China's official 2026 growth target of 4.5–5% and consensus forecasts from the IMF (4.4%), OECD (4.5%), ADB (4.6%), and others cluster tightly in the 4–5% range, aligning with the market's dominant 4.0–5.0% outcome. First-half 2026 data showed 4.7% expansion, supported by manufacturing, exports, and infrastructure investment amid state-led fixed-asset spending, though consumption and the property sector remain soft. Beijing's fiscal measures, including special bonds and targeted infrastructure outlays, aim to sustain momentum without aggressive stimulus. Persistent weak domestic demand and external uncertainties limit upside risks, while structural headwinds make outcomes above 5% or below 4% appear less probable to traders assessing full-year results.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено4,0–5,0% 89%
5,0–6,0% 10.7%
3,0–4,0% 1.1%
8,0–9,0% 1.1%
$876,819 Объем
$876,819 Объем
31 янв. 2026 г.
<1,0%
<1%
1,0–2,0%
<1%
2,0–3,0%
<1%
3,0–4,0%
1%
4,0–5,0%
89%
5,0–6,0%
11%
6,0–7,0%
<1%
7,0–8,0%
<1%
8,0–9,0%
1%
9,0%+
<1%
4,0–5,0% 89%
5,0–6,0% 10.7%
3,0–4,0% 1.1%
8,0–9,0% 1.1%
$876,819 Объем
$876,819 Объем
31 янв. 2026 г.
<1,0%
$64,833 Объем
<1%
1,0–2,0%
$74,124 Объем
<1%
2,0–3,0%
$44,776 Объем
<1%
3,0–4,0%
$80,220 Объем
1%
4,0–5,0%
$219,722 Объем
89%
5,0–6,0%
$78,494 Объем
11%
6,0–7,0%
$83,563 Объем
<1%
7,0–8,0%
$62,549 Объем
<1%
8,0–9,0%
$53,031 Объем
1%
9,0%+
$115,508 Объем
<1%
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.China's official 2026 growth target of 4.5–5% and consensus forecasts from the IMF (4.4%), OECD (4.5%), ADB (4.6%), and others cluster tightly in the 4–5% range, aligning with the market's dominant 4.0–5.0% outcome. First-half 2026 data showed 4.7% expansion, supported by manufacturing, exports, and infrastructure investment amid state-led fixed-asset spending, though consumption and the property sector remain soft. Beijing's fiscal measures, including special bonds and targeted infrastructure outlays, aim to sustain momentum without aggressive stimulus. Persistent weak domestic demand and external uncertainties limit upside risks, while structural headwinds make outcomes above 5% or below 4% appear less probable to traders assessing full-year results.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: Jan 21, 2026, 6:18 PM ET
Объем
$876,819Дата окончания
31 янв. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 21, 2026, 6:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.China's official 2026 growth target of 4.5–5% and consensus forecasts from the IMF (4.4%), OECD (4.5%), ADB (4.6%), and others cluster tightly in the 4–5% range, aligning with the market's dominant 4.0–5.0% outcome. First-half 2026 data showed 4.7% expansion, supported by manufacturing, exports, and infrastructure investment amid state-led fixed-asset spending, though consumption and the property sector remain soft. Beijing's fiscal measures, including special bonds and targeted infrastructure outlays, aim to sustain momentum without aggressive stimulus. Persistent weak domestic demand and external uncertainties limit upside risks, while structural headwinds make outcomes above 5% or below 4% appear less probable to traders assessing full-year results.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Объем
$876,819Дата окончания
31 янв. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 21, 2026, 6:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...China's official 2026 growth target of 4.5–5% and consensus forecasts from the IMF (4.4%), OECD (4.5%), ADB (4.6%), and others cluster tightly in the 4–5% range, aligning with the market's dominant 4.0–5.0% outcome. First-half 2026 data showed 4.7% expansion, supported by manufacturing, exports, and infrastructure investment amid state-led fixed-asset spending, though consumption and the property sector remain soft. Beijing's fiscal measures, including special bonds and targeted infrastructure outlays, aim to sustain momentum without aggressive stimulus. Persistent weak domestic demand and external uncertainties limit upside risks, while structural headwinds make outcomes above 5% or below 4% appear less probable to traders assessing full-year results.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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