либо модель ИИ ___ Общего балла арены к 31 декабря?
Достигнет ли какая-либо модель ИИ ___ Общего балла арены к 31 декабря?
$143,662 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
↑ 1520
63%
↑ 1530
27%
↑ 1540
17%
↑ 1550
11%
↑ 1600
10%
↑ 1650
8%
↑ 1700
3%
$143,662 Объем
↑ 1520
$8,446 Объем
63%
↑ 1530
$7,605 Объем
27%
↑ 1540
$1,337 Объем
17%
↑ 1550
$48,971 Объем
11%
↑ 1600
$23,009 Объем
10%
↑ 1650
$8,600 Объем
8%
↑ 1700
$9,036 Объем
3%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Results from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market.
The resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".Anthropic's Claude Fable 5 and Opus 5 currently lead the LMArena leaderboard with Elo scores around 1510, followed closely by OpenAI's GPT-5.6 variants and xAI's Grok-4.6, reflecting tight frontier competition driven by incremental capability gains in reasoning and multimodal tasks. Trader sentiment for a high Overall Arena Score threshold by December 31 hinges on whether labs can deliver another major model cycle before year-end, as historical jumps have averaged 20-50 points per release amid converging performance across closed models. Key catalysts include upcoming developer conferences, potential GPT-5.5 or Claude 6 announcements, and benchmark updates that could shift human preference votes. The market-implied odds capture real-capital consensus on these timelines while acknowledging risks like delays or saturation in crowd-sourced evaluations.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Results from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market.
The resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
Results from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market.
The resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
Открытие рынка: Jul 23, 2026, 5:38 PM ET
Объем
$143,662Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jul 23, 2026, 5:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Results from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market.
The resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".Anthropic's Claude Fable 5 and Opus 5 currently lead the LMArena leaderboard with Elo scores around 1510, followed closely by OpenAI's GPT-5.6 variants and xAI's Grok-4.6, reflecting tight frontier competition driven by incremental capability gains in reasoning and multimodal tasks. Trader sentiment for a high Overall Arena Score threshold by December 31 hinges on whether labs can deliver another major model cycle before year-end, as historical jumps have averaged 20-50 points per release amid converging performance across closed models. Key catalysts include upcoming developer conferences, potential GPT-5.5 or Claude 6 announcements, and benchmark updates that could shift human preference votes. The market-implied odds capture real-capital consensus on these timelines while acknowledging risks like delays or saturation in crowd-sourced evaluations.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Results from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market.
The resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
Results from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market.
The resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
Объем
$143,662Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jul 23, 2026, 5:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Anthropic's Claude Fable 5 and Opus 5 currently lead the LMArena leaderboard with Elo scores around 1510, followed closely by OpenAI's GPT-5.6 variants and xAI's Grok-4.6, reflecting tight frontier competition driven by incremental capability gains in reasoning and multimodal tasks. Trader sentiment for a high Overall Arena Score threshold by December 31 hinges on whether labs can deliver another major model cycle before year-end, as historical jumps have averaged 20-50 points per release amid converging performance across closed models. Key catalysts include upcoming developer conferences, potential GPT-5.5 or Claude 6 announcements, and benchmark updates that could shift human preference votes. The market-implied odds capture real-capital consensus on these timelines while acknowledging risks like delays or saturation in crowd-sourced evaluations.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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