Traders assign a 95.7% probability against a direct US-China military clash before 2027 due to sustained deterrence efforts, including the US 2026 National Defense Strategy prioritizing Indo-Pacific capabilities and allied contributions, alongside ongoing Chinese military leadership purges that have disrupted PLA readiness. Cross-strait gray-zone activities, such as ADIZ incursions and drills, continue without escalation to open conflict, while both sides emphasize capability development over immediate confrontation amid economic interdependence and recent US force depletion from other operations. Realistic shifts could arise from a Taiwan Strait miscalculation, rapid changes in Beijing's internal stability, or altered US commitments following elections or policy pivots.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоВоенное столкновение США и Китая до 2027 года?
Военное столкновение США и Китая до 2027 года?
Да
4% вероятность
$194,565 Объем
$194,565 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
Да
4% вероятность
$194,565 Объем
$194,565 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and the United States between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Traders assign a 95.7% probability against a direct US-China military clash before 2027 due to sustained deterrence efforts, including the US 2026 National Defense Strategy prioritizing Indo-Pacific capabilities and allied contributions, alongside ongoing Chinese military leadership purges that have disrupted PLA readiness. Cross-strait gray-zone activities, such as ADIZ incursions and drills, continue without escalation to open conflict, while both sides emphasize capability development over immediate confrontation amid economic interdependence and recent US force depletion from other operations. Realistic shifts could arise from a Taiwan Strait miscalculation, rapid changes in Beijing's internal stability, or altered US commitments following elections or policy pivots.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and the United States between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: Jan 14, 2026, 2:14 PM ET
Объем
$194,565Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 14, 2026, 2:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and the United States between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Traders assign a 95.7% probability against a direct US-China military clash before 2027 due to sustained deterrence efforts, including the US 2026 National Defense Strategy prioritizing Indo-Pacific capabilities and allied contributions, alongside ongoing Chinese military leadership purges that have disrupted PLA readiness. Cross-strait gray-zone activities, such as ADIZ incursions and drills, continue without escalation to open conflict, while both sides emphasize capability development over immediate confrontation amid economic interdependence and recent US force depletion from other operations. Realistic shifts could arise from a Taiwan Strait miscalculation, rapid changes in Beijing's internal stability, or altered US commitments following elections or policy pivots.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and the United States between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$194,565Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 14, 2026, 2:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders assign a 95.7% probability against a direct US-China military clash before 2027 due to sustained deterrence efforts, including the US 2026 National Defense Strategy prioritizing Indo-Pacific capabilities and allied contributions, alongside ongoing Chinese military leadership purges that have disrupted PLA readiness. Cross-strait gray-zone activities, such as ADIZ incursions and drills, continue without escalation to open conflict, while both sides emphasize capability development over immediate confrontation amid economic interdependence and recent US force depletion from other operations. Realistic shifts could arise from a Taiwan Strait miscalculation, rapid changes in Beijing's internal stability, or altered US commitments following elections or policy pivots.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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