Recent U.S.-China summits and related negotiations have produced agricultural purchase commitments, rare earth access understandings, and new bilateral trade and investment boards, sustaining a tariff truce originally extended through November 2026. These steps, alongside prior 2025 reductions in reciprocal duties and exclusions, underpin trader consensus reflected in the 75% implied probability for a formal agreement by December 31. Scheduled follow-up diplomacy and the absence of major escalations in the past month further align with this positioning, though outcomes remain subject to verification of specific tariff terms.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоUS x China tariff agreement by December 31?
US x China tariff agreement by December 31?
$16,236 Объем
$16,236 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
$16,236 Объем
$16,236 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Recent U.S.-China summits and related negotiations have produced agricultural purchase commitments, rare earth access understandings, and new bilateral trade and investment boards, sustaining a tariff truce originally extended through November 2026. These steps, alongside prior 2025 reductions in reciprocal duties and exclusions, underpin trader consensus reflected in the 75% implied probability for a formal agreement by December 31. Scheduled follow-up diplomacy and the absence of major escalations in the past month further align with this positioning, though outcomes remain subject to verification of specific tariff terms.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Открытие рынка: May 29, 2026, 9:10 AM ET
Объем
$16,236Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
May 29, 2026, 9:10 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Recent U.S.-China summits and related negotiations have produced agricultural purchase commitments, rare earth access understandings, and new bilateral trade and investment boards, sustaining a tariff truce originally extended through November 2026. These steps, alongside prior 2025 reductions in reciprocal duties and exclusions, underpin trader consensus reflected in the 75% implied probability for a formal agreement by December 31. Scheduled follow-up diplomacy and the absence of major escalations in the past month further align with this positioning, though outcomes remain subject to verification of specific tariff terms.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Объем
$16,236Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
May 29, 2026, 9:10 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent U.S.-China summits and related negotiations have produced agricultural purchase commitments, rare earth access understandings, and new bilateral trade and investment boards, sustaining a tariff truce originally extended through November 2026. These steps, alongside prior 2025 reductions in reciprocal duties and exclusions, underpin trader consensus reflected in the 75% implied probability for a formal agreement by December 31. Scheduled follow-up diplomacy and the absence of major escalations in the past month further align with this positioning, though outcomes remain subject to verification of specific tariff terms.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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