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icon for Первый тур президентских выборов в Бразилии: доля голосов Лулы?
Мир·Бразилия

Первый тур президентских выборов в Бразилии: доля голосов Лулы?

icon for Первый тур президентских выборов в Бразилии: доля голосов Лулы?
Мир·Бразилия

Первый тур президентских выборов в Бразилии: доля голосов Лулы?

44%+ 42%

41-44% 40%

38–41% 15%

35-38% 4.8%

Polymarket
НОВОЕ

44%+ 42%

41-44% 40%

38–41% 15%

35-38% 4.8%

Polymarket
НОВОЕ

<35%

$353 Объем

4%

35-38%

$417 Объем

5%

38–41%

$727 Объем

15%

41-44%

$1,016 Объем

40%

44%+

$1,231 Объем

42%

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Luis Inácio (Lula) da Silva in the first round of this election. The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market will resolve based on the official vote count. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polling averages place Lula (PT) in the low-to-mid 40s for the October 4 first round, with Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) trailing by 3–8 points and smaller right-wing candidates fragmenting the remaining vote. The latest AtlasIntel survey released September 17 shows Lula at 44.1% and Bolsonaro at 41.7%, while earlier September releases from Datafolha, Quaest, and MDA cluster Lula between 38% and 40%. Traders price the 44%+ bin highest because these figures sit near the upper end of recent ranges, yet the narrow gaps and roughly 15–20% undecided or blank/null voters keep the 41–44% outcome competitive. Central bank rate cuts, campaign positioning ahead of the UN General Assembly, and persistent economic headwinds have not produced decisive shifts, sustaining the tight distribution reflected in current market prices.

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Luis Inácio (Lula) da Silva in the first round of this election.

The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.

This market will resolve based on the official vote count.

If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.

If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Luis Inácio (Lula) da Silva in the first round of this election. The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market will resolve based on the official vote count. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Объем
$3,745
Дата окончания
5 окт. 2026 г.
Открытие рынка
Sep 15, 2026, 10:25 PM ET

Кто определяет исход

0x69c47De9D...
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Luis Inácio (Lula) da Silva in the first round of this election. The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market will resolve based on the official vote count. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polling averages place Lula (PT) in the low-to-mid 40s for the October 4 first round, with Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) trailing by 3–8 points and smaller right-wing candidates fragmenting the remaining vote. The latest AtlasIntel survey released September 17 shows Lula at 44.1% and Bolsonaro at 41.7%, while earlier September releases from Datafolha, Quaest, and MDA cluster Lula between 38% and 40%. Traders price the 44%+ bin highest because these figures sit near the upper end of recent ranges, yet the narrow gaps and roughly 15–20% undecided or blank/null voters keep the 41–44% outcome competitive. Central bank rate cuts, campaign positioning ahead of the UN General Assembly, and persistent economic headwinds have not produced decisive shifts, sustaining the tight distribution reflected in current market prices.

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Luis Inácio (Lula) da Silva in the first round of this election.

The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.

This market will resolve based on the official vote count.

If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.

If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Luis Inácio (Lula) da Silva in the first round of this election. The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market will resolve based on the official vote count. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Объем
$3,745
Дата окончания
5 окт. 2026 г.
Открытие рынка
Sep 15, 2026, 10:25 PM ET

Кто определяет исход

0x69c47De9D...

Связанные

icon for Наберёт ли Флавио Болсонару 39% или более действительных голосов в первом туре президентских выборов в Бразилии в 2026 году?

Наберёт ли Флавио Болсонару 39% или более действительных голосов в первом туре президентских выборов в Бразилии в 2026 году?

76%
Да
icon for Получит ли Ренан Сантос от 2% до 4% действительных голосов в первом туре президентских выборов в Бразилии 2026 года?

Получит ли Ренан Сантос от 2% до 4% действительных голосов в первом туре президентских выборов в Бразилии 2026 года?

37%
Да
icon for Наберёт ли Аугусто Кури 6% или более действительных голосов в первом туре президентских выборов в Бразилии 2026 года?

Наберёт ли Аугусто Кури 6% или более действительных голосов в первом туре президентских выборов в Бразилии 2026 года?

47%
Да

Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.

Часто задаваемые вопросы

«Первый тур президентских выборов в Бразилии: доля голосов Лулы?» — это рынок прогнозов на Polymarket с 5 возможными исходами, где трейдеры покупают и продают акции на основе своих прогнозов. Текущий лидирующий исход — «44%+» с 42%, за ним следует «41-44%» с 40%. Цены отражают вероятности сообщества в реальном времени. Например, акция по цене 42¢ означает, что рынок коллективно оценивает вероятность этого исхода в 42%. Эти коэффициенты постоянно меняются. Акции правильного исхода можно обменять на $1 каждую при разрешении рынка.

«Первый тур президентских выборов в Бразилии: доля голосов Лулы?» — недавно созданный рынок на Polymarket, запущен Sep 15, 2026. Как ранний рынок, это твоя возможность быть среди первых трейдеров, устанавливающих коэффициенты и формирующих начальные ценовые сигналы. Ты также можешь добавить эту страницу в закладки, чтобы следить за объёмом и активностью торгов.

Чтобы торговать на «Первый тур президентских выборов в Бразилии: доля голосов Лулы?», просмотри 5 доступных исходов на этой странице. Каждый исход показывает текущую цену, представляющую подразумеваемую вероятность рынка. Чтобы занять позицию, выбери исход, который считаешь наиболее вероятным, выбери «Да» для торговли в его пользу или «Нет» для торговли против, введи сумму и нажми «Торговать». Если твой выбранный исход окажется верным, твои акции «Да» принесут $1 каждая. Если нет — $0. Ты также можешь продать акции до разрешения.

Текущий фаворит для «Первый тур президентских выборов в Бразилии: доля голосов Лулы?» — «44%+» с 42%, что означает, что рынок оценивает вероятность этого исхода в 42%. Следующий ближайший исход — «41-44%» с 40%. Эти коэффициенты обновляются в реальном времени по мере покупки и продажи акций. Заходи чаще или добавь страницу в закладки.

Правила разрешения «Первый тур президентских выборов в Бразилии: доля голосов Лулы?» точно определяют, что должно произойти, чтобы каждый исход был объявлен победителем, включая официальные источники данных, используемые для определения результата. Ты можешь просмотреть полные критерии разрешения в разделе «Правила» на этой странице над комментариями. Мы рекомендуем внимательно прочитать правила перед торговлей, так как они определяют точные условия, особые случаи и источники.