China maintains steady gray-zone pressure on Taiwan through daily air and maritime patrols, coast guard incursions east of the island, and reconnaissance flights monitoring Taiwanese drills, yet has reduced aerial ADIZ crossings in 2026 relative to prior peaks. Beijing prioritizes blockade and quarantine preparations over amphibious assault, while multiple U.S.-China leader summits in 2026 have correlated with lower sortie rates and opened diplomatic channels. Taipei has responded with expanded defense budgets, drone integration, and live-fire exercises emphasizing rapid response, reinforcing deterrence without triggering escalation. These patterns of calibrated coercion, capability constraints, and ongoing high-level engagement underpin trader consensus against a major military clash before 2027.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоДа
5% вероятность
$3,426,207 Объем
$3,426,207 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
Да
5% вероятность
$3,426,207 Объем
$3,426,207 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.China maintains steady gray-zone pressure on Taiwan through daily air and maritime patrols, coast guard incursions east of the island, and reconnaissance flights monitoring Taiwanese drills, yet has reduced aerial ADIZ crossings in 2026 relative to prior peaks. Beijing prioritizes blockade and quarantine preparations over amphibious assault, while multiple U.S.-China leader summits in 2026 have correlated with lower sortie rates and opened diplomatic channels. Taipei has responded with expanded defense budgets, drone integration, and live-fire exercises emphasizing rapid response, reinforcing deterrence without triggering escalation. These patterns of calibrated coercion, capability constraints, and ongoing high-level engagement underpin trader consensus against a major military clash before 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: Nov 13, 2025, 5:55 PM ET
Объем
$3,426,207Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Nov 13, 2025, 5:55 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.China maintains steady gray-zone pressure on Taiwan through daily air and maritime patrols, coast guard incursions east of the island, and reconnaissance flights monitoring Taiwanese drills, yet has reduced aerial ADIZ crossings in 2026 relative to prior peaks. Beijing prioritizes blockade and quarantine preparations over amphibious assault, while multiple U.S.-China leader summits in 2026 have correlated with lower sortie rates and opened diplomatic channels. Taipei has responded with expanded defense budgets, drone integration, and live-fire exercises emphasizing rapid response, reinforcing deterrence without triggering escalation. These patterns of calibrated coercion, capability constraints, and ongoing high-level engagement underpin trader consensus against a major military clash before 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$3,426,207Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Nov 13, 2025, 5:55 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...China maintains steady gray-zone pressure on Taiwan through daily air and maritime patrols, coast guard incursions east of the island, and reconnaissance flights monitoring Taiwanese drills, yet has reduced aerial ADIZ crossings in 2026 relative to prior peaks. Beijing prioritizes blockade and quarantine preparations over amphibious assault, while multiple U.S.-China leader summits in 2026 have correlated with lower sortie rates and opened diplomatic channels. Taipei has responded with expanded defense budgets, drone integration, and live-fire exercises emphasizing rapid response, reinforcing deterrence without triggering escalation. These patterns of calibrated coercion, capability constraints, and ongoing high-level engagement underpin trader consensus against a major military clash before 2027.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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