Traders assign China just an 8.5% chance of invading Taiwan by June 30, 2027, reflecting sustained low visible preparations for a cross-strait amphibious campaign. Recent months show continued but reduced PLA aerial incursions into Taiwan’s ADIZ, routine China Coast Guard patrols, and standard live-fire drills in the Strait without accompanying logistics surges or reserve mobilizations. Taiwan’s August 2026 Han Kuang exercises tested large-scale reservist call-ups and supply relocation under simulated attack, underscoring defensive readiness. U.S. arms sales and diplomatic signaling, alongside China’s reported military leadership adjustments, have reinforced deterrence without triggering escalation. While gray-zone pressure persists and any major Taiwanese or U.S. policy shift could alter calculations, the absence of invasion indicators keeps the trader consensus firmly on the “no” side.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоВторгнется ли Китай на Тайвань к 30 июня 2027 года?
Вторгнется ли Китай на Тайвань к 30 июня 2027 года?
Да
9% вероятность
$419,407 Объем
$419,407 Объем
30 июн. 2027 г.
Да
9% вероятность
$419,407 Объем
$419,407 Объем
30 июн. 2027 г.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Traders assign China just an 8.5% chance of invading Taiwan by June 30, 2027, reflecting sustained low visible preparations for a cross-strait amphibious campaign. Recent months show continued but reduced PLA aerial incursions into Taiwan’s ADIZ, routine China Coast Guard patrols, and standard live-fire drills in the Strait without accompanying logistics surges or reserve mobilizations. Taiwan’s August 2026 Han Kuang exercises tested large-scale reservist call-ups and supply relocation under simulated attack, underscoring defensive readiness. U.S. arms sales and diplomatic signaling, alongside China’s reported military leadership adjustments, have reinforced deterrence without triggering escalation. While gray-zone pressure persists and any major Taiwanese or U.S. policy shift could alter calculations, the absence of invasion indicators keeps the trader consensus firmly on the “no” side.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Открытие рынка: Apr 1, 2026, 12:17 PM ET
Объем
$419,407Дата окончания
30 июн. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Apr 1, 2026, 12:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Traders assign China just an 8.5% chance of invading Taiwan by June 30, 2027, reflecting sustained low visible preparations for a cross-strait amphibious campaign. Recent months show continued but reduced PLA aerial incursions into Taiwan’s ADIZ, routine China Coast Guard patrols, and standard live-fire drills in the Strait without accompanying logistics surges or reserve mobilizations. Taiwan’s August 2026 Han Kuang exercises tested large-scale reservist call-ups and supply relocation under simulated attack, underscoring defensive readiness. U.S. arms sales and diplomatic signaling, alongside China’s reported military leadership adjustments, have reinforced deterrence without triggering escalation. While gray-zone pressure persists and any major Taiwanese or U.S. policy shift could alter calculations, the absence of invasion indicators keeps the trader consensus firmly on the “no” side.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Объем
$419,407Дата окончания
30 июн. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Apr 1, 2026, 12:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders assign China just an 8.5% chance of invading Taiwan by June 30, 2027, reflecting sustained low visible preparations for a cross-strait amphibious campaign. Recent months show continued but reduced PLA aerial incursions into Taiwan’s ADIZ, routine China Coast Guard patrols, and standard live-fire drills in the Strait without accompanying logistics surges or reserve mobilizations. Taiwan’s August 2026 Han Kuang exercises tested large-scale reservist call-ups and supply relocation under simulated attack, underscoring defensive readiness. U.S. arms sales and diplomatic signaling, alongside China’s reported military leadership adjustments, have reinforced deterrence without triggering escalation. While gray-zone pressure persists and any major Taiwanese or U.S. policy shift could alter calculations, the absence of invasion indicators keeps the trader consensus firmly on the “no” side.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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