Recent national polls position Flávio Bolsonaro, the Liberal Party nominee and leading right-wing challenger, in the high 30s to low 40s for Brazil’s October 4 first round, driving trader consensus toward a 39%+ outcome. Surveys released in mid-September, including AtlasIntel at 41.7% and Datafolha at 36%, show him closing gaps with incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva through consolidation of conservative and Bolsonarista voters. Runoff simulations remain statistically tied in multiple polls, reflecting sustained momentum for the senator amid a polarized electorate and limited fragmentation on the right. These trends, stable over the past month, underpin the current implied probabilities ahead of the vote.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено39%+ 88%
36-39% 8.5%
33-36% 1.4%
30-33% 1.2%
$61,379 Объем
$61,379 Объем
4 окт. 2026 г.
<30%
<1%
30-33%
1%
33-36%
1%
36-39%
9%
39%+
88%
39%+ 88%
36-39% 8.5%
33-36% 1.4%
30-33% 1.2%
$61,379 Объем
$61,379 Объем
4 окт. 2026 г.
<30%
$5,085 Объем
<1%
30-33%
$5,230 Объем
1%
33-36%
$6,000 Объем
1%
36-39%
$11,259 Объем
9%
39%+
$33,805 Объем
88%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Flávio Bolsonaro in the first round of this election.
The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent national polls position Flávio Bolsonaro, the Liberal Party nominee and leading right-wing challenger, in the high 30s to low 40s for Brazil’s October 4 first round, driving trader consensus toward a 39%+ outcome. Surveys released in mid-September, including AtlasIntel at 41.7% and Datafolha at 36%, show him closing gaps with incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva through consolidation of conservative and Bolsonarista voters. Runoff simulations remain statistically tied in multiple polls, reflecting sustained momentum for the senator amid a polarized electorate and limited fragmentation on the right. These trends, stable over the past month, underpin the current implied probabilities ahead of the vote.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Flávio Bolsonaro in the first round of this election.
The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Flávio Bolsonaro in the first round of this election.
The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Открытие рынка: Sep 15, 2026, 10:26 PM ET
Объем
$61,379Дата окончания
5 окт. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Sep 15, 2026, 10:26 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Flávio Bolsonaro in the first round of this election.
The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent national polls position Flávio Bolsonaro, the Liberal Party nominee and leading right-wing challenger, in the high 30s to low 40s for Brazil’s October 4 first round, driving trader consensus toward a 39%+ outcome. Surveys released in mid-September, including AtlasIntel at 41.7% and Datafolha at 36%, show him closing gaps with incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva through consolidation of conservative and Bolsonarista voters. Runoff simulations remain statistically tied in multiple polls, reflecting sustained momentum for the senator amid a polarized electorate and limited fragmentation on the right. These trends, stable over the past month, underpin the current implied probabilities ahead of the vote.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Flávio Bolsonaro in the first round of this election.
The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Flávio Bolsonaro in the first round of this election.
The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Объем
$61,379Дата окончания
5 окт. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Sep 15, 2026, 10:26 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...Recent national polls position Flávio Bolsonaro, the Liberal Party nominee and leading right-wing challenger, in the high 30s to low 40s for Brazil’s October 4 first round, driving trader consensus toward a 39%+ outcome. Surveys released in mid-September, including AtlasIntel at 41.7% and Datafolha at 36%, show him closing gaps with incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva through consolidation of conservative and Bolsonarista voters. Runoff simulations remain statistically tied in multiple polls, reflecting sustained momentum for the senator amid a polarized electorate and limited fragmentation on the right. These trends, stable over the past month, underpin the current implied probabilities ahead of the vote.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоСвязанные
Получит ли Лула от 41% до 44% действительных голосов в первом туре президентских выборов в Бразилии 2026 года?
42%
Да
Получит ли Ренан Сантос от 2% до 4% действительных голосов в первом туре президентских выборов в Бразилии 2026 года?
42%
Да
Получит ли Аугусто Кури от 2% до 4% действительных голосов в первом туре президентских выборов в Бразилии в 2026 году?
40%
Да
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Часто задаваемые вопросы