U.S. intelligence agencies' March 2026 Annual Threat Assessment, stating China lacks plans for a Taiwan invasion by 2027 and no fixed unification timeline, anchors trader consensus at 85.5% for "No," reflecting high perceived costs of military action amid economic pressures and U.S. deterrence. Recent Trump-Xi summit talks in Beijing on May 14 highlighted Taiwan tensions but yielded trade promises without escalation signals, while routine People's Liberation Army drills and China Coast Guard incursions near Kinmen persist without invasion-scale mobilization. Taiwan President Lai Ching-te's May speeches drew Beijing warnings of "separatist" risks, yet diplomatic posturing dominates over kinetic moves, underscoring traders' view of sustained gray-zone pressure over outright conflict before June 2027.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоВторгнется ли Китай на Тайвань к 30 июня 2027 года?
Вторгнется ли Китай на Тайвань к 30 июня 2027 года?
Да
$185,911 Объем
$185,911 Объем
30 июн. 2027 г.
Да
$185,911 Объем
$185,911 Объем
30 июн. 2027 г.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.U.S. intelligence agencies' March 2026 Annual Threat Assessment, stating China lacks plans for a Taiwan invasion by 2027 and no fixed unification timeline, anchors trader consensus at 85.5% for "No," reflecting high perceived costs of military action amid economic pressures and U.S. deterrence. Recent Trump-Xi summit talks in Beijing on May 14 highlighted Taiwan tensions but yielded trade promises without escalation signals, while routine People's Liberation Army drills and China Coast Guard incursions near Kinmen persist without invasion-scale mobilization. Taiwan President Lai Ching-te's May speeches drew Beijing warnings of "separatist" risks, yet diplomatic posturing dominates over kinetic moves, underscoring traders' view of sustained gray-zone pressure over outright conflict before June 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Открытие рынка: Apr 1, 2026, 12:17 PM ET
Объем
$185,911Дата окончания
30 июн. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Apr 1, 2026, 12:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.U.S. intelligence agencies' March 2026 Annual Threat Assessment, stating China lacks plans for a Taiwan invasion by 2027 and no fixed unification timeline, anchors trader consensus at 85.5% for "No," reflecting high perceived costs of military action amid economic pressures and U.S. deterrence. Recent Trump-Xi summit talks in Beijing on May 14 highlighted Taiwan tensions but yielded trade promises without escalation signals, while routine People's Liberation Army drills and China Coast Guard incursions near Kinmen persist without invasion-scale mobilization. Taiwan President Lai Ching-te's May speeches drew Beijing warnings of "separatist" risks, yet diplomatic posturing dominates over kinetic moves, underscoring traders' view of sustained gray-zone pressure over outright conflict before June 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Объем
$187,892Дата окончания
30 июн. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Apr 1, 2026, 12:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...U.S. intelligence agencies' March 2026 Annual Threat Assessment, stating China lacks plans for a Taiwan invasion by 2027 and no fixed unification timeline, anchors trader consensus at 85.5% for "No," reflecting high perceived costs of military action amid economic pressures and U.S. deterrence. Recent Trump-Xi summit talks in Beijing on May 14 highlighted Taiwan tensions but yielded trade promises without escalation signals, while routine People's Liberation Army drills and China Coast Guard incursions near Kinmen persist without invasion-scale mobilization. Taiwan President Lai Ching-te's May speeches drew Beijing warnings of "separatist" risks, yet diplomatic posturing dominates over kinetic moves, underscoring traders' view of sustained gray-zone pressure over outright conflict before June 2027.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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