Trader consensus reflects low invasion risk through 2026, driven by recent U.S. intelligence assessments like the ODNI's March 2026 report stating China likely will not attempt a Taiwan takeover by 2027 due to prohibitive economic and military costs. Ongoing Trump-Xi summit talks in Beijing (May 13-15), focusing on trade truces and the Iran war, featured Xi's standard warnings against U.S. arms sales to Taiwan and "separatist" rhetoric toward President Lai Ching-te, yet produced no escalation signals amid routine PLA activities around the Taiwan Strait. Taiwan's unveiling of missile-capable coast guard vessels on May 15 and U.S. pressure for higher defense spending further bolster deterrence, with no major drills or blockades since late 2025, underscoring diplomatic stasis over imminent conflict.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоВторгнется ли Китай на Тайвань к концу 2026 года?
Вторгнется ли Китай на Тайвань к концу 2026 года?
Да
$23,356,221 Объем
$23,356,221 Объем
Да
$23,356,221 Объем
$23,356,221 Объем
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Открытие рынка: Jul 24, 2025, 7:37 PM ET
Кто определяет исход
0x157Ce2d67...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Кто определяет исход
0x157Ce2d67...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Trader consensus reflects low invasion risk through 2026, driven by recent U.S. intelligence assessments like the ODNI's March 2026 report stating China likely will not attempt a Taiwan takeover by 2027 due to prohibitive economic and military costs. Ongoing Trump-Xi summit talks in Beijing (May 13-15), focusing on trade truces and the Iran war, featured Xi's standard warnings against U.S. arms sales to Taiwan and "separatist" rhetoric toward President Lai Ching-te, yet produced no escalation signals amid routine PLA activities around the Taiwan Strait. Taiwan's unveiling of missile-capable coast guard vessels on May 15 and U.S. pressure for higher defense spending further bolster deterrence, with no major drills or blockades since late 2025, underscoring diplomatic stasis over imminent conflict.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
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