Germany’s stronger-than-expected first-half 2026 GDP performance, with Q2 expanding 0.2% quarter-on-quarter after an upwardly revised 0.4% in Q1, has anchored trader expectations for Q3 growth near 1.0-1.2%. Export gains and fiscal stimulus from defense and infrastructure outlays are providing support, while elevated energy prices linked to the Iran conflict and low Rhine water levels are capping momentum. Recent forecasts from the Kiel Institute and Bundesbank point to full-year 2026 expansion of 0.5-1.3%, with Q3 seen as a transitional quarter amid 2.9% August inflation and fragile private consumption. Leading indicators such as the ZEW survey show modest sentiment improvement but remain below pre-conflict levels, leaving room for data surprises around the September and October releases.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено1.0-1.2% 53%
0.7-0.9% 19%
1.3%+ 19%
≤0.0% 5.5%
$34,251 Объем
$34,251 Объем
30 окт. 2026 г.
≤0.0%
6%
0.1-0.3%
6%
0.4-0.6%
5%
0.7-0.9%
19%
1.0-1.2%
53%
1.3%+
19%
1.0-1.2% 53%
0.7-0.9% 19%
1.3%+ 19%
≤0.0% 5.5%
$34,251 Объем
$34,251 Объем
30 окт. 2026 г.
≤0.0%
$1,361 Объем
6%
0.1-0.3%
$1,644 Объем
6%
0.4-0.6%
$700 Объем
5%
0.7-0.9%
$5,794 Объем
19%
1.0-1.2%
$20,450 Объем
53%
1.3%+
$4,302 Объем
19%
This market will resolve according to the German GDP growth rate (% change) on the same quarter a year earlier, price adjusted, as reported in the first release of the Destatis Gross Domestic Product press release for Q3 of 2026, expected to be released on October 30, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/Economy/National-Accounts-Domestic-Product/_node.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
The resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter, or as a part of the next estimate's publication; however, any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.Germany’s stronger-than-expected first-half 2026 GDP performance, with Q2 expanding 0.2% quarter-on-quarter after an upwardly revised 0.4% in Q1, has anchored trader expectations for Q3 growth near 1.0-1.2%. Export gains and fiscal stimulus from defense and infrastructure outlays are providing support, while elevated energy prices linked to the Iran conflict and low Rhine water levels are capping momentum. Recent forecasts from the Kiel Institute and Bundesbank point to full-year 2026 expansion of 0.5-1.3%, with Q3 seen as a transitional quarter amid 2.9% August inflation and fragile private consumption. Leading indicators such as the ZEW survey show modest sentiment improvement but remain below pre-conflict levels, leaving room for data surprises around the September and October releases.
This market will resolve according to the German GDP growth rate (% change) on the same quarter a year earlier, price adjusted, as reported in the first release of the Destatis Gross Domestic Product press release for Q3 of 2026, expected to be released on October 30, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/Economy/National-Accounts-Domestic-Product/_node.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
The resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter, or as a part of the next estimate's publication; however, any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/Economy/National-Accounts-Domestic-Product/_node.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
The resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter, or as a part of the next estimate's publication; however, any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: Jul 31, 2026, 7:28 PM ET
Объем
$34,251Дата окончания
30 окт. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jul 31, 2026, 7:28 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the German GDP growth rate (% change) on the same quarter a year earlier, price adjusted, as reported in the first release of the Destatis Gross Domestic Product press release for Q3 of 2026, expected to be released on October 30, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/Economy/National-Accounts-Domestic-Product/_node.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
The resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter, or as a part of the next estimate's publication; however, any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.Germany’s stronger-than-expected first-half 2026 GDP performance, with Q2 expanding 0.2% quarter-on-quarter after an upwardly revised 0.4% in Q1, has anchored trader expectations for Q3 growth near 1.0-1.2%. Export gains and fiscal stimulus from defense and infrastructure outlays are providing support, while elevated energy prices linked to the Iran conflict and low Rhine water levels are capping momentum. Recent forecasts from the Kiel Institute and Bundesbank point to full-year 2026 expansion of 0.5-1.3%, with Q3 seen as a transitional quarter amid 2.9% August inflation and fragile private consumption. Leading indicators such as the ZEW survey show modest sentiment improvement but remain below pre-conflict levels, leaving room for data surprises around the September and October releases.
This market will resolve according to the German GDP growth rate (% change) on the same quarter a year earlier, price adjusted, as reported in the first release of the Destatis Gross Domestic Product press release for Q3 of 2026, expected to be released on October 30, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/Economy/National-Accounts-Domestic-Product/_node.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
The resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter, or as a part of the next estimate's publication; however, any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/Economy/National-Accounts-Domestic-Product/_node.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
The resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter, or as a part of the next estimate's publication; however, any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Объем
$34,251Дата окончания
30 окт. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jul 31, 2026, 7:28 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...Germany’s stronger-than-expected first-half 2026 GDP performance, with Q2 expanding 0.2% quarter-on-quarter after an upwardly revised 0.4% in Q1, has anchored trader expectations for Q3 growth near 1.0-1.2%. Export gains and fiscal stimulus from defense and infrastructure outlays are providing support, while elevated energy prices linked to the Iran conflict and low Rhine water levels are capping momentum. Recent forecasts from the Kiel Institute and Bundesbank point to full-year 2026 expansion of 0.5-1.3%, with Q3 seen as a transitional quarter amid 2.9% August inflation and fragile private consumption. Leading indicators such as the ZEW survey show modest sentiment improvement but remain below pre-conflict levels, leaving room for data surprises around the September and October releases.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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