Lucas Ribeiro (PP), the incumbent governor who assumed office in April 2026 following João Azevêdo’s resignation, maintains a consistent lead in recent polling for the October 4 first-round vote. Surveys from AtlasIntel, Quaest, and Real Time Big Data in late August and early September place him at 35–43% support, ahead of Efraim Filho (PL) at 13–31% and Cícero Lucena (MDB) at 18–25%, with smaller shares for remaining registered candidates. Second-round simulations show Ribeiro prevailing over both main challengers. Traders reflect this positioning through elevated implied probability for Ribeiro, driven by his incumbency resources, coalition backing, and stable polling trends with roughly three weeks remaining until the first round. No major late shifts have altered the competitive landscape.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоЛукас Рибейро 82%
Эфраим Фильо 10%
Сисеро Лусена 6%
Нилван Феррейра 1.2%
$62,653 Объем
$62,653 Объем
4 окт. 2026 г.
Лукас Рибейро
82%
Эфраим Фильо
10%
Сисеро Лусена
6%
Нилван Феррейра
1%
Флавио Лусио
1%
Венисиано Витал ду Рего
1%
Ромеро Родригес
<1%
Марсело Кейрога
<1%
Лукас Рибейро 82%
Эфраим Фильо 10%
Сисеро Лусена 6%
Нилван Феррейра 1.2%
$62,653 Объем
$62,653 Объем
4 окт. 2026 г.
Лукас Рибейро
$18,684 Объем
82%
Эфраим Фильо
$14,308 Объем
10%
Сисеро Лусена
$20,569 Объем
6%
Нилван Феррейра
$894 Объем
1%
Флавио Лусио
$876 Объем
1%
Венисиано Витал ду Рего
$2,431 Объем
1%
Ромеро Родригес
$1,511 Объем
<1%
Марсело Кейрога
$3,381 Объем
<1%
The Paraíba gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Lucas Ribeiro (PP), the incumbent governor who assumed office in April 2026 following João Azevêdo’s resignation, maintains a consistent lead in recent polling for the October 4 first-round vote. Surveys from AtlasIntel, Quaest, and Real Time Big Data in late August and early September place him at 35–43% support, ahead of Efraim Filho (PL) at 13–31% and Cícero Lucena (MDB) at 18–25%, with smaller shares for remaining registered candidates. Second-round simulations show Ribeiro prevailing over both main challengers. Traders reflect this positioning through elevated implied probability for Ribeiro, driven by his incumbency resources, coalition backing, and stable polling trends with roughly three weeks remaining until the first round. No major late shifts have altered the competitive landscape.
The Paraíba gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Открытие рынка: Jun 12, 2026, 10:39 AM ET
Объем
$62,653Дата окончания
5 окт. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jun 12, 2026, 10:39 AM ETКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...The Paraíba gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Lucas Ribeiro (PP), the incumbent governor who assumed office in April 2026 following João Azevêdo’s resignation, maintains a consistent lead in recent polling for the October 4 first-round vote. Surveys from AtlasIntel, Quaest, and Real Time Big Data in late August and early September place him at 35–43% support, ahead of Efraim Filho (PL) at 13–31% and Cícero Lucena (MDB) at 18–25%, with smaller shares for remaining registered candidates. Second-round simulations show Ribeiro prevailing over both main challengers. Traders reflect this positioning through elevated implied probability for Ribeiro, driven by his incumbency resources, coalition backing, and stable polling trends with roughly three weeks remaining until the first round. No major late shifts have altered the competitive landscape.
The Paraíba gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Объем
$62,653Дата окончания
5 окт. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jun 12, 2026, 10:39 AM ETКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...Lucas Ribeiro (PP), the incumbent governor who assumed office in April 2026 following João Azevêdo’s resignation, maintains a consistent lead in recent polling for the October 4 first-round vote. Surveys from AtlasIntel, Quaest, and Real Time Big Data in late August and early September place him at 35–43% support, ahead of Efraim Filho (PL) at 13–31% and Cícero Lucena (MDB) at 18–25%, with smaller shares for remaining registered candidates. Second-round simulations show Ribeiro prevailing over both main challengers. Traders reflect this positioning through elevated implied probability for Ribeiro, driven by his incumbency resources, coalition backing, and stable polling trends with roughly three weeks remaining until the first round. No major late shifts have altered the competitive landscape.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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