US intelligence assessments, including the March 2026 Annual Threat Assessment, state that Chinese leaders have no current plan or fixed timeline for invading Taiwan in 2027, favoring coercive measures short of war such as maritime drills, economic pressure, and diplomatic signaling. As of August 2026, observable indicators of large-scale amphibious mobilization remain absent, while Taiwan continues routine Han Kuang exercises testing reservist mobilization, supply chain resilience, and asymmetric capabilities. Regional reporting highlights persistent PLA readiness gaps, high operational risks, and potential third-party intervention costs that reinforce Beijing’s preference for non-kinetic unification paths ahead of Taiwan’s 2028 elections. Trader consensus at 87.5% against an invasion by end-2027 reflects these structural and timing barriers.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоДа
$2,704,239 Объем
$2,704,239 Объем
Да
$2,704,239 Объем
$2,704,239 Объем
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Открытие рынка: Mar 17, 2026, 7:29 PM ET
Кто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Кто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
US intelligence assessments, including the March 2026 Annual Threat Assessment, state that Chinese leaders have no current plan or fixed timeline for invading Taiwan in 2027, favoring coercive measures short of war such as maritime drills, economic pressure, and diplomatic signaling. As of August 2026, observable indicators of large-scale amphibious mobilization remain absent, while Taiwan continues routine Han Kuang exercises testing reservist mobilization, supply chain resilience, and asymmetric capabilities. Regional reporting highlights persistent PLA readiness gaps, high operational risks, and potential third-party intervention costs that reinforce Beijing’s preference for non-kinetic unification paths ahead of Taiwan’s 2028 elections. Trader consensus at 87.5% against an invasion by end-2027 reflects these structural and timing barriers.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Часто задаваемые вопросы