Recent polling from early May, including surveys by Quaest, Ideia, and Futura, shows incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva holding first-round support near 39 percent while Flávio Bolsonaro trails closely at 33–37 percent, with Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, and smaller candidates splitting the balance. This fragmented field, driven by Jair Bolsonaro’s ineligibility and endorsement of his son, keeps no candidate near the 50 percent threshold of valid votes required to avoid a runoff on October 4. Trader consensus for a second-round contest reflects historical patterns in Brazil’s presidential system and the absence of consolidation among opposition contenders that could shift outcomes before the first round.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоДа
$65,530 Объем
$65,530 Объем
4 окт. 2026 г.
Да
$65,530 Объем
$65,530 Объем
4 окт. 2026 г.
Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Brazil on October 4, 2026. A second round will be held if no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any candidate wins this election in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the result of the first round of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polling from early May, including surveys by Quaest, Ideia, and Futura, shows incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva holding first-round support near 39 percent while Flávio Bolsonaro trails closely at 33–37 percent, with Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, and smaller candidates splitting the balance. This fragmented field, driven by Jair Bolsonaro’s ineligibility and endorsement of his son, keeps no candidate near the 50 percent threshold of valid votes required to avoid a runoff on October 4. Trader consensus for a second-round contest reflects historical patterns in Brazil’s presidential system and the absence of consolidation among opposition contenders that could shift outcomes before the first round.
Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Brazil on October 4, 2026. A second round will be held if no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any candidate wins this election in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the result of the first round of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any candidate wins this election in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the result of the first round of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Открытие рынка: Sep 18, 2025, 4:01 PM ET
Объем
$65,530Дата окончания
4 окт. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Sep 18, 2025, 4:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Brazil on October 4, 2026. A second round will be held if no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any candidate wins this election in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the result of the first round of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polling from early May, including surveys by Quaest, Ideia, and Futura, shows incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva holding first-round support near 39 percent while Flávio Bolsonaro trails closely at 33–37 percent, with Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, and smaller candidates splitting the balance. This fragmented field, driven by Jair Bolsonaro’s ineligibility and endorsement of his son, keeps no candidate near the 50 percent threshold of valid votes required to avoid a runoff on October 4. Trader consensus for a second-round contest reflects historical patterns in Brazil’s presidential system and the absence of consolidation among opposition contenders that could shift outcomes before the first round.
Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Brazil on October 4, 2026. A second round will be held if no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any candidate wins this election in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the result of the first round of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any candidate wins this election in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the result of the first round of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Объем
$65,530Дата окончания
4 окт. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Sep 18, 2025, 4:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent polling from early May, including surveys by Quaest, Ideia, and Futura, shows incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva holding first-round support near 39 percent while Flávio Bolsonaro trails closely at 33–37 percent, with Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, and smaller candidates splitting the balance. This fragmented field, driven by Jair Bolsonaro’s ineligibility and endorsement of his son, keeps no candidate near the 50 percent threshold of valid votes required to avoid a runoff on October 4. Trader consensus for a second-round contest reflects historical patterns in Brazil’s presidential system and the absence of consolidation among opposition contenders that could shift outcomes before the first round.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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