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1,5–2,0% 35.3%

2,0–2,5% 32%

>2,5% 19%

1,0–1,5% 8.3%

Polymarket

$58,052 Объем

1,5–2,0% 35.3%

2,0–2,5% 32%

>2,5% 19%

1,0–1,5% 8.3%

Polymarket

$58,052 Объем

<0,5%

$7,439 Объем

7%

0,5–1,0%

$17,161 Объем

2%

1,0–1,5%

$3,814 Объем

8%

1,5–2,0%

$6,622 Объем

35%

2,0–2,5%

$7,085 Объем

32%

>2,5%

$15,931 Объем

19%

This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent U.S. GDP prints of 1.6% annualized in Q1 2026 and softer Q2 readings near 1.5%, alongside cooling labor market data, have anchored trader consensus on Polymarket around the 1.5–2.5% bands for full-year growth. Official projections from the CBO and Philadelphia Fed SPF center near 2.2%, reflecting fiscal support from the 2025 reconciliation act and AI-driven capital spending offset by tariff-related drags on consumption, reduced immigration slowing labor-force growth, and above-target inflation that has kept the Federal Reserve on hold. The closely matched 34.4% and 32.0% implied probabilities for the leading ranges underscore uncertainty over whether investment-led momentum can fully counter these headwinds before year-end resolution.

This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product

Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Объем
$58,052
Дата окончания
29 янв. 2027 г.
Открытие рынка
Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ET
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent U.S. GDP prints of 1.6% annualized in Q1 2026 and softer Q2 readings near 1.5%, alongside cooling labor market data, have anchored trader consensus on Polymarket around the 1.5–2.5% bands for full-year growth. Official projections from the CBO and Philadelphia Fed SPF center near 2.2%, reflecting fiscal support from the 2025 reconciliation act and AI-driven capital spending offset by tariff-related drags on consumption, reduced immigration slowing labor-force growth, and above-target inflation that has kept the Federal Reserve on hold. The closely matched 34.4% and 32.0% implied probabilities for the leading ranges underscore uncertainty over whether investment-led momentum can fully counter these headwinds before year-end resolution.

This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product

Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Объем
$58,052
Дата окончания
29 янв. 2027 г.
Открытие рынка
Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ET
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.

Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.

Часто задаваемые вопросы

«Рост ВВП в 2026 году» — это рынок прогнозов на Polymarket с 6 возможными исходами, где трейдеры покупают и продают акции на основе своих прогнозов. Текущий лидирующий исход — «1,5–2,0%» с 35%, за ним следует «2,0–2,5%» с 32%. Цены отражают вероятности сообщества в реальном времени. Например, акция по цене 35¢ означает, что рынок коллективно оценивает вероятность этого исхода в 35%. Эти коэффициенты постоянно меняются. Акции правильного исхода можно обменять на $1 каждую при разрешении рынка.

На сегодняшний день «Рост ВВП в 2026 году» сгенерировал общий объём торгов $58.1K с момента запуска рынка Nov 12, 2025. Такой уровень активности отражает высокую вовлечённость сообщества Polymarket и гарантирует, что текущие коэффициенты формируются широким кругом участников рынка. Ты можешь отслеживать движение цен в реальном времени и торговать любым исходом прямо на этой странице.

Чтобы торговать на «Рост ВВП в 2026 году», просмотри 6 доступных исходов на этой странице. Каждый исход показывает текущую цену, представляющую подразумеваемую вероятность рынка. Чтобы занять позицию, выбери исход, который считаешь наиболее вероятным, выбери «Да» для торговли в его пользу или «Нет» для торговли против, введи сумму и нажми «Торговать». Если твой выбранный исход окажется верным, твои акции «Да» принесут $1 каждая. Если нет — $0. Ты также можешь продать акции до разрешения.

Текущий фаворит для «Рост ВВП в 2026 году» — «1,5–2,0%» с 35%, что означает, что рынок оценивает вероятность этого исхода в 35%. Следующий ближайший исход — «2,0–2,5%» с 32%. Эти коэффициенты обновляются в реальном времени по мере покупки и продажи акций. Заходи чаще или добавь страницу в закладки.

Правила разрешения «Рост ВВП в 2026 году» точно определяют, что должно произойти, чтобы каждый исход был объявлен победителем, включая официальные источники данных, используемые для определения результата. Ты можешь просмотреть полные критерии разрешения в разделе «Правила» на этой странице над комментариями. Мы рекомендуем внимательно прочитать правила перед торговлей, так как они определяют точные условия, особые случаи и источники.