Trader consensus reflected in the 83.5% market-implied odds for “No” stems primarily from the absence of any implemented U.S. action to block public access to major Chinese models such as those from DeepSeek, Moonshot AI, or Alibaba’s Qwen family. Despite September 2026 intelligence advisories accusing these developers of large-scale distillation of U.S. models and ongoing policy debates over export controls or testing requirements, officials have favored targeted chip restrictions, safety evaluations, and procurement rules rather than outright removal. Industry pushback, including letters from major tech firms emphasizing open-weight model benefits, combined with the models’ continued availability on platforms and Hugging Face, has reinforced expectations that broad access will persist through 2026 absent a sudden regulatory shift.