China’s ballistic missile tests remain infrequent public events, with the most recent confirmed submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) firing occurring on July 6, 2026, into the Pacific. Subsequent months have shown a noticeable lull in activity, widely attributed to ongoing purges and leadership changes within the People’s Liberation Army Rocket Force. Traders assign low odds to another launch before year-end because Beijing has historically conducted only a handful of acknowledged long-range or SLBM tests over decades, often tied to specific training cycles or capability milestones rather than routine operations. No official announcements or credible reporting point to scheduled tests in the final months of 2026, and regional diplomatic notifications for prior events underscore the deliberate, non-routine nature of such launches. This pattern supports the current market consensus favoring no qualifying launch by December 31.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоКитай запустит баллистическую ракету к 31 декабря?
Китай запустит баллистическую ракету к 31 декабря?
Да
16% вероятность
$10,189 Объем
$10,189 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
Да
16% вероятность
$10,189 Объем
$10,189 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China launches a ballistic missile between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only launches of ballistic missiles, including intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), and ballistic anti-ship missiles, will qualify toward a “Yes” resolution.
Launches of other systems such as cruise missiles, SAMs, MLRS/rocket artillery, torpedoes, etc., will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution.
The market resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.China’s ballistic missile tests remain infrequent public events, with the most recent confirmed submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) firing occurring on July 6, 2026, into the Pacific. Subsequent months have shown a noticeable lull in activity, widely attributed to ongoing purges and leadership changes within the People’s Liberation Army Rocket Force. Traders assign low odds to another launch before year-end because Beijing has historically conducted only a handful of acknowledged long-range or SLBM tests over decades, often tied to specific training cycles or capability milestones rather than routine operations. No official announcements or credible reporting point to scheduled tests in the final months of 2026, and regional diplomatic notifications for prior events underscore the deliberate, non-routine nature of such launches. This pattern supports the current market consensus favoring no qualifying launch by December 31.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China launches a ballistic missile between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only launches of ballistic missiles, including intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), and ballistic anti-ship missiles, will qualify toward a “Yes” resolution.
Launches of other systems such as cruise missiles, SAMs, MLRS/rocket artillery, torpedoes, etc., will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution.
The market resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.
Only launches of ballistic missiles, including intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), and ballistic anti-ship missiles, will qualify toward a “Yes” resolution.
Launches of other systems such as cruise missiles, SAMs, MLRS/rocket artillery, torpedoes, etc., will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution.
The market resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.
Открытие рынка: Jul 7, 2026, 9:14 PM ET
Объем
$10,189Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Jul 7, 2026, 9:14 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if China launches a ballistic missile between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only launches of ballistic missiles, including intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), and ballistic anti-ship missiles, will qualify toward a “Yes” resolution.
Launches of other systems such as cruise missiles, SAMs, MLRS/rocket artillery, torpedoes, etc., will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution.
The market resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.China’s ballistic missile tests remain infrequent public events, with the most recent confirmed submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) firing occurring on July 6, 2026, into the Pacific. Subsequent months have shown a noticeable lull in activity, widely attributed to ongoing purges and leadership changes within the People’s Liberation Army Rocket Force. Traders assign low odds to another launch before year-end because Beijing has historically conducted only a handful of acknowledged long-range or SLBM tests over decades, often tied to specific training cycles or capability milestones rather than routine operations. No official announcements or credible reporting point to scheduled tests in the final months of 2026, and regional diplomatic notifications for prior events underscore the deliberate, non-routine nature of such launches. This pattern supports the current market consensus favoring no qualifying launch by December 31.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China launches a ballistic missile between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only launches of ballistic missiles, including intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), and ballistic anti-ship missiles, will qualify toward a “Yes” resolution.
Launches of other systems such as cruise missiles, SAMs, MLRS/rocket artillery, torpedoes, etc., will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution.
The market resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.
Only launches of ballistic missiles, including intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), and ballistic anti-ship missiles, will qualify toward a “Yes” resolution.
Launches of other systems such as cruise missiles, SAMs, MLRS/rocket artillery, torpedoes, etc., will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution.
The market resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.
Объем
$10,189Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Jul 7, 2026, 9:14 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...China’s ballistic missile tests remain infrequent public events, with the most recent confirmed submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) firing occurring on July 6, 2026, into the Pacific. Subsequent months have shown a noticeable lull in activity, widely attributed to ongoing purges and leadership changes within the People’s Liberation Army Rocket Force. Traders assign low odds to another launch before year-end because Beijing has historically conducted only a handful of acknowledged long-range or SLBM tests over decades, often tied to specific training cycles or capability milestones rather than routine operations. No official announcements or credible reporting point to scheduled tests in the final months of 2026, and regional diplomatic notifications for prior events underscore the deliberate, non-routine nature of such launches. This pattern supports the current market consensus favoring no qualifying launch by December 31.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
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