Trader consensus implies a 91.5% probability of no military clash between China and Japan before 2027, driven by persistent gray-zone tactics without kinetic escalation despite heightened rhetoric. Japan's April warship transit through the Taiwan Strait, labeled a "deliberate provocation" by Beijing, triggered Chinese joint combat readiness patrols in the East China Sea and strong diplomatic protests, but both militaries have maintained restraint. Recent developments include Japan's first post-World War II overseas offensive missile launch, prompting Chinese warnings of resurgent militarism, and a May 12 Japanese Air Self-Defense Force scramble against a suspected Chinese airspace intrusion near southwestern Japan. Record Chinese coast guard incursions near the Senkaku Islands continue, yet mutual de-escalation signals, U.S.-Japan alliance deterrence, and economic ties keep odds low barring a Taiwan contingency or landing attempt.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоДа
$706,879 Объем
$706,879 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
Да
$706,879 Объем
$706,879 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Japan between November 17, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Japanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Japan Coast Guard (JCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus implies a 91.5% probability of no military clash between China and Japan before 2027, driven by persistent gray-zone tactics without kinetic escalation despite heightened rhetoric. Japan's April warship transit through the Taiwan Strait, labeled a "deliberate provocation" by Beijing, triggered Chinese joint combat readiness patrols in the East China Sea and strong diplomatic protests, but both militaries have maintained restraint. Recent developments include Japan's first post-World War II overseas offensive missile launch, prompting Chinese warnings of resurgent militarism, and a May 12 Japanese Air Self-Defense Force scramble against a suspected Chinese airspace intrusion near southwestern Japan. Record Chinese coast guard incursions near the Senkaku Islands continue, yet mutual de-escalation signals, U.S.-Japan alliance deterrence, and economic ties keep odds low barring a Taiwan contingency or landing attempt.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Japan between November 17, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Japanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Japan Coast Guard (JCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Japanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Japan Coast Guard (JCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: Nov 18, 2025, 10:43 AM ET
Объем
$706,879Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Nov 18, 2025, 10:43 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Japan between November 17, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Japanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Japan Coast Guard (JCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus implies a 91.5% probability of no military clash between China and Japan before 2027, driven by persistent gray-zone tactics without kinetic escalation despite heightened rhetoric. Japan's April warship transit through the Taiwan Strait, labeled a "deliberate provocation" by Beijing, triggered Chinese joint combat readiness patrols in the East China Sea and strong diplomatic protests, but both militaries have maintained restraint. Recent developments include Japan's first post-World War II overseas offensive missile launch, prompting Chinese warnings of resurgent militarism, and a May 12 Japanese Air Self-Defense Force scramble against a suspected Chinese airspace intrusion near southwestern Japan. Record Chinese coast guard incursions near the Senkaku Islands continue, yet mutual de-escalation signals, U.S.-Japan alliance deterrence, and economic ties keep odds low barring a Taiwan contingency or landing attempt.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Japan between November 17, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Japanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Japan Coast Guard (JCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Japanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Japan Coast Guard (JCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$707,577Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Nov 18, 2025, 10:43 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus implies a 91.5% probability of no military clash between China and Japan before 2027, driven by persistent gray-zone tactics without kinetic escalation despite heightened rhetoric. Japan's April warship transit through the Taiwan Strait, labeled a "deliberate provocation" by Beijing, triggered Chinese joint combat readiness patrols in the East China Sea and strong diplomatic protests, but both militaries have maintained restraint. Recent developments include Japan's first post-World War II overseas offensive missile launch, prompting Chinese warnings of resurgent militarism, and a May 12 Japanese Air Self-Defense Force scramble against a suspected Chinese airspace intrusion near southwestern Japan. Record Chinese coast guard incursions near the Senkaku Islands continue, yet mutual de-escalation signals, U.S.-Japan alliance deterrence, and economic ties keep odds low barring a Taiwan contingency or landing attempt.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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