Traders assign a 92.9% probability to no direct military clash between Chinese and Taiwanese forces before the end of 2026 due to U.S. intelligence assessments that Beijing lacks a fixed timeline or current plan for invasion, alongside a preference for gray-zone coercion and economic integration over kinetic action. Recent developments include Taiwan’s August 2026 Han Kuang exercises testing reservist mobilization and supply resilience, paired with Chinese live-fire drills and blockade simulations that signal pressure without crossing into direct engagement. Diplomatic contacts, such as the Kuomintang chair’s April 2026 meeting with Xi Jinping emphasizing peace and prosperity, and U.S.-China summit discussions on Taiwan as a sensitive but manageable issue, further support continuity of the status quo. The brief remaining window to December 31, 2026, reinforces the market’s view that escalation thresholds remain high absent unforeseen triggers.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоДа
7% вероятность
$3,214,189 Объем
$3,214,189 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
Да
7% вероятность
$3,214,189 Объем
$3,214,189 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Traders assign a 92.9% probability to no direct military clash between Chinese and Taiwanese forces before the end of 2026 due to U.S. intelligence assessments that Beijing lacks a fixed timeline or current plan for invasion, alongside a preference for gray-zone coercion and economic integration over kinetic action. Recent developments include Taiwan’s August 2026 Han Kuang exercises testing reservist mobilization and supply resilience, paired with Chinese live-fire drills and blockade simulations that signal pressure without crossing into direct engagement. Diplomatic contacts, such as the Kuomintang chair’s April 2026 meeting with Xi Jinping emphasizing peace and prosperity, and U.S.-China summit discussions on Taiwan as a sensitive but manageable issue, further support continuity of the status quo. The brief remaining window to December 31, 2026, reinforces the market’s view that escalation thresholds remain high absent unforeseen triggers.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: Nov 13, 2025, 5:55 PM ET
Объем
$3,214,189Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Nov 13, 2025, 5:55 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Traders assign a 92.9% probability to no direct military clash between Chinese and Taiwanese forces before the end of 2026 due to U.S. intelligence assessments that Beijing lacks a fixed timeline or current plan for invasion, alongside a preference for gray-zone coercion and economic integration over kinetic action. Recent developments include Taiwan’s August 2026 Han Kuang exercises testing reservist mobilization and supply resilience, paired with Chinese live-fire drills and blockade simulations that signal pressure without crossing into direct engagement. Diplomatic contacts, such as the Kuomintang chair’s April 2026 meeting with Xi Jinping emphasizing peace and prosperity, and U.S.-China summit discussions on Taiwan as a sensitive but manageable issue, further support continuity of the status quo. The brief remaining window to December 31, 2026, reinforces the market’s view that escalation thresholds remain high absent unforeseen triggers.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$3,214,189Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Nov 13, 2025, 5:55 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders assign a 92.9% probability to no direct military clash between Chinese and Taiwanese forces before the end of 2026 due to U.S. intelligence assessments that Beijing lacks a fixed timeline or current plan for invasion, alongside a preference for gray-zone coercion and economic integration over kinetic action. Recent developments include Taiwan’s August 2026 Han Kuang exercises testing reservist mobilization and supply resilience, paired with Chinese live-fire drills and blockade simulations that signal pressure without crossing into direct engagement. Diplomatic contacts, such as the Kuomintang chair’s April 2026 meeting with Xi Jinping emphasizing peace and prosperity, and U.S.-China summit discussions on Taiwan as a sensitive but manageable issue, further support continuity of the status quo. The brief remaining window to December 31, 2026, reinforces the market’s view that escalation thresholds remain high absent unforeseen triggers.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
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