Recent U.S. GDP prints of 1.6% annualized in Q1 2026 and softer Q2 readings near 1.5%, alongside cooling labor market data, have anchored trader consensus on Polymarket around the 1.5–2.5% bands for full-year growth. Official projections from the CBO and Philadelphia Fed SPF center near 2.2%, reflecting fiscal support from the 2025 reconciliation act and AI-driven capital spending offset by tariff-related drags on consumption, reduced immigration slowing labor-force growth, and above-target inflation that has kept the Federal Reserve on hold. The closely matched 34.4% and 32.0% implied probabilities for the leading ranges underscore uncertainty over whether investment-led momentum can fully counter these headwinds before year-end resolution.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоРост ВВП в 2026 году
Рост ВВП в 2026 году
1,5–2,0% 35.3%
2,0–2,5% 32%
>2,5% 19%
1,0–1,5% 8.3%
$58,052 Объем
$58,052 Объем
29 янв. 2027 г.
<0,5%
7%
0,5–1,0%
2%
1,0–1,5%
8%
1,5–2,0%
35%
2,0–2,5%
32%
>2,5%
19%
1,5–2,0% 35.3%
2,0–2,5% 32%
>2,5% 19%
1,0–1,5% 8.3%
$58,052 Объем
$58,052 Объем
29 янв. 2027 г.
<0,5%
$7,439 Объем
7%
0,5–1,0%
$17,161 Объем
2%
1,0–1,5%
$3,814 Объем
8%
1,5–2,0%
$6,622 Объем
35%
2,0–2,5%
$7,085 Объем
32%
>2,5%
$15,931 Объем
19%
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent U.S. GDP prints of 1.6% annualized in Q1 2026 and softer Q2 readings near 1.5%, alongside cooling labor market data, have anchored trader consensus on Polymarket around the 1.5–2.5% bands for full-year growth. Official projections from the CBO and Philadelphia Fed SPF center near 2.2%, reflecting fiscal support from the 2025 reconciliation act and AI-driven capital spending offset by tariff-related drags on consumption, reduced immigration slowing labor-force growth, and above-target inflation that has kept the Federal Reserve on hold. The closely matched 34.4% and 32.0% implied probabilities for the leading ranges underscore uncertainty over whether investment-led momentum can fully counter these headwinds before year-end resolution.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ET
Объем
$58,052Дата окончания
29 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent U.S. GDP prints of 1.6% annualized in Q1 2026 and softer Q2 readings near 1.5%, alongside cooling labor market data, have anchored trader consensus on Polymarket around the 1.5–2.5% bands for full-year growth. Official projections from the CBO and Philadelphia Fed SPF center near 2.2%, reflecting fiscal support from the 2025 reconciliation act and AI-driven capital spending offset by tariff-related drags on consumption, reduced immigration slowing labor-force growth, and above-target inflation that has kept the Federal Reserve on hold. The closely matched 34.4% and 32.0% implied probabilities for the leading ranges underscore uncertainty over whether investment-led momentum can fully counter these headwinds before year-end resolution.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Объем
$58,052Дата окончания
29 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent U.S. GDP prints of 1.6% annualized in Q1 2026 and softer Q2 readings near 1.5%, alongside cooling labor market data, have anchored trader consensus on Polymarket around the 1.5–2.5% bands for full-year growth. Official projections from the CBO and Philadelphia Fed SPF center near 2.2%, reflecting fiscal support from the 2025 reconciliation act and AI-driven capital spending offset by tariff-related drags on consumption, reduced immigration slowing labor-force growth, and above-target inflation that has kept the Federal Reserve on hold. The closely matched 34.4% and 32.0% implied probabilities for the leading ranges underscore uncertainty over whether investment-led momentum can fully counter these headwinds before year-end resolution.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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