Traders assign a 96.3% implied probability that China will not launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2026, reflecting assessments that the People’s Liberation Army remains unprepared for a complex amphibious operation amid recent high-level purges and capability gaps exposed in training. Taiwan’s ongoing Han Kuang exercises, including expanded reservist mobilization, drone navigation systems resilient to jamming, coast guard missile integration, and civil defense drills simulating blockades, underscore strengthened asymmetric defenses. Beijing’s July live-fire drills and maritime patrols represent continued gray-zone pressure rather than imminent escalation, consistent with intelligence assessments favoring unification without force in the near term. High economic costs, supply-chain disruption risks, and limited remaining timeline reinforce the consensus, though accidental clashes during exercises or sudden shifts in U.S. or Taiwanese policy could still alter trajectories.