Traders assign a 99.3% probability to no Chinese invasion of Taiwan by September 30, 2026, reflecting the absence of observable force concentrations, logistical surges, or leadership directives signaling imminent offensive operations. U.S. intelligence assessments from March 2026 indicate Chinese leaders lack a fixed unification timeline and are unlikely to pursue invasion even into 2027, favoring sustained coercive measures such as reduced but persistent air defense identification zone incursions and coast guard patrols around outlying islands. Taiwan’s ongoing Han Kuang exercises, launched in early August with record reservist mobilization and tests of production relocation plus anti-blockade tactics, underscore defensive preparations without crossing escalation thresholds. High economic, military, and diplomatic costs on a short timeline further anchor consensus against action. Residual uncertainty stems from potential miscalculations during drills, rapid policy shifts, or isolated incidents in the narrow remaining window.