Skip to main content
icon for Рост ВВП в 2026 году
Экономика·Экономическая политика

Рост ВВП в 2026 году

icon for Рост ВВП в 2026 году
Экономика·Экономическая политика

Рост ВВП в 2026 году

окт. 29

янв. 29, 2027

окт. 29

янв. 29, 2027

1,5–2,0% 35.3%

2,0–2,5% 32%

>2,5% 19%

1,0–1,5% 10.2%

Polymarket

$58,052 Объем

1,5–2,0% 35.3%

2,0–2,5% 32%

>2,5% 19%

1,0–1,5% 10.2%

Polymarket

$58,052 Объем

<0,5%

$7,439 Объем

5%

0,5–1,0%

$17,161 Объем

4%

1,0–1,5%

$3,814 Объем

10%

1,5–2,0%

$6,622 Объем

35%

2,0–2,5%

$7,085 Объем

32%

>2,5%

$15,931 Объем

19%

This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on 2026 US GDP growth centers on the 1.5–2.5% range, with the narrow edge for 1.5–2.0% reflecting balanced views on fiscal and investment tailwinds versus persistent headwinds. Recent data show Q1 2026 real GDP expanding at a 1.6% annualized rate, while forecasts from the CBO (2.2%), Vanguard (2.3%), and professional surveys cluster near 2.0–2.5%, supported by AI-driven capex, 2025 reconciliation act effects on consumption and investment, and resilient household wealth. Offsetting factors include tariff impacts on trade flows, reduced immigration slowing labor force growth, and sticky core PCE inflation near 3% that has kept the Fed on hold near 3.5–3.75%. Upcoming labor market releases and inflation prints will likely sharpen differentiation between sub-2% and above-2% scenarios as the year progresses.

This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product

Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Объем
$58,052
Дата окончания
29 янв. 2027 г.
Открытие рынка
Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on 2026 US GDP growth centers on the 1.5–2.5% range, with the narrow edge for 1.5–2.0% reflecting balanced views on fiscal and investment tailwinds versus persistent headwinds. Recent data show Q1 2026 real GDP expanding at a 1.6% annualized rate, while forecasts from the CBO (2.2%), Vanguard (2.3%), and professional surveys cluster near 2.0–2.5%, supported by AI-driven capex, 2025 reconciliation act effects on consumption and investment, and resilient household wealth. Offsetting factors include tariff impacts on trade flows, reduced immigration slowing labor force growth, and sticky core PCE inflation near 3% that has kept the Fed on hold near 3.5–3.75%. Upcoming labor market releases and inflation prints will likely sharpen differentiation between sub-2% and above-2% scenarios as the year progresses.

This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product

Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Объем
$58,052
Дата окончания
29 янв. 2027 г.
Открытие рынка
Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.

Связанные

icon for Отрицательный рост ВВП в 2026 году?

Отрицательный рост ВВП в 2026 году?

4%
Да
icon for Will US GDP growth in Q3 2026 be greater than 3.0%?

Will US GDP growth in Q3 2026 be greater than 3.0%?

33%
icon for Рецессия в США до конца 2026 года?

Рецессия в США до конца 2026 года?

8%
Да

Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.

Часто задаваемые вопросы

«Рост ВВП в 2026 году» — это рынок прогнозов на Polymarket с 6 возможными исходами, где трейдеры покупают и продают акции на основе своих прогнозов. Текущий лидирующий исход — «1,5–2,0%» с 35%, за ним следует «2,0–2,5%» с 32%. Цены отражают вероятности сообщества в реальном времени. Например, акция по цене 35¢ означает, что рынок коллективно оценивает вероятность этого исхода в 35%. Эти коэффициенты постоянно меняются. Акции правильного исхода можно обменять на $1 каждую при разрешении рынка.

На сегодняшний день «Рост ВВП в 2026 году» сгенерировал общий объём торгов $58.1K с момента запуска рынка Nov 12, 2025. Такой уровень активности отражает высокую вовлечённость сообщества Polymarket и гарантирует, что текущие коэффициенты формируются широким кругом участников рынка. Ты можешь отслеживать движение цен в реальном времени и торговать любым исходом прямо на этой странице.

Чтобы торговать на «Рост ВВП в 2026 году», просмотри 6 доступных исходов на этой странице. Каждый исход показывает текущую цену, представляющую подразумеваемую вероятность рынка. Чтобы занять позицию, выбери исход, который считаешь наиболее вероятным, выбери «Да» для торговли в его пользу или «Нет» для торговли против, введи сумму и нажми «Торговать». Если твой выбранный исход окажется верным, твои акции «Да» принесут $1 каждая. Если нет — $0. Ты также можешь продать акции до разрешения.

Текущий фаворит для «Рост ВВП в 2026 году» — «1,5–2,0%» с 35%, что означает, что рынок оценивает вероятность этого исхода в 35%. Следующий ближайший исход — «2,0–2,5%» с 32%. Эти коэффициенты обновляются в реальном времени по мере покупки и продажи акций. Заходи чаще или добавь страницу в закладки.

Правила разрешения «Рост ВВП в 2026 году» точно определяют, что должно произойти, чтобы каждый исход был объявлен победителем, включая официальные источники данных, используемые для определения результата. Ты можешь просмотреть полные критерии разрешения в разделе «Правила» на этой странице над комментариями. Мы рекомендуем внимательно прочитать правила перед торговлей, так как они определяют точные условия, особые случаи и источники.