Skip to main content
icon for Рост ВВП в 2026 году
Экономика·Экономическая политика

Рост ВВП в 2026 году

icon for Рост ВВП в 2026 году
Экономика·Экономическая политика

Рост ВВП в 2026 году

июл. 30

янв. 29, 2027

июл. 30

янв. 29, 2027

>2,5% 42%

2,0–2,5% 19%

<0,5% 17.8%

1,5–2,0% 16.9%

Polymarket

$28,075 Объем

>2,5% 42%

2,0–2,5% 19%

<0,5% 17.8%

1,5–2,0% 16.9%

Polymarket

$28,075 Объем

<0,5%

$3,879 Объем

18%

0,5–1,0%

$15,278 Объем

12%

1,0–1,5%

$1,535 Объем

12%

1,5–2,0%

$1,504 Объем

17%

2,0–2,5%

$1,819 Объем

22%

>2,5%

$4,061 Объем

42%

This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.Atlanta Fed GDPNow's upgrade to 4.0% for Q2 2026 real GDP growth as of May 14—fueled by stronger-than-expected economic data—has propelled the market-implied probability of full-year growth exceeding 2.5% to 43%, the trader consensus frontrunner on Polymarket. This follows the Bureau of Economic Analysis's April 30 advance estimate of 2.0% Q1 growth, a rebound from Q4 2025's 0.5% but below 2.3% expectations, driven by resilient consumer spending, business investment, and exports. The 26% odds for 2.0–2.5% align with consensus forecasts like Deloitte's 2.2%, while elevated 23% recession risk (<0.5%) reflects labor market softening concerns despite nowcast strength. Upcoming Q2 GDP release in late July and nonfarm payrolls will be pivotal catalysts.

This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product

Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Объем
$28,075
Дата окончания
29 янв. 2027 г.
Открытие рынка
Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.Atlanta Fed GDPNow's upgrade to 4.0% for Q2 2026 real GDP growth as of May 14—fueled by stronger-than-expected economic data—has propelled the market-implied probability of full-year growth exceeding 2.5% to 43%, the trader consensus frontrunner on Polymarket. This follows the Bureau of Economic Analysis's April 30 advance estimate of 2.0% Q1 growth, a rebound from Q4 2025's 0.5% but below 2.3% expectations, driven by resilient consumer spending, business investment, and exports. The 26% odds for 2.0–2.5% align with consensus forecasts like Deloitte's 2.2%, while elevated 23% recession risk (<0.5%) reflects labor market softening concerns despite nowcast strength. Upcoming Q2 GDP release in late July and nonfarm payrolls will be pivotal catalysts.

This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product

Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Объем
$28,075
Дата окончания
29 янв. 2027 г.
Открытие рынка
Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.

Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.

Часто задаваемые вопросы

«Рост ВВП в 2026 году» — это рынок прогнозов на Polymarket с 6 возможными исходами, где трейдеры покупают и продают акции на основе своих прогнозов. Текущий лидирующий исход — «>2,5%» с 42%, за ним следует «2,0–2,5%» с 22%. Цены отражают вероятности сообщества в реальном времени. Например, акция по цене 42¢ означает, что рынок коллективно оценивает вероятность этого исхода в 42%. Эти коэффициенты постоянно меняются. Акции правильного исхода можно обменять на $1 каждую при разрешении рынка.

На сегодняшний день «Рост ВВП в 2026 году» сгенерировал общий объём торгов $28.1K с момента запуска рынка Nov 12, 2025. Такой уровень активности отражает высокую вовлечённость сообщества Polymarket и гарантирует, что текущие коэффициенты формируются широким кругом участников рынка. Ты можешь отслеживать движение цен в реальном времени и торговать любым исходом прямо на этой странице.

Чтобы торговать на «Рост ВВП в 2026 году», просмотри 6 доступных исходов на этой странице. Каждый исход показывает текущую цену, представляющую подразумеваемую вероятность рынка. Чтобы занять позицию, выбери исход, который считаешь наиболее вероятным, выбери «Да» для торговли в его пользу или «Нет» для торговли против, введи сумму и нажми «Торговать». Если твой выбранный исход окажется верным, твои акции «Да» принесут $1 каждая. Если нет — $0. Ты также можешь продать акции до разрешения.

Текущий фаворит для «Рост ВВП в 2026 году» — «>2,5%» с 42%, что означает, что рынок оценивает вероятность этого исхода в 42%. Следующий ближайший исход — «2,0–2,5%» с 22%. Эти коэффициенты обновляются в реальном времени по мере покупки и продажи акций. Заходи чаще или добавь страницу в закладки.

Правила разрешения «Рост ВВП в 2026 году» точно определяют, что должно произойти, чтобы каждый исход был объявлен победителем, включая официальные источники данных, используемые для определения результата. Ты можешь просмотреть полные критерии разрешения в разделе «Правила» на этой странице над комментариями. Мы рекомендуем внимательно прочитать правила перед торговлей, так как они определяют точные условия, особые случаи и источники.