US intelligence assessments, including the ODNI’s March 2026 Annual Threat Assessment, conclude that Chinese leaders lack a fixed timeline for unification and do not currently plan an invasion of Taiwan in 2027, favoring continued coercive measures such as military exercises, air and maritime incursions, and economic pressure short of conflict. This view aligns with reduced PLA activity levels in early 2026 and the absence of visible large-scale amphibious or logistics preparations required for a major offensive. Taiwan’s ongoing defense reforms and drills, alongside regional diplomatic signaling, further reinforce trader consensus that the prohibitive military, economic, and escalation risks deter near-term action, anchoring the 91.5% implied probability against an invasion by the June 2027 resolution date.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоВторгнется ли Китай на Тайвань к 30 июня 2027 года?
Вторгнется ли Китай на Тайвань к 30 июня 2027 года?
Да
9% вероятность
$419,407 Объем
$419,407 Объем
30 июн. 2027 г.
Да
9% вероятность
$419,407 Объем
$419,407 Объем
30 июн. 2027 г.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.US intelligence assessments, including the ODNI’s March 2026 Annual Threat Assessment, conclude that Chinese leaders lack a fixed timeline for unification and do not currently plan an invasion of Taiwan in 2027, favoring continued coercive measures such as military exercises, air and maritime incursions, and economic pressure short of conflict. This view aligns with reduced PLA activity levels in early 2026 and the absence of visible large-scale amphibious or logistics preparations required for a major offensive. Taiwan’s ongoing defense reforms and drills, alongside regional diplomatic signaling, further reinforce trader consensus that the prohibitive military, economic, and escalation risks deter near-term action, anchoring the 91.5% implied probability against an invasion by the June 2027 resolution date.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Открытие рынка: Apr 1, 2026, 12:17 PM ET
Объем
$419,407Дата окончания
30 июн. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Apr 1, 2026, 12:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.US intelligence assessments, including the ODNI’s March 2026 Annual Threat Assessment, conclude that Chinese leaders lack a fixed timeline for unification and do not currently plan an invasion of Taiwan in 2027, favoring continued coercive measures such as military exercises, air and maritime incursions, and economic pressure short of conflict. This view aligns with reduced PLA activity levels in early 2026 and the absence of visible large-scale amphibious or logistics preparations required for a major offensive. Taiwan’s ongoing defense reforms and drills, alongside regional diplomatic signaling, further reinforce trader consensus that the prohibitive military, economic, and escalation risks deter near-term action, anchoring the 91.5% implied probability against an invasion by the June 2027 resolution date.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Объем
$419,407Дата окончания
30 июн. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Apr 1, 2026, 12:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US intelligence assessments, including the ODNI’s March 2026 Annual Threat Assessment, conclude that Chinese leaders lack a fixed timeline for unification and do not currently plan an invasion of Taiwan in 2027, favoring continued coercive measures such as military exercises, air and maritime incursions, and economic pressure short of conflict. This view aligns with reduced PLA activity levels in early 2026 and the absence of visible large-scale amphibious or logistics preparations required for a major offensive. Taiwan’s ongoing defense reforms and drills, alongside regional diplomatic signaling, further reinforce trader consensus that the prohibitive military, economic, and escalation risks deter near-term action, anchoring the 91.5% implied probability against an invasion by the June 2027 resolution date.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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