Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 69% implied probability for Eurozone annual GDP growth of 1.0-2.0% in 2026, reflecting alignment with the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters' median projection of 1.0% released May 4, alongside similar estimates from the Conference Board and S&P Global at around 1%. This positioning stems from Eurostat's recent confirmation of Q1 2026 GDP at just 0.1% quarter-on-quarter and 0.8% year-on-year—its weakest quarterly pace since Q2 2025—amid surging energy costs from Middle East tensions and softening industrial output. Lower outcomes like 0-1.0% (27%) and contraction (<0%, 23%) capture downside risks from geopolitical shocks, while upside bins above 2% see subdued odds below 20% given structural drags. Upcoming ECB June projections and Q2 data will be key catalysts.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено1,0–2,0% 68%
0-1,0% 28.3%
3,0–4,0% 18.4%
2,0-3,0% 10%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
31 янв. 2027 г.
<0%
21%
0-1,0%
28%
1,0–2,0%
68%
2,0-3,0%
10%
3,0–4,0%
18%
4,0-5,0%
3%
5,0-6,0%
1%
6,0-7,0%
1%
7,0%+
3%
1,0–2,0% 68%
0-1,0% 28.3%
3,0–4,0% 18.4%
2,0-3,0% 10%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
31 янв. 2027 г.
<0%
$792 Объем
21%
0-1,0%
$636 Объем
28%
1,0–2,0%
$1,474 Объем
68%
2,0-3,0%
$638 Объем
10%
3,0–4,0%
$567 Объем
18%
4,0-5,0%
$1,540 Объем
3%
5,0-6,0%
$631 Объем
1%
6,0-7,0%
$1,323 Объем
1%
7,0%+
$1,110 Объем
3%
This market will resolve according to the estimation of Euro Area (Eurozone) annual GDP growth for the full year of 2026 (% change), based on seasonally and calendar adjusted quarterly data, as reported in the "GDP and employment flash estimates for the fourth quarter of 2026" flash release for Q4 of 2026, scheduled to be released in January 2027.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the Euro Area GDP growth rate for the full year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the Euro Area GDP growth rate for Q4 2026, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. If no data is released for either the full year or fourth quarter of 2026 by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 69% implied probability for Eurozone annual GDP growth of 1.0-2.0% in 2026, reflecting alignment with the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters' median projection of 1.0% released May 4, alongside similar estimates from the Conference Board and S&P Global at around 1%. This positioning stems from Eurostat's recent confirmation of Q1 2026 GDP at just 0.1% quarter-on-quarter and 0.8% year-on-year—its weakest quarterly pace since Q2 2025—amid surging energy costs from Middle East tensions and softening industrial output. Lower outcomes like 0-1.0% (27%) and contraction (<0%, 23%) capture downside risks from geopolitical shocks, while upside bins above 2% see subdued odds below 20% given structural drags. Upcoming ECB June projections and Q2 data will be key catalysts.
This market will resolve according to the estimation of Euro Area (Eurozone) annual GDP growth for the full year of 2026 (% change), based on seasonally and calendar adjusted quarterly data, as reported in the "GDP and employment flash estimates for the fourth quarter of 2026" flash release for Q4 of 2026, scheduled to be released in January 2027.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the Euro Area GDP growth rate for the full year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the Euro Area GDP growth rate for Q4 2026, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. If no data is released for either the full year or fourth quarter of 2026 by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the Euro Area GDP growth rate for the full year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the Euro Area GDP growth rate for Q4 2026, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. If no data is released for either the full year or fourth quarter of 2026 by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: Jan 21, 2026, 7:29 PM ET
Объем
$8,712Дата окончания
31 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 21, 2026, 7:29 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the estimation of Euro Area (Eurozone) annual GDP growth for the full year of 2026 (% change), based on seasonally and calendar adjusted quarterly data, as reported in the "GDP and employment flash estimates for the fourth quarter of 2026" flash release for Q4 of 2026, scheduled to be released in January 2027.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the Euro Area GDP growth rate for the full year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the Euro Area GDP growth rate for Q4 2026, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. If no data is released for either the full year or fourth quarter of 2026 by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 69% implied probability for Eurozone annual GDP growth of 1.0-2.0% in 2026, reflecting alignment with the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters' median projection of 1.0% released May 4, alongside similar estimates from the Conference Board and S&P Global at around 1%. This positioning stems from Eurostat's recent confirmation of Q1 2026 GDP at just 0.1% quarter-on-quarter and 0.8% year-on-year—its weakest quarterly pace since Q2 2025—amid surging energy costs from Middle East tensions and softening industrial output. Lower outcomes like 0-1.0% (27%) and contraction (<0%, 23%) capture downside risks from geopolitical shocks, while upside bins above 2% see subdued odds below 20% given structural drags. Upcoming ECB June projections and Q2 data will be key catalysts.
This market will resolve according to the estimation of Euro Area (Eurozone) annual GDP growth for the full year of 2026 (% change), based on seasonally and calendar adjusted quarterly data, as reported in the "GDP and employment flash estimates for the fourth quarter of 2026" flash release for Q4 of 2026, scheduled to be released in January 2027.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the Euro Area GDP growth rate for the full year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the Euro Area GDP growth rate for Q4 2026, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. If no data is released for either the full year or fourth quarter of 2026 by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the Euro Area GDP growth rate for the full year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the Euro Area GDP growth rate for Q4 2026, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. If no data is released for either the full year or fourth quarter of 2026 by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Объем
$8,712Дата окончания
31 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 21, 2026, 7:29 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 69% implied probability for Eurozone annual GDP growth of 1.0-2.0% in 2026, reflecting alignment with the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters' median projection of 1.0% released May 4, alongside similar estimates from the Conference Board and S&P Global at around 1%. This positioning stems from Eurostat's recent confirmation of Q1 2026 GDP at just 0.1% quarter-on-quarter and 0.8% year-on-year—its weakest quarterly pace since Q2 2025—amid surging energy costs from Middle East tensions and softening industrial output. Lower outcomes like 0-1.0% (27%) and contraction (<0%, 23%) capture downside risks from geopolitical shocks, while upside bins above 2% see subdued odds below 20% given structural drags. Upcoming ECB June projections and Q2 data will be key catalysts.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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