Recent high-level bilateral talks between the United States and China, including the Trump-Xi summit concluded on May 15, produced commitments on agricultural purchases, energy sales, and Boeing aircraft but left core tariff structures unchanged. Officials confirmed that tariff reductions were not addressed during the meetings, with the existing truce on reciprocal duties set to run through November. The compressed timeline to May 31 leaves insufficient room for formal negotiations or legislative steps needed to finalize any new agreement. Traders therefore assign an 82.5 percent implied probability to “No,” reflecting the absence of concrete progress on tariff relief despite ongoing diplomatic engagement.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоUS x China tariff agreement by May 31?
US x China tariff agreement by May 31?
$62,473 Объем
$62,473 Объем
31 мая 2026 г.
$62,473 Объем
$62,473 Объем
31 мая 2026 г.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements which do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Recent high-level bilateral talks between the United States and China, including the Trump-Xi summit concluded on May 15, produced commitments on agricultural purchases, energy sales, and Boeing aircraft but left core tariff structures unchanged. Officials confirmed that tariff reductions were not addressed during the meetings, with the existing truce on reciprocal duties set to run through November. The compressed timeline to May 31 leaves insufficient room for formal negotiations or legislative steps needed to finalize any new agreement. Traders therefore assign an 82.5 percent implied probability to “No,” reflecting the absence of concrete progress on tariff relief despite ongoing diplomatic engagement.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements which do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements which do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Открытие рынка: May 5, 2026, 8:03 PM ET
Объем
$62,473Дата окончания
31 мая 2026 г.Открытие рынка
May 5, 2026, 8:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements which do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Recent high-level bilateral talks between the United States and China, including the Trump-Xi summit concluded on May 15, produced commitments on agricultural purchases, energy sales, and Boeing aircraft but left core tariff structures unchanged. Officials confirmed that tariff reductions were not addressed during the meetings, with the existing truce on reciprocal duties set to run through November. The compressed timeline to May 31 leaves insufficient room for formal negotiations or legislative steps needed to finalize any new agreement. Traders therefore assign an 82.5 percent implied probability to “No,” reflecting the absence of concrete progress on tariff relief despite ongoing diplomatic engagement.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements which do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements which do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Объем
$62,509Дата окончания
31 мая 2026 г.Открытие рынка
May 5, 2026, 8:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent high-level bilateral talks between the United States and China, including the Trump-Xi summit concluded on May 15, produced commitments on agricultural purchases, energy sales, and Boeing aircraft but left core tariff structures unchanged. Officials confirmed that tariff reductions were not addressed during the meetings, with the existing truce on reciprocal duties set to run through November. The compressed timeline to May 31 leaves insufficient room for formal negotiations or legislative steps needed to finalize any new agreement. Traders therefore assign an 82.5 percent implied probability to “No,” reflecting the absence of concrete progress on tariff relief despite ongoing diplomatic engagement.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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