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World·Brazil

Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?

icon for Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?
World·Brazil

Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?

15% вероятность
Polymarket

$80,125 Объем

15% вероятность
Polymarket

$80,125 Объем

Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Brazil on October 4, 2026. A second round will be held if no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve to "Yes" if any candidate wins this election in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the result of the first round of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent national polls for Brazil’s October 4, 2026 first-round presidential contest show incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leading with 38–42% support, followed by Flávio Bolsonaro in the low-to-mid 30s and a fragmented field of other candidates each in single digits. The remainder consists of undecided voters and null/blank ballots, typically 10–15%. Because no contender approaches the 50% threshold required for an outright victory under Brazil’s two-round system, the leading outcome remains a runoff between the top two finishers on October 25. Recent surveys from Quaest, Datafolha, and Nexus have shown stable patterns with only marginal shifts in the undecided share, reinforcing trader consensus that an outright first-round win is improbable absent a sharp consolidation of support behind one candidate.

Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Brazil on October 4, 2026. A second round will be held if no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any candidate wins this election in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If the result of the first round of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Объем
$80,125
Дата окончания
4 окт. 2026 г.
Открытие рынка
Sep 18, 2025, 4:01 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Brazil on October 4, 2026. A second round will be held if no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve to "Yes" if any candidate wins this election in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the result of the first round of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Brazil on October 4, 2026. A second round will be held if no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve to "Yes" if any candidate wins this election in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the result of the first round of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent national polls for Brazil’s October 4, 2026 first-round presidential contest show incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leading with 38–42% support, followed by Flávio Bolsonaro in the low-to-mid 30s and a fragmented field of other candidates each in single digits. The remainder consists of undecided voters and null/blank ballots, typically 10–15%. Because no contender approaches the 50% threshold required for an outright victory under Brazil’s two-round system, the leading outcome remains a runoff between the top two finishers on October 25. Recent surveys from Quaest, Datafolha, and Nexus have shown stable patterns with only marginal shifts in the undecided share, reinforcing trader consensus that an outright first-round win is improbable absent a sharp consolidation of support behind one candidate.

Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Brazil on October 4, 2026. A second round will be held if no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any candidate wins this election in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If the result of the first round of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Объем
$80,125
Дата окончания
4 окт. 2026 г.
Открытие рынка
Sep 18, 2025, 4:01 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Brazil on October 4, 2026. A second round will be held if no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve to "Yes" if any candidate wins this election in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the result of the first round of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

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Часто задаваемые вопросы

«Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?» — это рынок прогнозов на Polymarket, где трейдеры покупают и продают акции «Да» или «Нет» в зависимости от того, верят ли они, что это событие произойдёт. Текущая вероятность по мнению сообщества составляет 14% для «Yes». Например, если «Да» торгуется по 14¢, рынок коллективно оценивает вероятность наступления события в 14%. Эти коэффициенты постоянно меняются по мере реакции трейдеров на новые события и информацию. Акции правильного исхода можно обменять на $1 каждую при разрешении рынка.

На сегодняшний день «Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?» сгенерировал общий объём торгов $80.1K с момента запуска рынка Sep 18, 2025. Такой уровень активности отражает высокую вовлечённость сообщества Polymarket и гарантирует, что текущие коэффициенты формируются широким кругом участников рынка. Ты можешь отслеживать движение цен в реальном времени и торговать любым исходом прямо на этой странице.

Чтобы торговать на «Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?», просто выбери, считаешь ли ты, что ответ — «Да» или «Нет». Каждая сторона имеет текущую цену, отражающую подразумеваемую вероятность рынка. Введи сумму и нажми «Торговать». Если ты купишь акции «Да» и исход разрешится как «Да», каждая акция принесёт $1. Если исход — «Нет», твои акции «Да» принесут $0. Ты также можешь продать свои акции в любой момент до разрешения, чтобы зафиксировать прибыль или ограничить убыток.

Текущая вероятность для «Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?» составляет 14% для «Yes». Это означает, что сообщество Polymarket в настоящее время оценивает вероятность наступления этого события в 14%. Эти коэффициенты обновляются в реальном времени на основе реальных сделок, предоставляя постоянно обновляемый сигнал ожиданий рынка.

Правила разрешения «Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?» точно определяют, что должно произойти, чтобы каждый исход был объявлен победителем, включая официальные источники данных, используемые для определения результата. Ты можешь просмотреть полные критерии разрешения в разделе «Правила» на этой странице над комментариями. Мы рекомендуем внимательно прочитать правила перед торговлей, так как они определяют точные условия, особые случаи и источники.