China's official 4.5–5 percent GDP growth target for 2026, paired with a first-quarter expansion of 5 percent that exceeded expectations, has concentrated trader consensus on the 4.0–5.0 percent range. Strong industrial output and export momentum have offset persistent weakness in domestic consumption and the property sector, while front-loaded fiscal support has supported early-year momentum. Analyst forecasts cluster around 4.7–4.8 percent, reflecting these factors alongside risks from elevated energy prices tied to geopolitical developments and potential softening in global demand later in the year.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено4,0–5,0% 73%
5,0–6,0% 23.8%
6,0–7,0% 2.6%
3,0–4,0% 1.5%
$527,845 Объем
$527,845 Объем
31 янв. 2026 г.
<1,0%
<1%
1,0–2,0%
<1%
2,0–3,0%
<1%
3,0–4,0%
2%
4,0–5,0%
73%
5,0–6,0%
24%
6,0–7,0%
3%
7,0–8,0%
<1%
8,0–9,0%
<1%
9,0%+
<1%
4,0–5,0% 73%
5,0–6,0% 23.8%
6,0–7,0% 2.6%
3,0–4,0% 1.5%
$527,845 Объем
$527,845 Объем
31 янв. 2026 г.
<1,0%
$41,430 Объем
<1%
1,0–2,0%
$40,608 Объем
<1%
2,0–3,0%
$21,014 Объем
<1%
3,0–4,0%
$43,445 Объем
2%
4,0–5,0%
$135,981 Объем
73%
5,0–6,0%
$49,129 Объем
24%
6,0–7,0%
$48,008 Объем
3%
7,0–8,0%
$44,478 Объем
<1%
8,0–9,0%
$20,196 Объем
<1%
9,0%+
$83,556 Объем
<1%
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.China's official 4.5–5 percent GDP growth target for 2026, paired with a first-quarter expansion of 5 percent that exceeded expectations, has concentrated trader consensus on the 4.0–5.0 percent range. Strong industrial output and export momentum have offset persistent weakness in domestic consumption and the property sector, while front-loaded fiscal support has supported early-year momentum. Analyst forecasts cluster around 4.7–4.8 percent, reflecting these factors alongside risks from elevated energy prices tied to geopolitical developments and potential softening in global demand later in the year.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: Jan 21, 2026, 6:18 PM ET
Объем
$527,845Дата окончания
31 янв. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 21, 2026, 6:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.China's official 4.5–5 percent GDP growth target for 2026, paired with a first-quarter expansion of 5 percent that exceeded expectations, has concentrated trader consensus on the 4.0–5.0 percent range. Strong industrial output and export momentum have offset persistent weakness in domestic consumption and the property sector, while front-loaded fiscal support has supported early-year momentum. Analyst forecasts cluster around 4.7–4.8 percent, reflecting these factors alongside risks from elevated energy prices tied to geopolitical developments and potential softening in global demand later in the year.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Объем
$527,845Дата окончания
31 янв. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 21, 2026, 6:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...China's official 4.5–5 percent GDP growth target for 2026, paired with a first-quarter expansion of 5 percent that exceeded expectations, has concentrated trader consensus on the 4.0–5.0 percent range. Strong industrial output and export momentum have offset persistent weakness in domestic consumption and the property sector, while front-loaded fiscal support has supported early-year momentum. Analyst forecasts cluster around 4.7–4.8 percent, reflecting these factors alongside risks from elevated energy prices tied to geopolitical developments and potential softening in global demand later in the year.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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